Who will win the Gorton and Denton by-election?

Who Will Win?

  • Sir Oink A-Lot (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)

    Votes: 3 11.1%

  • Nick Buckley (Advance UK)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Charlotte Cadden (Conservative Party)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Dan Clarke (Libertarian Party)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Matt Goodwin (Reform UK)

    Votes: 9 33.3%

  • Sebastian Moore (Social Democratic Party)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Joseph O'Meachair (Rejoin EU Party)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Jackie Pearcey (Liberal Democrats)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Hannah Spencer (Green Party)

    Votes: 14 51.9%

  • Angeliki Stogia (Labour Party)

    Votes: 1 3.7%

  • Hugo Wils (Communist League)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    27
  • Poll closed .
Polls in real life are CLOSED, and the poll on this thread closes in about an hour, LAST CALL FOR EMBARRASING YOURSELF WITH A PREDICTION THAT WILL AGE POORLY
 
I realise I'm sticking my head above the parapet here but I really don't appreciate the recent attempts at sectarianism by the Greens which makes me lose faith in them, frankly:

 
I also realise that's a Conservative lord I've quoted but I had hoped the Greens would be immune to these dirty tactics.
 
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Reform seem to be flapping, claiming fraud etc, and Labour are absolutely silent. Which currently suggests the bookies are right.

 
Apparently Labour are complaining about family voting too.

What does that even mean?
 
i'm definitely misunderstanding, because surely there isn't a rule that Gorton constiuents musn't discuss votes in the Big Brother House

(Edit - now makes more sense post Butter Tart)
 
Eddie said:
I realise that's a Conservative lord I've quoted but I had hoped the Greens would be immune to these dirty tactics.
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maybe I'm a dumb bitch but what is that very long tweet accusing the Greens of?
 
ZenGiraffe said:
I think it is the entire polling place that is covered?
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I'm not sure, to be honest. When I used to be a poll clerk people would openly talk to the people they were with about who they were voting for and we were never told to stop them, it was only sharing a booth that was prohibited.

I might have just been shit at the job, mind.
 
I'm not sure who Democracy Volunteers are. They could be legit or a MAGA (or similar) plant.

Polling station staff have not reported any problems.
 
Jark said:
maybe I'm a dumb bitch but what is that very long tweet accusing the Greens of?
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Encouraging British Muslims to vote for them by claiming that Kier Starmer/Labour are too close with Narendra Modi.
 
I feel like this family voting thing has long been planned. Ready to drop whatever the result. If Reform win, it's quietly forgotten. If they lose they'll say I told you so.
 
dmlaw said:
Encouraging British Muslims to vote for them by claiming that Kier Starmer/Labour are too close with Narendra Modi.
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More specifically British Pakistanis which is just a really weird approach.
 
ZenGiraffe said:
Is that so terrible, when Labour would have used the exact same tactiv on Reform/Farage and Trump?
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The argument is that Brits of South Asian origin don’t really care where each other’s parents or grandparents came from, and that encouraging them to care is a very bad thing, particularly given the hugely hostile relationship between India and Pakistan. Anything which might conceivably lead to sectarian violence between brown people in British cities would be a gift to Reform and the rest of the far right.
 
Eddie said:
Not if you think stoking tensions between British south Asian Muslims and Hindus isn't a bad thing.
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dmlaw said:
The argument is that Brits of South Asian origin don’t really care where each other’s parents or grandparents came from, and that encouraging them to care is a very bad thing, particularly given the hugely hostile relationship between India and Pakistan. Anything which might conceivably lead to sectarian violence between brown people in British cities would be a gift to Reform and the rest of the far right.
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That's fair enough, it isn't an area of politics I'm hugely familiar enough with, and yeah, disappointing behaviour.
 
but where is the evidence of the Greens actually doing that? they're mentioned once in that massive tweet and it's very vague. not to say they haven't, I'm just curious what the source is.
 
Jark said:
but where is the evidence of the Greens actually doing that? they're mentioned once in that massive tweet and it's very vague. not to say they haven't, I'm just curious what the source is.
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They sent out leaflets in urdu with pictures of Labour ministers with Modi and Netanyahu. The Greens say this is because they want to communicate with urdu speakers. Labour people say it's capitalising on sectarianism. It's probably a little from column a, a little from column b.

Reform say WE SPEAK INGERLISH IN THIS COUNTRY.
 
Analysis from the legendary diva Professor John Curtice:

Hitherto, the Greens had never won more than 10% of the vote in a parliamentary by-election, a figure they reached in the Somerton and Frome by-election in 2023.

Now Hannah Spencer has already claimed her place in the history books as the first ever Green candidate to win a parliamentary by-election.

Not only did Spencer win, but she won well, significantly outperforming the expectations of the polls.

Rather than winning narrowly, the party won 40.7%, enough to put them as much as 12 points ahead of second placed Reform. It represented as much as a 27.5 point increase on the party's share in 2024.

Labour, who had not hitherto lost an election in the area since 1931, fell into third place. The party's 25.4% of the vote represented a near halving of their 50.8% of the vote in 2024 and the 13th biggest ever fall in the party's support in a by-election.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives lost their deposit with just 1.9% of the vote, their worst ever by-election result.

Apart from the exceptional circumstances of the Rochdale by-election in 2024, when Labour disowned their candidate, leaving George Galloway to defeat a second-placed independent candidate, it is the first time that neither Labour nor the Conservatives have been one of the top two parties in a by-election contest.

With the two parties both running at 20% or less in the polls, the Conservative-Labour duopoly that has long dominated post-war British politics has never looked weaker.

The Conservatives are struggling to fend off the challenge from Reform, and now, at the other end of the spectrum, Labour's traditional position of the principal party of the left of British politics is evidently under threat from the Greens.

Doubtless the result will raise fresh questions in Labour MPs minds as to whether Keir Starmer should remain prime minister.
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The Tories' TERF losing her deposit :D :disco:
 
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