2020 USA Presidential Elections

Four more years?

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If things are going as expected, not only the next week but the rest of the year is going to be horrible.
 
Lucille said:
The economist has estimated that Biden currently has a 96% chance of winning the Electoral College.
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I mean, didn't the most cited models/pollsters at this point in 2016 offer like 71-85% chances of Hillary winning? I don't think it means anything. I'm sure there is a 96% (or better) chance of Biden winning the popular vote, but the insane way that the system works in America renders that meaningless.

Not to piss on anyone's chips but I don't see how they can offer 96% chance (almost certainty) of Biden winning the electoral college. Florida is very much a toss-up right now, probably leaning Republican, and although Biden can win without it (and Trump can't) if it does go to Trump I'd imagine most or all of the other swing states will too. I think we have to prepare for a much tighter race than we're currently anticipating.

I'm actually starting to get quite nervous about a Trump win, after weeks of cockiness. Four more years won't just be bad for America - the world CAN'T HANDLE THAT. We need the US back in the Paris Climate Accord immediately for one thing.
 
Lucille said:
The economist has estimated that Biden currently has a 96% chance of winning the Electoral College.
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I haven't read the article, but do you know if this was a model of a fair election? Because that could end up being the key to the next few weeks.
 
Still VERY worried of a Trump win. Putting all my hope in the mid west. If Biden can secure Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it should be a much much easier route to winning the election.
 
Biden can literally win Florida or Pennsylvania and lose pretty much all the other swing states and still win.

I was also watching some news feature the other day where it was mentioned that they could start counting early voting/postal ballots from Tuesday morning in Florida, which could mean we could potentially get a result there at 1am.
 
but winning Florida is not exactly a given hun! Pennsylvania seems to be leaning Dem at the minute, he should take Nevada and I reckon Georgia and NC could be in play too. I don't see him taking Florida personally (it will be close either way) and I think Texas is a couple of election cycles away from flipping blue.
 
Soldi said:
Biden can literally win Florida or Pennsylvania and lose pretty much all the other swing states and still win.

I was also watching some news feature the other day where it was mentioned that they could start counting early voting/postal ballots from Tuesday morning in Florida, which could mean we could potentially get a result there at 1am.
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Florida is one of them early counters.
 
the right-hand columns are interesting here, from NY Times

Screenshot-2020-10-29-at-12-11-21.png
 
But Pennsylvania don’t start processing votes until Election Day, and then don’t count them until they’ve been processed, so if it all rests on that then it might be a while before we know?
 
Jark said:
but winning Florida is not exactly a given hun! Pennsylvania seems to be leaning Dem at the minute, he should take Nevada and I reckon Georgia and NC could be in play too. I don't see him taking Florida personally (it will be close either way) and I think Texas is a couple of election cycles away from flipping blue.
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NC and Georgia are as much of a toss-up as Florida. At least in the mid west Trump only barely one last time. COME ON PENNSYLVANIA don’t let us down.
 
Still think he can win; this whole counting of postal votes issue is just another factor that has to be considered.
 
Jark said:
but winning Florida is not exactly a given hun! Pennsylvania seems to be leaning Dem at the minute, he should take Nevada and I reckon Georgia and NC could be in play too. I don't see him taking Florida personally (it will be close either way) and I think Texas is a couple of election cycles away from flipping blue.
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I’d say at this point it’s still a lot harder for Trump. He’s pretty much got all the swing states Hillary won locked down (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire). Then you look at Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania that he looks likely to take, all of which would easily tip him over 270.

Then factor in the nationwide polls, where he’s been leading as high as 10 points. There’s no way he’d win the nationwide vote by such a margin yet still lose the electoral college.
 
Jark said:
the right-hand columns are interesting here, from NY Times

Screenshot-2020-10-29-at-12-11-21.png
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I always look this Neb 2/Maine 2 thing up, but forget what it means after the elections. Why are these states always presented like this?
 
RaspberrySwirl said:
I always look this Neb 2/Maine 2 thing up, but forget what it means after the elections. Why are these states always presented like this?
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Maine and Nebraska award a number of votes to the state’s over all winner but also votes per district won.
 
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RaspberrySwirl said:
Right, thanks!

Imagine of more states did that
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I guess it's a state by state decision but their voting power (ie very little given the number of college points they have) gives them more flexibility to do what they want.

California is never going to risk giving about 20% of its 55 points to the Republicans, and imagine if Texas did it. The Republicans would never win another election (one can hope)
 
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funky said:
how do you import tweets to moopy?
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Copy and paste the link.

If you're on the app on your phone the option to 'copy link to tweet' is available under the 'share tweet' button on the right beneath a tweet.
 
that ad is everything! who knew Americans were capable of such (relative) comic subtlty?
 
is that an official campaign ad or third party? :D "phony Kamala" - the copywriter must've been working FOR FREE
 
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