General Election 2019

  • Thread starter Thread starter AGinAg (37)
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Who are you planning to vote for?

  • Brexit Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Change UK (Independent Group For Change)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Conservative Party

    Votes: 2 4.1%

  • Democratic Union Party (DUP)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Green Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Independent

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Labour Party

    Votes: 35 71.4%

  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 7 14.3%

  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Sinn Féin

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Scottish National Party (SNP)

    Votes: 2 4.1%

  • UK Independence Party (UKIP)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Other

    Votes: 3 6.1%
  • Total voters
    49
Ag said:
We still on the Jews... what about the NHS!
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Well quite. The only 1 person I've seen trying to squirm out of that has been someone posting a link to Guido. Honestly.
 
I know nobody believes in polls around here, but this is the one that correctly predicted the result of the 2017 election. It's not good news...

The YouGov poll for the Times suggests that, were the election to be held right now, the Conservatives could win 359 seats, against 211 for Labour, 43 for the SNP 43 and 13 for the Lib Dems 13.

Those results would see the Tories up 42 seats on 2017 and Labour down 51.

The paper reports that the seat-by-seat analysis was based on more than 100,000 interviews conducted over seven days and produced using a polling model that accurately predicted the outcome of the 2017 election.

As expected, the key thing deciding the extent to which each of these seats is moving against Labour are how that seat voted in the European Union referendum. In the seats that voted most strongly to Leave in 2016 (60% or more in favour of departing the EU), the swing to the Conservatives is over 6%.

This is allowing the Tories to overturn quite substantial majorities in places like West Bromwich East, the seat held until recently by Tom Watson, and Don Valley, the seat currently held by Caroline Flint.

The only silver lining for Labour is that there are still 30 seats where it is currently 5% or less behind the Tories. If it can manage to squeeze the gap over the coming fortnight it may be able to paste over the cracks in their so-called red wall. But, with just two weeks to go, time is running out for Labour.
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In what way did YouGov correctly predict the 2017 election? Their last poll for that election underestimated labour by 6% compared to the actual share.
 
Trying to look through every poll from last time but can't for the life of me find anything done by yougov that was remotely close.
 
It's the MRP Indiebobs

The one that called Kensington and Canterbury for Labour last time
 
Caroline Flint losing her seat to the very people she's spent the past 3 years pandering to would give me a tiny sliver of grim satisfaction, if nothing else.
 
It's so fucking depressing. People are so fucking thick. It's time for a proper, all out nuclear calamity, I reckon.

Or maybe Yellowstone will finally blow.
 
At which point all of the Tories will retire to their summer palace on the Moon, leaving the rest of us to fight it out like rats. Much like is going to happen after the election, really.
 
I've just seen the likely polling in Colchester...

Cons 48%
Labour 30%
Lib Dems 18%
Green 4%

:greta:
 
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Here's a depressing statistic: only two Labour leaders have won general elections since 1951.
 
Lucille said:
You don’t have to be MYSTIC MEG to know how this is gonna go down. Let’s skip THE POLLS and pass the CYANIDE PILLS.
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This, basically. We all know how is this is going to go.

Those polls don´t suprise me at all.
 
Oh cheer up - with the icecaps thawing, all sorts of dormant diseases are coming out to play. Hopefully, one of them will kill us all.
 
I don't know why I'm so invested I'm fucking off again next year.
 
The one teeny tiny positive will be when the Brexiters find they can't just fuck off to Spain or, better still, are refused residency and have to come back to the UK.

Which, of course, will be Bojo's cue for a war.
 
It’ll be fun to see the Tory Gays moan when they have to pay £300 to visit the GUM clinic.
 
This is a good, if depressing thread. Basically, outside of the youth demographic, the majority of potential floating voters just can't stomach the idea of Corbyn as PM.

 
The current polling in Portsmouth puts our Labour MP ahead by 6% over the Tory, with the Lib Dems (who were claiming early on in the campaign to be leading the polls in Portsmouth South) on 16% :basil:

What COMPLETELY FUCKS ME OFF about the whole thing is that the Labour MP has vowed to have a clean fight and implored the others to do the same and has, so far, not done anything but positive campaigning. The local newspapers asked for opinions and the Lib Dem did the "Oh polls can be wrong thing", but not much else, whereas the Tory, who was elected leader of the council under a completely false "I will not get into titfortat playground politics" banner has responded with nothing more than the Tory "If you vote for Stephen Morgan, you are letting Jeremy Corbyn in and he's A DANGEROUS TERRORIST" line. Do they literally have nothing else of substance to say?

I pray that the polls are right, for once- seeing that RICH SMUG BITCH in power might very well be the end of me...
 
I'd be utterly amazed if my constituency ended up with anything but a solid (but slightly reduced - greens didnt bother last time and lib dems have definitely resurged locally) labour victory.

I've already had my moment of the campaign when I told the green candidate who said "it's us or labour here" that he was talking absolute bullshit.
 
Wow. Apart from the mad american on the end, that question time was definitely won by the left wingers. Plenty of boos and laughter aimed at the tories.
 
I am IN NO WAY getting my hopes up.

But the shit around the 19000 "extra but already existing nurses", Michael Gove and Boris Johnson's dad getting turned away from Channel 4, BJ failing to do an Andrew Neill interview and the question time audience fully getting behind a) the Muslim women laying into BJ and b) the black woman absolutely destroying the press absolutely give me some joy in my life.

This isn't going to be won in any way. Won't mention anything about tide. But there's some difficult times coming for the tories.
 
Would also like to pay homage to one of my old economics lecturers who was one of the 150 to sign the letter which supported labour's spending plans. Always knew he was good.
 
I cannot remember the Tories ever running a worse campaign than they are this time round and yet our disgusting country are still going to vote for them in an absolute landslide. I WANT IT ALL TO END.
 
What happens if it's another hung parliament? The DUP wouldn't be up for another go around, surely.
 
This really has been the most BORING campaign. I think we'd been spoilt with the theatrics of Parliament.
 
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