US Election Week Results 2020

[Kate]

Did CNN woman just pronounce "buoy" as "booey"?

 

[Eddie]

This is going to be so protracted. Even if Biden declares victory later today it is going to be days, nay weeks of legal wrangling to look forward to.

 

[Eddie]

This is going to be so protracted. Even if Biden declares victory later today it is going to be days, nay weeks of legal wrangling to look forward to.

 

[Kate]

Did CNN woman just pronounce "buoy" as "booey"?

Apparently this is standard in the US. Well, you learn something every day.

Lindsey Gram must be boo-eed by his win. I wonder if Larry Creg will call to congratulate him.

 

[Jark]

I've skimmed the contributions fresh from my nap. just to say @Jark I think you've massively misunderstood how polling works and that yeah, 538 have done a reasonable job in predicting this election, and more widely we are seeing the most talked about scenario that we were likely to see going into this election. None of what happened has been a MASSIVE surprise. There is definitely district level swing weirdness that will need to be investigated, but it's not been enough to really justify throwing out polls and polling.

The eventual outcome (the person in the white house) may turn out to be what has been predicted - a presidency decided by postal voting - but my point is that the results we're seeing (even Biden's wins) skew so much more heavily in Trump's favour than the polls (which, let us not forget, were so rosy for Biden that Penelope predicted a landslide victory of 350+ votes) suggested, everywhere, that it's clear that polling methods continue to be way off and therefore that treating these people as experts is not justified anymore. We may be lucky and see a narrow Biden win - it's far from the easy victory the polls predicted. And it's not a surprise, so why couldn't they catch it?

I don't need you to agree, but I have not misunderstood anything.

 

[Zu]

This is going to be so protracted. Even if Biden declares victory later today it is going to be days, nay weeks of legal wrangling to look forward to.

Can’t stand a sore loser. Writes sore loser

 

[ZenGiraffe]

Penelope predicted a landslide victory of 350+ votes

Let me be clear. This was always a nonsense

 

[Jark]

Let me be clear. This was always a nonsense

Perhaps I should put my opinion differently - the science of polling is not a science, it's guesswork based on outdated methods and should not be treated with the (cautious) respect or reverence that it is, to the point that people are surprised about a tight race because the polls said otherwise.

 

[Eddie]

I was pop-pooed on here when I suggested weeks ago that a Trump defeat wasn't a foregone conclusion.

 

[Lucille]

 

[ButterTart]

Did CNN woman just pronounce "buoy" as "booey"?

Anderson Cooper also just called Twitter ‘Clitter’. They’re on their arse.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

Perhaps I should put my opinion differently - the science of polling is not a science, it's guesswork based on outdated methods and should not be treated with the (cautious) respect or reverence that it is, to the point that people are surprised about a tight race because the polls said otherwise.

The polls never said otherwise, this was always a strong possibility entirely within the margin of error. Do people need to be better educated on what polls mean? Yes, and it's why a lot of language around polling has changed already.

Also I think scientific guesswork is a reasonable description of what polling actually is.

 

[Eddie]

Anderson Cooper also just called Twitter ‘Clitter’. They’re on their arse.

I saw that. I've noticed ALL the CNN reporters are tripping over their words.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

Trump has this weird obsession with "finding votes". It's such an odd concept that there's just piles and boxes of votes hiding ready to ruin his big victory. He really is the oddest high profile American since Michael Jackson.

 

[Eddie]

Trump has this weird obsession with "finding votes". It's such an odd concept that there's just piles and boxes of votes hiding ready to ruin his big victory. He really is the oddest high profile American since Michael Jackson.

He is alluding to postal votes is he not?

 

[cwej]

Nevada are such drama queens by abandoning their count for the day.
If Biden can come through with WI/MI and NV he can just scrape through as winner and bring the world a small sigh of relief (for a MOMENT at least)

surely SOMEONE can get their fucking abacus out and get on with it? ANYONE (that voted Democrat).

 

[RS]

@RaspberrySwirl

Biden has 227 electoral college votes atm (without Arizona). He needs 43 more (270)

Arizona - 11 votes
Georgia - 16 votes
Michigan - 16 votes
Nevada - 6 votes
Pennsylvania - 20 votes
Wisconsin - 10 votes

Fuck! I was hoping Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin (which I thought was done counting) were going to be enough without the rest of the rust belt and Georgia.

 

[Zu]

I think I may be so bold as to suggest that the woman from Black Voices For Trump on BBC News needs to take a look at her choices

 

[Phoenix]

Anderson Cooper also just called Twitter ‘Clitter’. They’re on their arse.

Did he tee hee hee after? He does have a cute giggle.

 

[AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaAAaaaA]

I can't with queens online falling out about Biden being a terrible president before he's even CONFIRMED! (not aimed at anybody here, just a general RANT, there's 10,000 Twitter threads popped up over the last few hours)

I KNOW he's going to be a terrible lame duck president, I know he's a weak candidate - can we not just have ONE MINUTE to reflect on Trump being chucked out before the bickering starts.

