The War in Ukraine

[ZenGiraffe]

Yes, I think that ship has already sailed! I keep reading how SWIFT will be kept in the back pocket in case the situation ‘worsens’ - worsens how, exactly?

Presumably the point they take political control of Ukraine, if it happens?

 

[Kratz]

Presumably the point they take political control of Ukraine, if it happens?

Probably, which seems incredibly reactive (like taking a paracetamol when your head is on fire). The damage has already been done.

 

[Indie]

I see Russia have banned all UK airlines over their airspace. Not that I would have expected many people to be hot-footing it to Russia, but that's a bit of a bitch if you're travelling to Japan.

 

[Soldi]

They’ve reached Northern Kyiv.

 

[ButterTart]

I see Russia have banned all UK airlines over their airspace. Not that I would have expected many people to be hot-footing it to Russia, but that's a bit of a bitch if you're travelling to Japan.

One of my subordinates is currently in Russia. He’d best not be trapped there because I can’t cover him when I’ve got so much on.

 

[Diddy]

I see Russia have banned all UK airlines over their airspace. Not that I would have expected many people to be hot-footing it to Russia, but that's a bit of a bitch if you're travelling to Japan.

Fuck, I hadn’t even thought about that

 

[Loufoque]

thanks for sharing. do you and others really think Putin has gone insane?

All the Russians I spoke to yesterday think he has gone mad. One said to me "It used to seem that he made strategic gambles. Now it seems that he has gone completely off the rails, and is totally detached from reality." His words and his demeanour certainly seem unhinged.

 

[octophone]

They’ve reached Northern Kyiv.

Jesus.

This is horrifying.

 

[Rachey]

All the Russians I spoke to yesterday think he has gone mad. One said to me "It used to seem that he made strategic gambles. Now it seems that he has gone completely off the rails, and is totally detached from reality." His words and his demeanour certainly seem unhinged.

That makes this whole thing even more terrifying. A mad man doesn't care about anything

I see locals in Kyiv have been advised to make petrol bombs

 

[win_the_game]

Russian independent news agency Interfax reports Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov as saying “no one is planning to occupy Ukraine”.

He added that Russia still does not recognise the current government in Ukraine as democratic and that president Zelenskiy is lying when he says he is ready to discuss the neutral status of Ukraine.

Lavrov said the Russian government wants the Ukrainian people to be independent and that it would ensure the demilitarisation of the country.

Separately Reuters reports that Lavrov said Russia is ready for talks once Ukraine’s army stops fighting, and that no one plans to attack the Ukrainian people. “We do not want Neo-Nazis to rule Ukraine,” he said.

The Russian government are utterly deluded and detached from reality. I know the statement is probably designed for a domestic audience but it’s laughable that they present themselves as the upholders of democracy.

Germany and Italy are an embarrassment with their opposition to Russia’s removal from SWIFT. Russia won’t back down in the face of incremental sanctions.

 

[auretz]

thanks for sharing. do you and others really think Putin has gone insane?

Macron (the western leader who has had the most contact with Putin over the past few years) has been reported saying that Putin has changed a lot in himself between his most recent and past visits, and not for the better. Putin has been isolating himself because of covid, that combined with old age is not good. I've seen people theorising he might be going senile or have some other illness. In any case, he isn't a rational actor.

 

[ZZ]

I was listening to this podcast yesterday which gives a lot of insight about Putin's operations in general and was quite shocked by it all. If you have time, it's well worth a listen:

Website | The Big Steal podcast

The Big Steal podcast is a nine-part podcast available now on all main platforms. Listen to the trailer and full episodes and subscribe on your favorite podcast app so you don't miss an episode!

www.thebigstealpodcast.com

 

[Mats]

Macron (the western leader who has had the most contact with Putin over the past few years) has been reported saying that Putin has changed a lot in himself between his most recent and past visits, and not for the better. Putin has been isolating himself because of covid, that combined with old age is not good. I've seen people theorising he might be going senile or have some other illness. In any case, he isn't a rational actor.

on a sidenote Erdogan seems to be headed down the same route. old, deluded, distrusting, dangerous

what a century this is shaping up to be

 

[Loufoque]

The best book to understand Putin and his ways of operating is Putin's People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took On the West. I read it in one weekend last summer. Long and complex, but perfectly explains how and why everything has unfolded as it has. And particularly drills into the extent to which dirty Russian money has infected London and its ruling elites.

