2020 USA Presidential Elections

Four more years?

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For me the only way Trump will be in the White House next year is if he refuses to leave and instates his own militia. The momentum is against him. People are tired of him now.
 
I can't with the wave of TERRIFYING scares online right now. HOPEFULLY this will all be resolved come this time next week :eyes:

If it IS somehow Trump, thank fuck I'm not an American, and multiple states to declare independence IMMEDIATELY!
 
There has been speculation (fuelled by Steve Bannon among others) that if Trump loses this week he'd re-run in 2024.

I don't know how I'd feel about that. Very very nervous, obviously, but also he's very motivating to get left wing voters out and I'm already worried about the apathy of a second term Biden/Harris ticket.

Yes, I know I'm getting ahead of myself. :side-eye:
 
I'll also try to take the day to work from home on Wednesday because we all know how little work I'll be getting done anyway :eyes:
 
I reckon i'm DTF (Down To Findoutiftheworldisfuckedforanother4yearsinrealtime) :disco:
 
VoR said:
There has been speculation (fuelled by Steve Bannon among others) that if Trump loses this week he'd re-run in 2024.

I don't know how I'd feel about that. Very very nervous, obviously, but also he's very motivating to get left wing voters out and I'm already worried about the apathy of a second term Biden/Harris ticket.

Yes, I know I'm getting ahead of myself. :side-eye:
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I'd be amazed if he ran in 2024, so much of his schtick is about winning and everyone else being a loser... it would be far too easy for his opponent to turn that back on him, surely.
 
SURELY the very SECOND he's out the GOP will wash their hands of him and his awful legacy FOR GOOD. any talk of another run in '24 (won't he be dead by then?) is grim fantasy.
 
Oh there is no way he’d get the nomination again :D

make america great again again
 
Jark said:
SURELY the very SECOND he's out the GOP will wash their hands of him and his awful legacy FOR GOOD.
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Plenty of senators and congressmen are already trying to do this I think! It'll be very interesting to see whether they try and continue appealing to the MAGA crowd and the Q people etc going forward, or will they try and put the genie back in the bottle?
 
I mean, the MAGA crowd literally have no ideology beyond Trump. They're for him, not any particular set of values or politics. It's the cult of personality. How can someone like Pence try to appeal to that?
 
I'm (grimly) fascinated to see what the Republicans do in a post-Trump world. Sadly I can't see them course correcting. I fear they'll just be the populist party from now on. They'll never want to lose that rabid MAGA base. Most likely they'll find a younger, more palatable Trump stand-in. I've still got one eye on the hideous Tucker Carlson, and of course one of the Trump spawn wouldn't be as big of a stretch as we'd like to think... :zombie:
 
I can't see the Democrats winning in 2024. Four years of austerity, handwringing and performative wokeness, Kamala aka Hillary 2.0 as the presumable nominee, no pandemic to blame on the incumbent... maybe Trump should run again if he loses.

If this election is closer than expected, which I think it will be, then I can't imagine the Republicans disowning him. Despite his rhetoric, he's governed like a fairly standard Republican president. I imagine he'll remain a figure of some influence on the right, especially if he moves back into TV.
 
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Kamala is Hillary 2.0? In what way? Neither is a socialist/progressive but beyond that I don't see the comparison.

@Mugatu is a BEACON OF POSITIVITY tonight
 
oh my god, gays.



so much to LOVE about this. the flawless recreation of all the lewks! the logical breaking down of the reasons why the disenfranchised must vote! also I'm not sure WHEN Gaga started doing sign language every time she spoke on camera but I'm here for it!

going on 2m views in just a few hours.
 
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Mugatu said:
I can't see the Democrats winning in 2024. Four years of austerity, handwringing and performative wokeness, Kamala aka Hillary 2.0 as the presumable nominee, no pandemic to blame on the incumbent... maybe Trump should run again if he loses.

If this election is closer than expected, which I think it will be, then I can't imagine the Republicans disowning him. Despite his rhetoric, he's governed like a fairly standard Republican president. I imagine he'll remain a figure of some influence on the right, especially if he moves back into TV.
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Austerity? That doesn't really bear any resemblance to what the Democratic platform actually is. It's pretty rare for a party to do a complete 180 on its plans in that way without even trying to achieve them - so rare we can pretty much name all the cases when it's happened, that's how infamous they are.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/joe-biden-presidential-plans.html
 
FiveThirtyEights coverage of the polls is really thorough, I'm started watching their videos religiously.

I do think Biden will manage it when all is said and done. There's just too many seperate factors that would have to fall Trumps way for him to manage a second term, but again...who knows.
 
Polls to look out for this weekend: Florida and Pennsylvania by NYT/Siena, coming this weekend and Iowa by Selzer, coming today. These are the only high quality polls expected before Monday.

Four years ago, the final Selzer poll showed Mr. Trump jumping to a seven-point lead in Iowa over the final stretch — the clearest sign at the time of his late surge in the Midwest.

