Do you think Reform UK will win the next general election?

Yes or No

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RJN

RJN

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It seems crazy to me, but then again I thought the same about Trump winning
 
Define our terms.

Win the highest vote share? Yes
Win the most seats? Probably
Form the next government? No
 
ZenGiraffe said:
Define our terms.

Win the highest vote share? Yes
Win the most seats? Probably
Form the next government? No
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form the next government (even if it’s in a coalition). Basically will the PM be from them
 
Dark Carnival said:
Why wouldn’t they with the most seats?
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FIrst Past the Post. If they get 40% nationally, and that's spread evenly in every seat, then tactical voting could get a party to 41% on a seat by seat basis, despite those parties getting less than 41% nationally.

E.g. what happened in France when parties stood down for each other to unite against LePen
 
there are so many variables obviously but I don't think it will happen for several reasons

- a good 3.5 years til the next election gears up is loads of time for the political landscape to shift
- we will have new problems by then (not least AI) that can't all be pinned on immigrants by Farage
- that's also enough time for the economy to grow (hardly guaranteed) which would also change the nature of the debate
- a real leftist opposition may emerge and offer people hope that's not based on far right extremism - be it Polanski's greens, Your Party (lol!), or a new contender, an alliance or some combination thereof
- Reform exists as a vehicle for Farage but has very little structure or experience of campaigning, and as we've seen many local Reform councils are wildly incompetent and could fuck things up big time in areas where Reform would hope to win seats long before the election
- Farage himself is a huge liability and has the ability to sabotage the party's momentum himself
 
RJN said:
do you think this is likely? That feels like a different political world from today
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Formally? No. But if the polls look like they do today, then Labour and Lib Dems will likely have a defacto arrangement where they don't put any resources into seats where the other is the clear challenger. Voters will do it of their own accord as well.
 
At this point YES.

However we do have 3.5 years, and not a minute less. I note there was SOME hopeful language about the economy the other day, so that could change things.

Aside from that, we're 18 months into an unpopular government, following many years of unpopular governments. There is perhaps an inevitable urge to look elsewhere and protest vote in opinion polls. Voters do have a bad habit of defaulting to their traditional voting habits. It may even be the Tories that scupper Farage.

All that said Farage is extremely established and among enough people extremely popular. The left is more split than actual EVER.

Sadly all signs point to yes they'll win. I'm fearful, genuinely, but somewhat resigned.
 
ZenGiraffe said:
Formally? No. But if the polls look like they do today, then Labour and Lib Dems will likely have a defacto arrangement where they don't put any resources into seats where the other is the clear challenger. Voters will do it of their own accord as well.
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I would hope so
 
It's possible they'd struggle with a Tory coalition, they probably won't win again quickly or won't last the full term. Farage is well known to be a power hungry monster, and they're ultimately unprofessional and inefficient.
 
ZenGiraffe said:
Formally? No. But if the polls look like they do today, then Labour and Lib Dems will likely have a defacto arrangement where they don't put any resources into seats where the other is the clear challenger. Voters will do it of their own accord as well.
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There’s going to be some crazy seats that will be a 3 or 4 or god even 5 horse race. I don’t see the Lib Dem’s playing nice, they’ll by vying to be the opposition.
 
My seat is currently set to go Reform. If that happens, we'll have had Lib Dem, Tory, Labour and Reform MPs over a 15 year period, which is mad.
 
By the time the election comes round all parties will be firing on all cylinders. None of the other parties want Reform to win, so informal standing aside again is very likely. The biggest risk is a formal or informal Reform-Tory coalition. But Farage as popular as he is, repulses many more even among Tories.
 
Visit Cardiff said:
My seat is currently set to go Reform. If that happens, we'll have had Lib Dem, Tory, Labour and Reform MPs over a 15 year period, which is mad.
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Looking at the chart on the Wikipedia page for your constituency, it looks like green can win in 30 years if it’s follows the path it’s on :disco:
 
RJN said:
Looking at the chart on the Wikipedia page for your constituency, it looks like green can win in 30 years if it’s follows the path it’s on :disco:
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90 year old Seb Flyte will finally fulfill his dream.
 
ZenGiraffe said:
FIrst Past the Post. If they get 40% nationally, and that's spread evenly in every seat, then tactical voting could get a party to 41% on a seat by seat basis, despite those parties getting less than 41% nationally.

E.g. what happened in France when parties stood down for each other to unite against LePen
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Is Reform still an absolute no-go for a majority of voters? Because in France, it’s getting dangerously close to that no longer being the case with Le Pen. Macron and his puppets have done everything they can to alienate and demonise the left.
 
Dark Carnival said:
Is Reform still an absolute no-go for a majority of voters? Because in France, it’s getting dangerously close to that no longer being the case with Le Pen. Macron and his puppets have done everything they can to alienate and demonise the left.
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Reform seem to have peaked at about 32% in the polls. Which I believe is what the current Labour government got and have a huge majority.

FPTP is so flawed but does grant relative stability.
 
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What about voters who are BEING GERI HALLIWELL?
 
why do so many green voters think they’re going to hell?
 
Just a few months ago I was dismissive of the prospect of Labour replacing Starmer before the next election. Now it looks like an inevitability.

Who they replace him with is the big question though. It’s not exactly a stacked bench.
 
VoR said:
Just a few months ago I was dismissive of the prospect of Labour replacing Starmer. Now it looks like an inevitability.

Who they replace him with is the big question though. It’s not exactly a stacked bench.
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What makes you think it's inevitable? Sure he's shit, but the Labour Party don't fuck with their leaders like the Tories do.
 
They kind of have to replace Keir before the election unless they want all of 9 seats.
 
He'll fire Reeves in May 2026 after disastrous elections in Wales, Scotland, and a variety of councils. If he hasn't regained ground by Labour Conference in September, then the knives will be properly out.
 
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VoR said:
Who in their right mind would want Reeves’ job though?
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Milliband maybe? He's never going to be leader again so it's the best job he'd ever get in government now, he has the experience from being in treasury under Gordon Brown's premiership and he's generally liked by everyone in the party who doesn't have their tongue up Morgan M Sweeney's arsehole
 
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