2024 US Presidential Election

[Jark]

New York Times average of polls has her four points ahead in Pennsylvania but deadlock nationally

Harris Had Stronger Debate, Polls Find, but the Race Remains Deadlocked

Kamala Harris holds an edge over Donald J. Trump in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. But new surveys found that the race remains a tossup nationally.

www.nytimes.com

 

[funky]

538 has Harris up in Pennsylvania by 5

 

[ZenGiraffe]

Remember that the 538 model is different this time around and is untested on a presidential election, so don't get your hopes up based on it

 

[Lucille]

So WHAT’S THE TRUTH?

 

[funky]

It really isn't. Harris is almost certain to win the popular vote, but it's not comfortable in the slightest that she'll win the electoral college

I meant her momentum. We’ve seen the maths regarding the electoral college, it’s still wide open. Plus it’s weeks away. Donnie can squeeze in a couple more assassination attempts before then.

Another encouraging sign is the number of paths to victory. Trump was WAY ahead in this when Harris first took over, and now she’s leading on number of ways to win. That’s also an extraordinary turnaround.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

The EVIL Nate Silver (who has the old 538 model) has Pennsylvania closer but still in Harris' favour

 

[funky]

Remember that the 538 model is different this time around and is untested on a presidential election, so don't get your hopes up based on it

You can also break it down by poll sample.

There are only 2 national polls that had Trump winning (by 1%) in the last week.

Both by the same polling company, with a sample of 800 each. Rubbish.

Another poll had 11,000 respondents - that one had Harris up by 5.

 

[Lucille]

Put me in the it won’t be close on the night and Harris is winning easily bucket.

 

[Lucille]

With the caveat that I’m wrong 80% of the time.

 

[funky]

New York Times average of polls has her four points ahead in Pennsylvania but deadlock nationally

View attachment 29662

Harris Had Stronger Debate, Polls Find, but the Race Remains Deadlocked

Kamala Harris holds an edge over Donald J. Trump in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. But new surveys found that the race remains a tossup nationally.

www.nytimes.com

That’s not an average of polls?

It’s from Siena College?

 

[Jark]

sorry, you're correct dear (but your usage of the question mark is not?)

 

[RJN]

I still listen to and love the 538 podcast, but they don’t even acknowledge their model on it anymore, so not a great sign for its validity

 

[Joseph]

 

[funky]

Anyone who connects words constantly with “look, y’know, right, okay, I mean” is a sociopath. ISWIS.

 

[Dark Carnival]

I mean, it's starting to look, dare I say, comfortable

It’s already been said, but I really don’t think it is.

 

[Joseph]

STAND UP

 

[VoR]

 

[VoR]

 

[VoR]

 

[Joseph]

Oh Jesus

 

[funky]

 

[K.C.]

What's next up from "unhinged"?

 

[VoR]

 

[Nancy]

If Donald Trump a character in Animal Crossing, who would he be? And the same question applied to Kamala Harris.

 

[Joseph]

An election isn’t complete without various sex scandals

 

[Joseph]

Also LOL

 

[ZenGiraffe]

 

[K.C.]

The state of this lineup!

 

[Joseph]

Oh Janice

 

[ZenGiraffe]

 

[Lucille]

 

[K.C.]

Just when Moopy was coming around to liking her again.

Next tour cancelled due to being cancelled.

 

[Lucille]

Everyone has a device in their pocket where you can pull up a picture of him in about 4 seconds! Mama, let’s research!

 

[Joseph]

I guess her brother Randy (who manages her) is an anti-vaxx Trump supporter so that probably adds to it

 

[RJN]

There’s probably some trauma in that family

 

[VoR]

More MUST HAVE MERCH just dropped.

 

[Joseph]

 

[K.C.]

that movie has no right being that camp.

 

[Dark Carnival]

Oh Janice

 

[Dark Carnival]

How THICK is she?