The USA: The Biden Years

Nevada just feels like one of those states where there's so much churn, and that's pretty evenly matched anyway at the best of times, that in any election where turnout's down a bit on usual and there's a national R+ environment, it goes to them.
 
RJN said:
I’m so worried about fucking Herschel Walker being senator
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The polls favour Warnock by a reassuring margin at the moment.

Mark Kelly has a good chance at holding Arizona too, in which case all it takes is for John Fetterman to beat Dr Oz (:DAF:) which looks likely. JD Vance is also a very weak candidate, so him losing would be a nice bonus.
 
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Penelope said:
Nevada just feels like one of those states where there's so much churn, and that's pretty evenly matched anyway at the best of times, that in any election where turnout's down a bit on usual and there's a national R+ environment, it goes to them.
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That’s all true but the democrats just always come out ahead. Maybe I’m idealistic about it, but I just feel like Nevada won’t fuck things up. I feel the same about new hampshire
 
Ohio feels like a bridge too far, alas. God I'd love that shiteating prick to not get elected though. Oh, so the takeaway from your grandmother in Appalachia not having teeth is that government is bad and taxes are evil? :manson:
 
JD Vance is weak but I just feel like he’s going to win. I’m going to Ohio in October, so maybe I’ll do some last minute canvassing while I’m there
 
I think the abortion thing should give the Dems an edge in the swing seats. That Kansas result was huge!
 
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Penelope said:
Ohio feels like a bridge too far, alas. God I'd love that shiteating prick to not get elected though. Oh, so the takeaway from your grandmother in Appalachia not having teeth is that government is bad and taxes are evil? :manson:
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Vance could use this quote as an example of the liberal elite :D
 
It’s not going to happen, but more states should have referendums on abortion. I bet it would go the correct way in almost every state and would make the Republicans look extreme
 
Stacey Abrams and Beto O’Rourke obviously the Governor races to watch.

I feel like if O’Rourke can’t win in Texas after Uvalde *and* with abortion rights on the line…
 
RJN said:
It’s not going to happen, but more states should have referendums on abortion. I bet it would go the correct way in almost every state and would make the Republicans look extreme
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On the plus side, the lack thereof makes the Governor races essentially abortion referendums by proxy.
 
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I don’t see it for Abrams or O’rourke unfortunately
 
The Georgia polling is so weird. Kemp is clearly stronger than Walker (and it feels what way in person too) but I can’t see that many people actually splitting their votes
 
Yes, I find it quite baffling, especially considering Kemp is hated by Trump! Is it a local thing?
 
The problem is the national landscape is so obviously going to be R+ rather than D+ like in 2018 (and 2020) that Abrams and O'Rourke just don't feel like they're going to be able to make it add up. Much as the governors races are notionally a bit independent from the national polling, they obviously are influenced enough by it to some extent that it's likely to make the difference.
 
VoR said:
Yes, I find it quite baffling, especially considering Kemp is hated by Trump! Is it a local thing?
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Presumably that's enough to keep some of the voters that swung from R to D in 2020 and made the difference in Georgia.
 
VoR said:
Yes, I find it quite baffling, especially considering Kemp is hated by Trump! Is it a local thing?
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I think its traditional Republican voters in the Atlanta suburbs who hate Trump, see Walker as an idiot, but find Kemp slightly more appealing. I think a good amount of my friends parents will vote for Kemp and Warnock
 
Biden came at the MAGA loons. Trump replied by saying he had LATE STAGE DEMENTIA.
 
The Republicans lost a House Special Election in ALASKA this week, which I imagine is making them very nervous indeed. :D Alaska only has one house seat and beforehand it had been solidly Republican for over 50 years.

www.theguardian.com

Sarah Palin loses Alaska special election to Democrat Mary Peltola

Peltola’s victory in the state’s first ranked choice voting election makes her the first Alaska Native to serve in the House
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
The mid terms are going to be tight. Democrats are doing far better than they should be, mostly due to the Roe vs Wade DISASTER. Although MAGA loons seem to be energised by the FBI raid.
 
For all the gaffes and concerns about his age, he's really proven to be a remarkably savvy and successful President so far. I feel a lot better about him getting a second term than I did six months ago.
 
Weed should just be legalized but this is a good step
 
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I’m feeling pretty good about the Democrats chances in the midterms. Especially since republicans have nominated some truly bizarre people
 
They're currently favoured to win the Senate, but still expected to lose the House. The House polls have tightened recently though.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2022 Senate Election Forecast

Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 Senate elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

2022 House Forecast

Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 House elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
 
"Hi Linda regarding your campaign video I'm afraid we can't find anything to rhyme with transphobic"

"I DON'T CARE STICK IT IN AT THE END"
 
VoR said:
For all the gaffes and concerns about his age, he's really proven to be a remarkably savvy and successful President so far. I feel a lot better about him getting a second term than I did six months ago.
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Maybe I'll feel differently later but I'm really liking Biden recently. I voted for him, but wasn't that excited about it. But he's been pretty good
 
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