US Election Week Results 2020

Make your final predictions...

  • I predict Trump will win comfortably

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I predict Trump will win narrowly

    Votes: 10 25.0%

  • I predict a tie

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I predict Biden will win narrowly

    Votes: 16 40.0%

  • I predict Biden will win comfortably

    Votes: 11 27.5%

  • ---

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I predict the Democrats will win the Senate

    Votes: 22 55.0%

  • I predict the Republicans will win the Senate

    Votes: 8 20.0%

  • ---

    Votes: 1 2.5%

  • I predict the Democrats will win the House

    Votes: 26 65.0%

  • I predict the Republicans will win the house

    Votes: 1 2.5%

  • ---

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I predict Florida will go to Trump

    Votes: 19 47.5%

  • I predict Florida will go to Biden

    Votes: 10 25.0%

  • ---

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I predict Texas will go to Trump

    Votes: 26 65.0%

  • I predict Texas will go to Biden

    Votes: 3 7.5%

  • ---

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I predict Donald Trump will concede on election night

    Votes: 2 5.0%

  • I predict Donald Trump will declare victory on election night

    Votes: 22 55.0%

  • ---

    Votes: 1 2.5%

  • I predict Donald Trump will steal the election via the Supreme Court

    Votes: 2 5.0%

  • I predict a riot

    Votes: 25 62.5%
  • Total voters
    40
ZenGiraffe said:
It is a risky strategy, but I don't think it can be dismissed as easily as our centrists friends often do. Electorates are complicated, hard to predict and understand, and this is a position that hasn't been tested properly nationally in the US so I find the certainty with which it is being dismissed misplaced
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Sorry to do the old Corbyn/Sanders comparison again, and YES Sanders is much more moderate / less problematic than JC was, but you seem to be arguing that a more radical form of leftism is the way to motivate a game-changing voter surge, and that WAS tested here in the UK last year under not dissimilar circumstances, and it failed absolutely miserably.
 
cwej said:
well yes there are pockets all over I can see that and obviously don’t have the experience of living there so I’m sure you know more.

but I am just astounded at how many people kept banging on about socialism, over and over and over throughout the election night, when Biden is barely left of centre. There’s a complete lack of understanding of what socialism is throughout your country, which is unique to America. Maybe I shouldn’t have highlighted California and NY as exceptions, but the point is pretty much everywhere you go in America, more people are terrified of the word socialism than turned on by it.
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This is why I was a Warren fan. I felt she had the best ability to move the overton window left whilst using the language that Americans like to hear.
 
And again it's worth remembering that the turnout at this election is a record high, and while the polls overestimated the Blue wave, Biden DOES look on track for a pretty convincing win.

The Senate thing is a real problem, but it's unclear what would have made that better, if anything.
 
ZenGiraffe said:
This is why I was a Warren fan. I felt she had the best ability to move the overton window left whilst using the language that Americans like to hear.
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Do you think she had a hope in hell of winning this election if she was the Democratic candidate though?

She would have turned off all those white men votes that Biden picked up for a start.
 
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VoR said:
I really can't imagine there'd be a significant window for swing between Trump and Bernie Sanders.
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There would be more than you'd think! Even going back to the 60s, pollsters were baffled that a lot of voters (particularly the more down and out) would have first and second preferences for George Wallace (an even more openly racist Trump before Trump segregationist candidate from Alabama) and Robert F Kennedy (liberal icon who ended up getting shot when he ran for president in 1968), in either order. Even though their politics seemed polar opposite, it was the fact they used populist framing and language to make people feel like they were on their side that ultimately appealed - the prescription didn't matter so much.

(now of course, RFK didn't get the chance to go up against Wallace in the end, so it's still untested which would be more powerful an appeal out of populism + big welfare state vs populism + Jim Crow in a general election)

That said, obviously even if that swing did manifest (and I think it would've been on dodgier ground in an election where Trump was the incumbent), the number of voters who went for Biden who'd be potentially massively put off by Sanders feels, to me, likely an overall net loss. I genuinely doubt the Dems could've put up a more effective vote-getting candidate than Biden this time (all the other alternatives have very, very clear weaknesses with some demographic or another), and consider the close run more a testament to the power of fascist messaging than anything else. It sticks in my mind that the only way we stopped fascism last time wasn't at the ballot box, but by murdering everyone who advocated it and having a 60-year cordon sanitaire against political parties that avowedly used that sort of messaging in western politics.
 
cwej said:
well yes there are pockets all over I can see that and obviously don’t have the experience of living there so I’m sure you know more.

but I am just astounded at how many people kept banging on about socialism, over and over and over throughout the election night, when Biden is barely left of centre. There’s a complete lack of understanding of what socialism is throughout your country, which is unique to America. Maybe I shouldn’t have highlighted California and NY as exceptions, but the point is pretty much everywhere you go in America, more people are terrified of the word socialism than turned on by it.
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https://www.pewresearch.org/politic...-americans-views-of-socialism-and-capitalism/

42% of Americans have a favorable view of socialism. That is not the majority, but it is close, and I bet it is the majority of young people.

