2020 USA Presidential Elections (1 Viewer)

Four more years?

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ameraal said:
i'm not curious at all.

the chorus changed from "believe women!" to "women should be heard" in the blink of an eye when it came to one of "our own".
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Call it a morbid curiosity. I think we have the same idea of what will happen, although I'm mildly surprised they're covering it.
 
Mugatu said:
Warren may be a relatively left-wing member of a potential Biden cabinet, but I don't personally believe she would "push Biden left" economically. We all know a Biden administration would be stacked full of the same Wall Street execs as Obama's cabinet. The Biden camp have also considered big bankers like Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan, pre-massive heart attack) and Larry Fink (BlackRock) for Treasury. Where's the consistency there?

Warren would just be a token pick to throw to the left, the ideological thrust is in completely the other way. The CFPB certainly ended up being pretty toothless, despite all of her bluster. If I were her, I'd just stay in the Senate.
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This is what I was talking about. Summers is one of the last people who should be in charge of reviving the economy after the pandemic.

He watered down the stimulus package under Obama, encouraged him to cut Medicaid, and he was a massive proponent of Wall Street deregulation and free trade with China under Clinton. (obligatory Jeffrey Epstein connection
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I don't think Warren would be willing to work alongside Summers anyway, given their personal history (she's credited with stopping him from becoming chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2013), but it shows the folly of expecting a Biden administration to be meaningfully "pushed left" on economic issues.
 
It was obviously a formality, but Biden has now officially secured the Democratic nomination.

Interested to know if any of the 21 ‘Trump will win’ voters in our poll have changed their minds based on recent events?
 
I think it's quite impossible to tell from this point, a lot can happen in 4 months as we've all seen.
 
I still think Trump will win. His support base are 100% behind him.

No amount of facts or reality will counter their blind faith in Trump or the Republicans.
 
VoR said:
It was obviously a formality, but Biden has now officially secured the Democratic nomination.

Interested to know if any of the 21 ‘Trump will win’ voters in our poll have changed their minds based on recent events?
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I still think Trump will win. It may be even tighter than last time however if that's even possible. Biden is a lousy candidate.
 
Of course the post lockdown economy may be the only reason to tilt it Biden's way.
 
VoR said:
It was obviously a formality, but Biden has now officially secured the Democratic nomination.

Interested to know if any of the 21 ‘Trump will win’ voters in our poll have changed their minds based on recent events?
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It’s going to be a LOT closer than originally thought. Coming into the start of the year it looked certain Trump would win but I’m not 100% sure, but still tilting towards a narrow win for him, probably under 300 electoral votes.
 
Not to in any way diminish what a deeply racist and fucked up country the USA is, but I still think Trump’s victory in 2016 was an aberration based on a very specific set of circumstances. (Novelty, complacency, the deep unpopularity of Hilary and, yes, the rise of ‘tea party’ / MAGA finding its perfect figurehead)

Biden strikes me as somebody that moderate republicans - and they do exist - could potentially hold their noses and vote for. I don’t think that would’ve been the case with Bernie, and the last few weeks have removed any ambiguity that a vote for Trump is a vote for white supremacy.

I’m cautiously hopeful.
 
Soldi said:
It’s going to be a LOT closer than originally thought. Coming into the start of the year it looked certain Trump would win but I’m not 100% sure, but still tilting towards a narrow win for him, probably under 300 electoral votes.
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He was only on 304 last time. It would only take Biden taking Florida and a middle sized state to snatch it.
 
Ag said:
He was only on 304 last time. It would only take Biden taking Florida and a middle sized state to snatch it.
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Oh really! I presumed he had 330-something, although looking back it was Obama who won 332 in 2012.
 
I'm obsessed with a phone game called 270 where you have to win the election state by state. If you love US election stats it's quite FUN.
 
VoR said:
People keep forgetting Trump BARELY WON last time!
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That the main fanbase hasn't disappeared really is the big problem. The hope is that there must be a reatively small margin of waverers to turn it.
 
At the risk of jumping the gun, if Biden should win, the 2 month handover period between election and inauguration (during which Trump would remain President) could be VERY interesting...
 