 

[Ellie]

In my naive and non political mind, this Twitter thread here is what I think/hope will happen

 

[Madison]

I see Russia have banned all UK airlines over their airspace. Not that I would have expected many people to be hot-footing it to Russia, but that's a bit of a bitch if you're travelling to Japan.

I wonder if they can do some code-sharing/alliance type stuff e.g. get JAL to do the routes instead.

 

[VoR]

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan calls for restraint by both parties. All sides need to desist from taking positions that could intensify violence. We are closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine and express concerns about the real possibility of civilian casualties.

When the fucking TALIBAN are like 'ease off on the human rights abuses a bit mate!'

 

[big ron]

 

[VoR]

God this poor woman...

 

[Kratz]

May have been mentioned already but Russia now also stripped of its Grand Prix by the FIA (in addition to Champions League final moving to Paris).

 

[Kratz]

God this poor woman...

Good grief.

 

[dmlaw]

May have been mentioned already but Russia now also stripped of its Grand Prix by the FIA (in addition to Champions League final moving to Paris).

Nice to know that Formula 1 are OK with murdering journalists but this is where they draw the line.

 

[VoR]

Nice to know that Formula 1 are OK with murdering journalists but this is where they draw the line.

They only said 'it would be impossible under the current circumstances' - no actual criticism of Putin's actions.

 

[Kratz]

Sure, yet still more than the EBU have done

 

[Apoca]

May have been mentioned already but Russia now also stripped of its Grand Prix by the FIA (in addition to Champions League final moving to Paris).

This war has such big ripples throughout sports. Some have acted within the past 24 hours. Others have really been dragging their feet. Of course, it depends on whether you have events scheduled in Russia for the next two months or not.

Similarly interesting/sad so see how many sports have failed to say anything at all. For some, I just assume they have no idea how to deal with war as a sports federation in a social media / digital-first age - but the result is they come across as spineless.

 

[ButterTart]

Macron (the western leader who has had the most contact with Putin over the past few years) has been reported saying that Putin has changed a lot in himself between his most recent and past visits, and not for the better. Putin has been isolating himself because of covid, that combined with old age is not good. I've seen people theorising he might be going senile or have some other illness. In any case, he isn't a rational actor.

This makes me wonder whether this has come about through forces taking advantage of Putin's infirmity, or whether this really is all his doing. It seems bizarre for a country to start a costly ground war and risk being destroyed by sanctions at the behest of a man they know is no longer of sound mind.

 

[Soldi]

Bar them from next months World Cup play-offs next please, UEFA.

 

[Apoca]

Bar them from next months World Cup play-offs next please, UEFA.

This one is complex - across all sports. Banning athletes from a nation (or a whole nation) for its doping offenses is pretty clear cut. Banning individual athletes because their country started a war is more complicated - especially cause there are plenty of athletes who are speaking up against this and they are being dragged into this. But then again, they do compete for a country - plus sports and athletes are politicised and instrumentalised by the Kreml at every opportunity, which makes it much more difficult to separate the two when it comes to Russia.

Of course, with Ukraine unlikely to send athletes to certain sports for the foreseeable future, it's almost untenable to allow Russian athletes to compete when their Ukrainian compatriots might be drafted to defend their country. It's absurd. But it's still not as clear-cut a decision as it looks at first glance.