This year, Iowa is an interesting battleground state in its own right, reflecting Mr. Biden’s big gains among white voters. Recent polls show him ahead in the state, which ultimately voted for Mr. Trump by almost 10 points four years ago. If Selzer shows a close race or even a Biden lead, it’s very solid confirmation that the president’s at a big deficit across the Northern tier. On the other hand: Many Biden supporters will be quite unnerved if the Selzer poll again shows the president with surprising strength at the finish.

(NYT)
​
 
bypass said:
FiveThirtyEights coverage of the polls is really thorough, I'm started watching their videos religiously.

I do think Biden will manage it when all is said and done. There's just too many seperate factors that would have to fall Trumps way for him to manage a second term, but again...who knows.
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They're on my left wing American political pundits rota since this election cycle began.

Will kinda miss it once it's all over.
 
I'm a MESS with this approaching so quickly

Got into a tiff with my conservative republican boss about COURT PACKING this week

I have more faith than I did earlier this year about a Biden win, but he needs enough of a lead for the news outlets to call it the NIGHT OF. Otherwise these next few months are going to be insufferable.
 
POP! said:
I'm a MESS with this approaching so quickly

Got into a tiff with my conservative republican boss about COURT PACKING this week

I have more faith than I did earlier this year about a Biden win, but he needs enough of a lead for the news outlets to call it the NIGHT OF. Otherwise these next few months are going to be insufferable.
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Which state do you live in POP! ?
 
My mum’s sister and her family in Pennsylvania are Trump voting fucktards. My dad’s family in California are far better people.
 
Oh God

A federal judge in Texas scheduled an emergency hearing for Monday on whether Houston officials unlawfully allowed drive-through voting and should toss more than 100,000 votes in the Democratic-leaning area, Reuters reports.

US district judge Andrew Hanen in Houston on Friday agreed to hear arguments by a Republican state legislator and others that votes already cast at drive-through voting sites in the Houston area should be rejected.

The lawsuit was brought on Wednesday by plaintiffs including Steve Hotze, a conservative activist, and state representative Steve Toth. They accused Harris County Clerk Chris Hollins, a Democrat, of exceeding his constitutional authority by allowing drive-through voting as an alternative to walk-in voting during the coronavirus pandemic.

Harris County, home to about 4.7 million people, is the third most populous county in the United States. It currently has 10 drive-through polling sites, which are available to all voters.

The lawsuit came after the Texas Supreme Court, one of the most conservative state courts in the United States, rejected similar bids to halt drive-through voting in Harris County.

The plaintiffs ask the court to “reject any votes it finds were cast in violation of the Texas Election Code” and “requir all memory cards from the 10 drive-thru voting locations be secured and not entered or downloaded into the Tally machine until this Court issues an order on this Complaint.”

Hanen was appointed by President George W. Bush, a Republican.

The request is “wholly unreasonable,” Democratic groups, including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said on Friday in a motion asking to intervene in the case.

“Plaintiffs ask this Court to throw Texas*s election into chaos by invalidating the votes of more than 100,000 eligible Texas voters who cast their ballots at drive-thru voting locations at the invitation of county officials and in reliance on the Texas Supreme Court’s decision to allow drive-thru voting to proceed,” the groups said.
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it's not good news in the Iowa poll from Selzer I mentioned yesterday.

A highly respected poll of Iowa finds a surge of Trump support.
You could be forgiven for feeling déjà vu after looking at Ann Selzer’s latest poll of Iowa.

The survey, released Saturday, showed a late shift toward President Trump, after months in which he and Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic presidential nominee, had been running neck-and-neck in her polling of the state.

The most respected political polling operation in Iowa, Selzer & Company was the rare firm to pick up on the last-minute shift in support toward Mr. Trump in 2016 that would ultimately deliver him Iowa, other Midwestern states and the Electoral College.

The new survey, conducted as usual on behalf of The Des Moines Register, showed 48 percent of likely Iowa voters supporting Mr. Trump, and 41 percent backing Mr. Biden. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Selzer polls conducted in June and September had found the candidates locked in a statistical tie, most recently at 47 percent each.

When pressed, an additional 5 percent of likely voters in the new poll said they knew whom they would vote for — or already had — but didn’t want to tell. Altogether, 94 percent of likely voters said they had either cast their ballots already or come to a firm decision on whom to support, meaning there are few persuadable voters left in the race’s final days.

Along the way he cut deeply into Mr. Biden’s lead among women in the state, which dropped to nine points from 20 points in September.
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A major swing toward Trump in Iowa does not bode at all well...
 
3 lots of good news there, but a measly 3 point polling lead in Florida probably won't bring it close to actually swinging blue (and the Florida winner has taken the electoral college in the last 6 elections)
 
Biden will still win even if there's a significant swing to Trump in several swing states. I'm fairly confident.

Sadly the three most likely states are all slow voters, so if Florida goes to Trump its gonna be a nail biter.
 
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