2020 USA Presidential Elections

Four more years?

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Jark said:
3 lots of good news there, but a measly 3 point polling lead in Florida probably won't bring it close to actually swinging blue (and the Florida winner has taken the electoral college in the last 6 elections)
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......why, exactly? Polling errors aren't predestined to always be in Trump's favour!
 
Penelope said:
......why, exactly? Polling errors aren't predestined to always be in Trump's favour!
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This election we're likely to see significantly greater polling errors in Trump's favour (last time's phenomenon plus a few points) because he has become so toxic that "shy Republicanism" is on the rise. I guarantee you that Biden's victories in almost every state other than California and New York will be smaller than polls indicate for this precise reason.
 
The shy Republican theory has been debunked time and time again by the likes of 538. Most Trump supporters aren't exactly shy about it, let alone when it comes to telling an anonymous pollster online or over the phone (in any case - surely someone would be more likely to be a shy Trump supporter in California or New York?)
 
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Interestingly, early voting figures are being absolutely smashed in southern states like Texas, Georgia and Florida - which is considered good news for the Democrats. But they're comparably lagging in the crucial rust belt states of Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

It could be a VERY weird night.
 
I suspect a lot of old presumption about shy Republicans, early voting Democrats and the traditions around Ohio and Florida will fly out the window this week.

Also the voting numbers are insane. Several states are already higher than 2016. Whoever wins its gonna be with some big numbers, perhaps the biggest and smartest numbers ever.
 
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Penelope said:
The shy Republican theory has been debunked time and time again by the likes of 538. Most Trump supporters aren't exactly shy about it, let alone when it comes to telling an anonymous pollster online or over the phone (in any case - surely someone would be more likely to be a shy Trump supporter in California or New York?)
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You're very confident. Let's see. I have quite a strong feeling there's going to be a LOT of "HOW could this happen? The polls were all in our favour!" despair and hand-wringing come Wednesday morning.
 
Pennsylvania is indeed looking like the state to watch right now. A flip there seems far likelier than Florida, and Texas is certainly out of contention at this point.

25% of both Dem AND Republican voters who have voted so far did not vote in 2016, so the massively increased turnout is not predominantly benefiting Democrats.
 
VoR said:
I think it's more likely to stay Red than to flip, but what would bring you to that conclusion?
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538 has Trump consistently ahead in Texas, with a current average polling lead of 1.1%. Even polls in Joe's favour show leads of 2/3 points at best. There have been some last minute campaign efforts planned in Texas, but in general they haven't paid it much attention outside of TV ads which suggests internal polling is not super strong either. And if there is any kind of shy Republican phenomenon - exactly inverse to what @Penelope said, I think it will be much stronger this time around than last because anyone who is just "persuadable" rather than being a hardcore MAGA nut will be ashamed to admit where their vote went - Biden will be winning states with a 5/6+ points polling lead, not 1/2 points at best.

And speaking of campaigning in Texas, a planned event yesterday was called off because Trump supporters surrounded the Biden-Harris campaign bus on the highway



law enforcement intervened in the end but they called off the event anyway.
 
Jark said:
538 has Trump consistently ahead in Texas, with a current average polling lead of 1.1%. Even polls in Joe's favour show leads of 2/3 points at best. There have been some last minute campaign efforts planned in Texas, but in general they haven't paid it much attention outside of TV ads which suggests internal polling is not super strong either.

And speaking of campaigning in Texas, a planned event yesterday was called off because Trump supporters surrounded the Biden-Harris campaign bus on the highway



law enforcement intervened in the end but they called off the event anyway.
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I really am more worried about the events POST election
 
Soldi said:
Interestingly it looks like North Carolina is pretty much in Biden’s camp now.
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It's still a toss-up but it is looking likelier for Biden than Trump and even typically Rep-favouring pollsters like Rasmussen can only muster a +1pt polling lead for Trump. Biden's 538 average there is +2.6pts, but in the last week more like +4/5pts. It's def ONE TO WATCH.
 
Dark Carnival said:
When WAS the last time it ACTUALLY SWUNG?!
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It’s about how close it is though. The fact the polls have it swinging between Biden and Trump all summer are the reason why. Add into the fact that there’s pretty much no way he’ll win it by the numbers he won last time and there’s every chance it could go blue and there you have a swing state!
 
What does Biden need to win in the somewhat likely event he loses Texas, Florida, and now perhaps Iowa?
 
Soldi said:
It’s about how close it is though. The fact the polls have it swinging between Biden and Trump all summer are the reason why. Add into the fact that there’s pretty much no way he’ll win it by the numbers he won last time and there’s every chance it could go blue and there you have a swing state!
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Just because it's not a Republican landslide each time doesn't make it an actual swing state. It's frankly all just very wishful thinking. Even states like Louisiana and Missouri have gone bleu more recently. There may be a trend of it shifting slightly to the the left due to demographic changes. I say give it a decade or two, but for now it remains a safe Republican state.
 
Can Biden actually lose if he wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and, let's say, North Carolina? *runs to 538*
 
Jark said:
Can Biden actually lose if he wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and, let's say, North Carolina? *runs to 538*
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I think holding these three means he can lose Ohio, Georgia, Arizona and even Florida and still win.
 
I somehow can't believe the election is here. In the midst of a new lockdown and this resurgence of terrorism in France, I just don't have the capacity for it all somehow. Trump well and truly wore me out over the last 5+ years.
 
I think Biden just needs Michigan, Winconsin and Pennsylvania to win, all states he's nicely ahead in.
 
I can't believe it's finally here either - it feels like just yesterday the PRIMARIES were happening while also feeling like several lifetimes ago - but in addition to being terrified I'm also REALLY EXCITED.

like the good sis @Zu-Klara, I just have SO MANY FEELINGS
 
I’ll be getting plenty of alcohol in and may indulge in a TAKEAWAY to help my local businesses come Tuesday :)
 
It hasn't been the normal sensational campaign, with all the normal glitz and massive campaign rallies. It certainly doesn't feel like we're on the eve of a US election.
 
I've been burned before (every election), but it FEELS like Biden is going to win here in Georgia. Even people I know who are generally apathetic towards politics have been talking about this and it seems to be in Biden's favor. I think Georgia/North Carolina/Florida are going to go for him.
 
RJN said:
Also, I waited in line for almost 2 hours to vote, and the mood in the line was almost happy. It has never been like that in any other election I've voted in.
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2 hours? Good grief, the longest it has ever taken me to vote is about 2 minutes!
 
I can't help but think about how there were articles at the time about Clinton focussing on where the Dems could make inroads in future years, they were that confident of victory. And then the local results in places she should have won were surprising - she not only didn't make those inroads, but she also didn't pay enough attention to her core base. Has Biden been focussing on his core vote base or has he adopted a similar strategy? I guess it's a bit less relevant this time round due to Covid restrictions
 
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