The best thing would be for the Russian athletes themselves to realise that this is not the time to compete internationally - but they have an apparatus in the back of their necks almost certainly forcing them to.

 

[Iguana]

Would they be allowed to compete as independents?

 

[Cerro de Casa]

The sooner Russia is turned into a Pariah Scary state the better.

USA, UK & EU need to get their act together. Stat.

 

[Apoca]

Can they not be allowed to compete as independents?

This was basically their "punishment" in Pyeonchang 2018 when they competed as "Olympic Athletes of Russia" and as per WADA they are still not allowed to compete at big events (Olympics and World Championships) for Russia until the end of this year, so they are competing as "Russian Olympic Committee" or "Russian [Sports] Union/Federation". This doesn't apply to regular "tour level" events though. But honestly, it's a bit of a sham and a watered-down sentence.

This is of course something that Sports Federations could push for or go even further removing any notion of Russia - but you can bet your tushy that they would take this to CAS right away and turn it into a long, drawn-out legal affair, ruling out the immediate solution that people are currently looking for.

 

[funky]

It is unfortunate for Russian athletes etc to lose their opportunity to compete but that pales in signifance compared to the hardship that regular Russian people face should the Russian economy continue to crash in the face of international isolation. I don’t really have much time for whether or not Russia can be in a World Cup or olympics or Eurovision or whatever. That isn’t life or death.

Russia need to be isolated from everything - it’s not ideal but the alternative is we all go to war. The world needs to set a precedent, they need to show other rogue countries that this won’t be tolerated, and they need to encourage regime change in Russia by illustrating the damage that can happen when you invade a country without just cause. It’s not going to happen overnight and it’s awful, but innocent Ukrainians being bombed is worse. We’re past the point of a pain free solution.

 

[funky]

Also, absurd as it is, the PR impact of Russia not competing on the world stage can be more powerful to many people and more explicit in terms of media coverage than trying to explain the military strategy of Russia occupying various airports and bases and cities. People hear what they want to hear. Russia being banned from the World Cup will have more water cooler chatter and is easier to understand than coverage of Ukrainian people sheltering in metro stations. Sad but true.

 

[VoR]

 

[Indie]

I'd like to think "Russian warship, go fuck yourself" becomes the defining quote of the war. It's exactly what i'd say.

 

[funky]

Go fuck yourself written on the Ukrainian flag appears to already be overtaking social media

 

[Apoca]

It is unfortunate for Russian athletes etc to lose their opportunity to compete but that pales in signifance compared to the hardship that regular Russian people face should the Russian economy continue to crash in the face of international isolation. I don’t really have much time for whether or not Russia can be in a World Cup or olympics or Eurovision or whatever. That isn’t life or death.

Russia need to be isolated from everything - it’s not ideal but the alternative is we all go to war. The world needs to set a precedent, they need to show other rogue countries that this won’t be tolerated, and they need to encourage regime change in Russia by illustrating the damage that can happen when you invade a country without just cause. It’s not going to happen overnight and it’s awful, but innocent Ukrainians being bombed is worse. We’re past the point of a pain free solution.

Trust me, I have a very clear opinion on which way the pendulum should swing on this.

All I'm saying is - not gonna happen overnight. Stripping a country of big competitions is a fairly quick decision. Stripping them of their right to compete is more complicated.

 

[funky]

Trust me, I have a very clear opinion on which way the pendulum should swing on this.

All I'm saying is - not gonna happen overnight. Stripping a country of big competitions is a fairly quick decision. Stripping them of their right to compete is more complicated.

Competing as independents should absolutely be allowed. But probably not the half arsed way the Olympics do it.

 

[Apoca]

P.s. it is all well and good talking about Russia in this - but Belarus needs to be mentioned in the same breath right now.

 

[VoR]

I’m sure the recent anti-government uprisings in Belarus and Kazakhstan are a large reason why Putin is doing this.

He’s losing grip and he knows it.