 

[Kate]

CNN finally call Wisconsin for Biden

 

[VoR]

CNN FINALLY projecting Wisconsin for Biden

 

[win_the_game]

Trump's team have filed a lawsuit to halt vote counting in Michigan. On the grounds that they've not had access to some counting locations to watch ballots being opened and counted.

 

[SDF]

The left always eats itself first hun

 

[cwej]

Can we not just get half of California to relocate to the rust belt over the next 4 years?

Would save all this FAFF

Well we’ve already got half of them to relocate to Arizona for this very purpose...!

 

[cwej]

This is not about gut feeling, it's actually just common sense. Nate Silver (who I actually like btw) says "well we gave Biden a 90% chance of winning - if he doesn't win it's not that we got it wrong, it's that this time was the one time in ten he doesn't win".

But that’s literally the point of statistics and probability. No one can definitively predict the future - they can only predict the likelihood using the best statistical modelling they can.

 

[Dark Carnival]

I've skimmed the contributions fresh from my nap. just to say @Jark I think you've massively misunderstood how polling works and that yeah, 538 have done a reasonable job in predicting this election, and more widely we are seeing the most talked about scenario that we were likely to see going into this election. None of what happened has been a MASSIVE surprise. There is definitely district level swing weirdness that will need to be investigated, but it's not been enough to really justify throwing out polls and polling.

On the contrary, I'd argue that polls have done an AWFUL job (not talking about the 538 model here because obviously they work with what they get). And that in a year where they were actively working on correcting issues from the 2016 election, which makes it even worse.

The 'weirdness' you're talking about is always going to happen because that's how statistics work, except random error happens on both sides. The polls have been consistently wrong on just one side and that's a systematic error ie they're precise (consistently getting the same result) but not accurate (way off target). The models they're based on need to be completely re-evaluated.

 

[Zu]

Trump's team have filed a lawsuit to halt vote counting in Michigan. On the grounds that they've not had access to some counting locations to watch ballots being opened and counted.

I‘m going to take the same approach to the unveiling of votes in the next ASFM if I‘m displeased with how it‘s going for Zukland

 

[cwej]

Trump's lead in Georgia is 87,000 and there are still 200,000 votes to be counted, almost all from Atlanta. Its a toss up at this point.

I’m really feeling the Georgia story. They’ve been trying So Hard To knock out Republicans for the last 4 years and they keep getting so close. Think they’re going to just fall short again though.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

I can't with queens online falling out about Biden being a terrible president before he's even CONFIRMED! (not aimed at anybody here, just a general RANT, there's 10,000 Twitter threads popped up over the last few hours)

I KNOW he's going to be a terrible lame duck president, I know he's a weak candidate - can we not just have ONE MINUTE to reflect on Trump being chucked out before the bickering starts.

This is IT. This is what we wanted. I don't think anyone is quite ready for a world where Trump will no longer be President. I'm happy to enjoy for a period before the troubles begin for Biden. Also I don't live there, so WHO CARES? (Sorry actual American posters - appreciate the added insight xxx).

 

[AGinAg (37)]

Biden needs to get what 56% of the remaining Georgia voters I think. I can't see that happening.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

What's up with North Carolina? Not heard from there since the middle of last night.

 

[Dark Carnival]

What's up with North Carolina? Not heard from there since the middle of last night.

Waiting for the mail. I reckon nothing's going to happen there until a couple of days.

 

[RJN]

I’m really feeling the Georgia story. They’ve been trying So Hard To knock out Republicans for the last 4 years and they keep getting so close. Think they’re going to just fall short again though.

I swear we (Democrats) make up the majority here. It really feels like they are trying to stop us from voting. In 2016, my sister’s ballot was never accepted, and she is a fairly privileged white woman! I can’t imagine how it feels for people of color here. The fact that it might be happening again is so infuriating.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

It's been a long day, so apologies for the delay... is Wisconsin the first projected swing?

 

[Jark]

But that’s literally the point of statistics and probability. No one can definitively predict the future - they can only predict the likelihood using the best statistical modelling they can.

I understand that they cannot literally predict to the dot how people will vote, but clearly the best statistical modeling they have is not good enough anymore. And in a world in which you can discuss something with your friends and then a targeted ad pops up the next time you open your phone, finding out how people will vote by calling up 800 of them in a state of 5m people and asking them to give honest answers to a stranger feels... at best, antiquated. Just my view.

 

[Madison]

It's been a long day, so apologies for the delay... is Wisconsin the first projected swing?

No. NE-2 is a Dem gain.

 

[VoR]

Arizona was projected by the AP quite early this morning, but CNN are holding off.

 

[Jark]

Glad to see NYT have officially called Wisconsin for Biden now. Trump can't request a recount for 10 days apparently.

 

[Madison]

Biden needs to get what 56% of the remaining Georgia voters I think. I can't see that happening.

The Needle is still optimistic.

I think these are absentee ballots from the Atlanta and so could be very good.