I am not trying to be some American apologist, since we are so fucked up in so many ways. However, despite some horrific election results, I think that the electorate is growing more progressive and, yes, socialist.
 
Corbyn was a failure of person, not platform though. And the simple message of Get Brexit Done is a unique variable in analysing why progressives failed in England and Wales last year.

Though retreading the UK election in this thread is pointless.
 
How would you rank the remaining states in order of likelihood to go blue?

Something like:

NV > GA > PA > AZ > NC > AK ?
 
Arizona has been SUCH an annoying little bitch in this election, it's really hard to find concrete information as to what's going on there as there's so much conflicting stuff/out of date stuff being resurfaced.

The Guardian have this as their latest update -
Trump would have to receive at least 57 percent of votes that remain to be counted in other parts of the state as well, including counties that tend to vote Democratic.

Biden’s narrow edge underscored a profound political shift in Arizona, a longtime Republican bastion that has lurched left in recent years, fueled by rapidly evolving demographics and a growing contingent of young Latino voters who favor liberal policies.

But they did essentially admit this morning that Arizona was probably called too early and may flip to Trump - but they still have the vote count on their tally.

Hoping Georgia and Nevada call for Biden SOON so none of this even matters :D
 
Madison said:
How would you rank the remaining states in order of likelihood to go blue?

Something like:

NV > GA > PA > AZ > NC > AK ?
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NV > PA > GA > AZ - These four seem likely to me

NC - Seems unlikely

AK- Not gonna happen
 
Alaska isn't remotely in play, is it? They're just incredibly slow (and their ballots are taking a long time to be counted too :basil:)
 
Ooh. I just found some Betfair individual state markets. They have PA > AZ > GA.

(Although I’m starting to understand why Nate Silver sneeringly mocks betting markets. They’ve been really weird the last few days).
 
VoR said:
Alaska isn't remotely in play, is it? They're just incredibly slow (and their ballots are taking a long time to be counted too :basil:)
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Only in a dream scenario that didn’t happen
 
Was there any update on the undelivered UPS ballots, particularly in Georgia where I assume those numbers will matter the most?

That story seems to have just VANISHED!
 
Eddie said:
Do you think she had a hope in hell of winning this election if she was the Democratic candidate though?

She would have turned off all those white men votes that Biden picked up for a start.
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A hope? Yes. I doubt it would be easy, but as we are seeing the safest choice also had a difficult time getting the presidency (and to be fair, might still not).
 
It's a bit like the world cup final has gone to penalties, but its still a draw so they've all gone home for a rest and are going to come back and try again later.
 
OMG this is where our Bev sticks her no drag knowledge mouth in.

To be fair to @COB's original post, the question of non-voters IS actually quite important. Data suggests that the people most likely to not vote are immigrants, the working class, POC; and they are people who actually happen to be sympathetic to progressive policies and ideas (the data suggest). Reaching out to those people has proven to yield results, as Ilhan Omar's primary showed. And yet, this election has fixated on getting Trump out, in appealing to white folk, often at the expense of others. But Trump, as we all know, is the symbol and symptom of American democratic rot, not its cause. So, sure, Biden got the biggest vote share ever or whatever, but this is politics. Persuading people is the name of the game. So what happens afterwards, when the bogeyman isn't in office? What will the democrats do, what platform will they rely on to stay in power?
 
Lucille said:
I mean honestly, we manage to get our results in 6 hours with nothing more than a handful of pensioners in a sports hall.
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Watching this has made me so happy for (elements of) our system. Just for a moment imagine the people that Trump would have to stand next to as his count is announced.
 
VoR said:
I really can't imagine there'd be a significant window for swing between Trump and Bernie Sanders. So you're relying on a HUGE uptick from people who didn't care to vote at all in this election, and given the turnout and tenor of this election, I just don't see that.
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There is a huge part of working class that could be potential voters that would swing from Trump to more progressive/socialist light candidate.

This would however only work if it’s someone that is only fiscally progressive. But progressive nowadays comes with a lot of more progressive social reforms that these groups absolutely hate.

So the only way someone like Bernie will be able to win them over would have to be to the right on social issues.
 
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