Ag said:
I'm obsessed with a phone game called 270 where you have to win the election state by state. If you love US election stats it's quite FUN.
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Omg I got that the other day :D

Was looking for some INSIGHTFUL election news but got that instead :disco:
 
VoR said:
At the risk of jumping the gun, if Biden should win, the 2 month handover period between election and inauguration (during which Trump would remain President) could be VERY interesting...
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I’ve already said, if Biden just clinches it, Trump will most definitely be calling it all a fix and ordering recounts.
 
Win_the_game said:
I still think Trump will win. His support base are 100% behind him.

No amount of facts or reality will counter their blind faith in Trump or the Republicans.
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It's a support base - 40-44% of the vote - that ordinarily really isn't enough to win though.
 
For context, CNN recently did a piece that Biden's average 8-12 point polling lead puts him in one of the best polling positions of any challenger going into June since scientific polling started. He's doing much better at this stage than Hillary was, because his coalition's bigger than Hillary's was - he's got more support from older people and more support from white working class people. The two presidents who Trump most matches at this point for net approval are George H W Bush and Jimmy Carter, who both got completely creamed in their re-election campaigns.

Like, I can get people predicting that Trump might pull it back, but really the only argument for it being a sure thing is "well, the worst thing has happened before, therefore it's definitely going to happen again", rather than any evidence.
 
Between the UK and the USA we haven't had a major voting event that had a happy ending since 2012, so it is understandable that people are fatalistic. :D
 
I've changed my mind and think the election, if it were held tomorrow, would be a win for Biden. Not because of anything whatsoever his campaign has done - he's just got extraordinarily lucky that Trump has finally crossed "the line" with his handling of Coronavirus and, in particular, George Floyd's death and the black revolution.

I don't even want to think about what fresh evils Trump will conjure between now and election day, or how far he'll go to burn the whole thing down in the four months after if he loses.
 
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POP! said:
When are VPs typically announced? Any frontrunners?
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Biden's said he's going to announce next month I think? Kamala Harris, and a black Floridian congresswoman and ex-police chief Val Demings are looking like the frontrunners at this point.
 
Lucille said:
It’s game over for the republicans once Texas switches Dem surely?
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I’d have thought so. In fact, if you take out Texas the highest solid Republican state only has 11 electoral votes.
 
I still think it’s another 8 years for Texas to turn Democrat but they’re really fucked once that happens.

Although I’m willing to be shocked, look how quickly Yorkshire went Tory. :(
 
Lucille said:
Yeah my home town was Labour for 90 years before the last election. I very much feel it’ll be a one time BLIP though.
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I don’t know about here I’m afraid. I mean my fucking neighbour is a TORY COUNCILLOR :evil:
 
My new constituency will be Manchester Central :disco:

Bring on 2024 :weed:
 
Given the demographics that would have to shift to turn Texas blue - and the sheer unlikelihood of the Republicans winning the other states they'd need if people from those demographics aren't voting for them in Texas - it's more or less game over for the Republicans at a presidential level if Texas goes reliably blue without them really shifting the dial on something else.
 
I'd be surprised if it's a blow-out victory (I think Trump will win from Florida downwards on that chart further up the page) but I've changed my mind on the possibility of a Biden win because of a few things. To play Nate Bronze once again:

- White turnout in the South Carolina primary was up by 112%, which is insane. I know it's only one state but it does hint that the white suburban vote that won the House for the Democrats in 2018 will stick with them for the presidential election.

- The media are terrified of throwing the election to Trump again after what happened with Hillary in 2016 and will either straight-up refuse to cover Biden's scandals (his son's activities in Ukraine) or water them down into meaninglessness (his role in mass incarceration, Tara Reade). Unlike in 2016, the coverage of these scandals has also been fairly early on in the campaign.

- Trump is in a bind where he looks weak to Republican diehards for not sending in the troops to deal with the protests, but he also looks bad to about a third of the party for inflaming the situation and generally saying stupid shit.

- The enthusiasm polling for Biden as a candidate is remarkably low despite all this (34%), but from my own book of stats, I think the Democrats will get to cash in a one-time pass on "healing the nation from Trump" or some bullshit like that.
 
Mugatu said:
I think the Democrats will get to cash in a one-time pass on "healing the nation from Trump" or some bullshit like that.
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But that's the name of the game now. It's just as much about the opponent as it is about the candidate.

Also I think Trump has provided the Democrats with enough dirt for more than just a "one-time pass".
 
Trump's polling is terrible at the moment. I see he's dropped the 'Keep America Great' slogan :eyes:
 
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