As someone mentioned elsewhere, the guidelines all along have been designed if not subtly encouraged to be ignored. I'd add that even the Cummings fiasco was probably done on purpose at the blessing of Boris. To be seen to be doing something while also sending the subliminal message of "pleeeease just ignore us, and do what you want". Why? Probably wanting natural herd immunity as mentioned in the beginning, but a more cynical part of me thinks eugenics and happily letting it kill off the weak and some of the welfare burdens.
Going by other countries, this next step of opening up hospitality is what will trigger wave 2 (because indoors and social by nature). It probably won't overwhelm the NHS, as they're better prepared now, which is all that the Tory government is bothered about. So we might not see another lockdown, but would be wise to keep vulnerable people protected by our own initiative.