Predict how many seats the Labour Party will win at the next election

[ZenGiraffe]

With the election likely to happen by this time next year (and at the absolute latest, in 13 months), and opinion polls showing a Labour majority highly likely, how many seats do you think they will get?

Assuming the election is under the new boundaries (which unless a snap election is called tomorrow, I think is a given) there are:

650 Seats UK wide

543 in England
57 in Scotland
32 in Wales
18 in Northern Ireland

326 seats needed for an absolute majority.

So let's all embarrass ourselves before the next election with wildly incorrect predictions. Please also give your reasons why in the thread.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

Starmer is not that impressive a politician. He will struggle in debates, and the Tories and especially Lib Dems will make some gains between now and the election. The SNP won't lose quite so many seats either, so I think the Labour majority (and it will be a majority) will be much narrower than is currently predicted.

 

[Kratz]

I will say 376-400 with expectations at the upper end of that but above 400 would not surprise me (even realising a doubling of their seats).

It's important to remember just how low a base they will start from - I am going to factor in a degree of Tory swing-back but also the potential for Reform to cut into the Tory vote and allow Labour to come through the middle (which is why over 400 wouldn't surprise particularly if they perform as strongly as it seems they will in Scotland). I'm not expecting a great degree of change from where we are now, which suggests somewhere in the region of 400.

 

[Jark]

351-375, with similar reasoning to Zen. Starmer's deep lack of personal popularity and inability or refusal to lay out an actual vision for the country will ensure that any dreams of a fat labour majority remain just that. the Tories will also campaign dirty and that will probably work to some degree.

 

[VoR]

Based on two very safe Tory seats flipping Labour at the recent by-elections, I am choosing optimism.

 

[Madison]

I choose pessimism. No General Election has turned a majority government of one colour into a majority government of the other since 1970. Something will go wrong.

 

[octophone]

If they had a leader with some principle and character, 380+ would be possible. Such as it, they'll fall short.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

I choose pessimism.

So did I, hence why I predicted a Labour majority

 

[RJN]

I choose pessimism

The Labour Party's new slogan?

 

[GNL]

If they had a leader with some principle and character, 380+ would be possible. Such as it, they'll fall short.

I suspect for a barnstorming majority they need a leader with character but NO PRINCIPLES. Keir is halfway there, but he's no Tonty.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

Who will win the 2024 UK general election?

The definitive forecast model — How the country will vote according to Britain Predicts

sotn.newstatesman.com

Given the absolutely abysmal launch at the weirdest time, I think I need to revise my prediction up to the 376-400 mark.

 

[RJN]

Just imagine how well a political party that anyone actually liked would do

 

[Lucille]

Just imagine how well a political party that anyone actually liked would do

Let’s not bring up CORBYN again!

 

[funky]

Starmer is not that impressive a politician. He will struggle in debates, and the Tories and especially Lib Dems will make some gains between now and the election. The SNP won't lose quite so many seats either, so I think the Labour majority (and it will be a majority) will be much narrower than is currently predicted.

I agree with this but we also have to keep reminding ourselves that this current Tory government is possibly unprecedented in terms of being fractured, directionless, woefully understaffed and lacking in talent, and based on the last couple of days, completely capable of letting the wheels fall off in the run up. So there is still generous upside.

It’s possible that the Tories have some secret weapon ready to go. But I very much doubt it. They passed desperation stage months ago; if they had anything they would have used it all by know.

 

[octophone]

I've revised mine upwards but not by that much. I still think Starmer won't have a golden night; Abbott will keep her seat whether she is a Labour candidate or not and I can see Corbyn doing the same. I think some of Labour's more egregious figures may find the ground a bit sticky too - good left wing candidates could do some damage to some of the red Tories.

But the thing that is really developing in Labour's overall favour is the string of nobodies that the Conservatives are going to end up fielding as all their established figures shit their pants and run away rather than face the electorate.