UK General Election 2024 - July 4th (2 Viewers)

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How are you likely to vote?

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AGinAg (37)

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The campaign has essentially begun, even knowing it's likely 9/10 months away.

One place Labour will potentially lose a seat is Bristol Central

 
Electoral Calculus is massively simplistic and overrelies on uniform swing. It has Labour winning Hazel Grove.
 
Madíson said:
It seems a shame to begin a thread about what may be a Labour landslide with six posts about what quite possibly will be their only loss!
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I just didn't know where to put it and realised, the topic was probably worth starting.
 
Lucille said:
The Greens winning BRISTOL CENTRAL does seem QUITE POSSIBLE though.
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The redrawn boundaries certainly help it. Thangam Debbonaire's old Bristol West majority is halved by the new seat. It's now one of the seats in the country with the highest percentage of students registered, apparently.

12 of the 14 city councillors who cover the new constituency are Green, and it's the co-leader of the national party Carla Denyer who is standing. And she was largely responsible for Bristol City Council declaring a climate emergency several years ago - I believe the first city in the country (and possibly Europe) to do so. She's held in very high regard locally.
 
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Kratz said:
In related economic news, HAVE YOU TRIED NOT BEING POOR?

www.bbc.co.uk

Sir Howard Davies: Not that difficult to buy a home, says NatWest chair

Sir Howard Davies faced backlash online and has since rowed back on his comments on home ownership.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
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People have always had to save for a deposit?

Yes, we had to save less than two grand for a deposit when we bought our first house in 1995. Admittedly I was taking home a little under half of what I am now, but when I was only paying my parents about £150 a month, it could still be done easily enough in a year.
 
lolly said:
People have always had to save for a deposit?

Yes, we had to save less than two grand for a deposit when we bought our first house in 1995. Admittedly I was taking home a little under half of what I am now, but when I was only paying my parents about £150 a month, it could still be done easily enough in a year.
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Quite. We have gone from property prices of 3 x average income to over 6 x

He’s on another planet.
 
Mr L bought his house on his own at the age of 19 when we was working as a shop assistant! Admittedly he had an inheritance from a grandparent, but only enough to cover the deposit.
 
I would love for the Green party to better. I've previously voted for them but it seems a bit pointless as they never seem to stand a chance.

I obviously wouldn't vote conservatives. But I'm not a huge Kier Starmer fan either.

Lib dem maybe.
 
Rachey said:
I would love for the Green party to better. I've previously voted for them but it seems a bit pointless as they never seem to stand a chance.

I obviously wouldn't vote conservatives. But I'm not a huge Kier Starmer fan either.

Lib dem maybe.
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I assume you've got a Conservative MP now? Vote for whoever has the best chance of ousting them.
 
Rachey said:
I would love for the Green party to better. I've previously voted for them but it seems a bit pointless as they never seem to stand a chance.

I obviously wouldn't vote conservatives. But I'm not a huge Kier Starmer fan either.

Lib dem maybe.
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Actually, the Greens do a lot better than the Lib Dems on the Isle of Wight. Labour are probably the best shot at getting rid of your Tory MP, but it’s not completely out of the question that the Greens could do it.
 
lolly said:
I assume you've got a Conservative MP now? Vote for whoever has the best chance of ousting them.
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Yep we have. And have had for as long as I can remember. I voted labour last time for the very reason of trying to get Conservatives out, although I wanted to vote green. But it did seem like a wasted vote.
 
dmlaw said:
Actually, the Greens do a lot better than the Lib Dems on the Isle of Wight. Labour are probably the best shot at getting rid of your Tory MP, but it’s not completely out of the question that the Greens could do it.
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I voted for Green several years in a row. They didn't do badly, but I think Labour do better. So more than likely I will vote Labour. Not that I think it'll do any good. Islanders moan about Bob Seeley, our Conservative MP, but still continue to vote for him.
 
Looks hard to judge on the Island especially as it’s splitting into two constituencies next time round.
Lib dems have most councillors after the conservatives and the seat was Lib dem in 1997 with them in second until 2010.
 
Is there anywhere I can read what each party would do to help small / new businesses? Because at the moment, it seems like they do fuck all.
 
Rachey said:
Is there anywhere I can read what each party would do to help small / new businesses? Because at the moment, it seems like they do fuck all.
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The minute the cunts give us an election date we’ll start to see some details from the parties. Everyone is cagey on details at the moment
 
From what I've read so far, Labour appear to be one of the worst for small businesses :(

I genuinely think we will be closing within the next 3 years if things continue/get much worse.
 
Rachey said:
From what I've read so far, Labour appear to be one of the worst for small businesses :(

I genuinely think we will be closing within the next 3 years if things continue/get much worse.
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Starmer and Reeves are trying to appeal to business a lot more though so I assume what you are reading is more 2019… I think you’ll just need to keep an open mind for the minute and judge closer to the time.
 
Alex said:
Starmer and Reeves are trying to appeal to business a lot more though so I assume what you are reading is more 2019… I think you’ll just need to keep an open mind for the minute and judge closer to the time.
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Yeah I think it may be 2019. I really hope you're right. I remember reading a while ago they wanted minimum wage to increase to £15 an hour tho. That is definitely us closing because we can't increase our prices enough to cover the increase.
 
How DARE people have enough money to have a basic lifestyle!
 
Soldi said:
How DARE people have enough money to have a basic lifestyle!
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I'm not saying that. I'm saying that it really affects small businesses. And it's not just us. We talk to a lot of small businesses on the island and they're all at risk of closing.

People having more money doesn't mean they will spend it on fudge, or meals out, so it doesn't help us at all.
 
ZenGiraffe said:
But people can't afford to live on minimum wage as it stands.
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Which I totally understand.

What I'm saying is, if minimum wage goes up, something needs to be done to support small businesses with the increase.

Our wage costs have increased by about £6000 a year since we opened. It'll be even more if it goes up to £15 an hour. That's not something we can handle. Because our turnover hasn't increased by that amount.
 
And this isn't me being greedy, this isn't from a business that's going well. We aren't. We are struggling. We still owe £30k to various people and are struggling to pay it back.

We literally just cover our costs, wages and expenses at the moment. We pay ourselves minimum wage because we can't afford to pay ourselves anymore. So as business owners we are on the same money as our staff
 
big ron said:
Then there is an argument you dont have a viable business 🤷‍♀️
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The frustrating thing is, before we opened it was very viable. The franchise has done incredibly well up until recently with large profits.

We were promised £50k a year profits.

And the first year we did very well, but we opened after lockdown when no one was going abroad. So we were lulled into a false sense of security.

Now it seems everyone is struggling. But we have to pay back what we owe people before we can consider closing.
 
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