Coronavirus

[Pingu]

Oof. Positive cases creeping up towards realism too. The sad thing is, roughly 3 weeks worth of death number rises are "baked in" already.

Which is of course tragic. However the number of daily new cases has JUST about doubled in those 3 weeks, so we’re not looking at daily deaths creeping into the thousands just yet.

Obviously a major touch wood moment but the rate of spread does seem to have slowed down from a few weeks ago so I don’t think we’re in the midst of a March/April style spiralling.

 

[Rita]

panicking that they’re about to properly lockdown Glasgow

bye bye gym

GLASGOW? Can you stop SKIRTING around the subject and let us know WHAT IS GOING ON. Although last I remember GIANT was in Glasgow.

 

[Rita]

Take it to community forum love. Just LET US IN.

 

[Cloud]

Which is of course tragic. However the number of daily new cases has JUST about doubled in those 3 weeks, so we’re not looking at daily deaths creeping into the thousands just yet.

Obviously a major touch wood moment but the rate of spread does seem to have slowed down from a few weeks ago so I don’t think we’re in the midst of a March/April style spiralling.

I certainly hope your take is correct

Quarter of the peak on vents is getting a bit concerning

 

[Rita]

THAT'S LIKE 5% OF THE POPULATION OF CHIPPING NORTON!!!!

TOO MANY!!

 

[Dark Carnival]

Well come to Lockdown 2.0 bitches :emoji_v:

 

[Lucille]

See you in 3 weeks!

 

[RS]

So jealous

 

[Apoca]

Well come to Lockdown 2.0 bitches :emoji_v:

We're gonna have a great November, hun.

 

[Rita]

Well come to Lockdown 2.0 bitches :emoji_v:

As bad as the first time?

 

[Dark Carnival]

As bad as the first time?

Schools still open and the fucker still can bring himself to enforce working from home. So as bad as last time + nowhere as effective.

 

[Dark Carnival]

Really you guys think you’ve got a clown for PM you should see our president.

 

[Star]

I do agree schools should be the last to close this time round.

 

[Cerro de Casa]

Oh I can't stand Macron either.

 

[Cerro de Casa]

I say no to a lockdown at this point.

 

[Star]

Really you guys think you’ve got a clown for PM you should see our president.

But at least he's doing something. Ours is just SO SH*T. No one has a clue what's going on, it's changing everyday, and even in the highest tier, there's not really much shutdown. Nobody is listening, we need tougher measures.

 

[Star]

I say no to a lockdown at this point.

What do you think would help kerb it right now?

 

[Dark Carnival]

I do agree schools should be the last to close this time round.

When they have been shown, along with workplaces, to be the place where virus transmission happens the most?

 

[Cerro de Casa]

What do you think would help kerb it right now?

I can't see a way out except for a vaccine at this point. It'll probably be there in 6-12 months but it won't be a great one - still it's better than the current situation.

But in the meantime I think better test & trace with a combination of targeted restrictions is the way to go rather than a national lockdown. This government had the fear factor when they instituted the first lockdown but they don't have it now. People won't comply this time - so it will be useless in the sense of controlling it and it will inflict more economic damage and also exacerbate mental health and other medical problems..

 

[Dark Carnival]

But at least he's doing something. Ours is just SO SH*T. No one has a clue what's going on, it's changing everyday, and even in the highest tier, there's not really much shutdown. Nobody is listening, we need tougher measures.

Well something had to be done seeing the way it’s spiralling out of control here. But it’s all being done to keep people at work even when it’s not necessary. And keeping their kids in school so they can be at work. France has this backwards mentality with working from home.

 

[Cerro de Casa]

When they have been shown, along with workplaces, to be the place where virus transmission happens the most?

I really think that at this point the focus should be on hospital admissions and deaths rather than total number of infections.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

I would also say that the long term to damage to keeping Kids home probably outweighs the risks of having them pass the virus. They should absolutely be the last things to close.

 

[Rita]

I can't see a way out except for a vaccine at this point. It'll probably be there in 6-12 months but it won't be a great one - still it's better than the current situation.

But in the meantime I think better test & trace with a combination of targeted restrictions is the way to go rather than a national lockdown. This government had the fear factor when they instituted the first lockdown but they don't have it now. People won't comply this time - so it will be useless in the sense of controlling it and it will inflict more economic damage and also exacerbate mental health and other medical problems..

I think we will be heading for a second lockdown now that France and Germany have both announced one. It may not be in the next week, but I would say a second lockdown is pretty inevitable. Our government follow, they do not lead.

 

[Cerro de Casa]

I think we will be heading for a second lockdown now that France and Germany have both announced one. It may not be in the next week, but I would say a second lockdown is pretty inevitable. Our government follow, they do not lead.

Oh, of course we will be heading towards lockdown. @Sheena predicted months ago and I kept thinking it won't happen.

But I don't think it's the right thing to do. Not at this point anymore. And I don't think Germany and France are doing the right thing either.

We went into lockdown too late the first time and came out too early. This won't fix it.

 

[Rita]

Oh, of course we will be heading towards lockdown. @Sheena predicted months ago and I kept thinking it won't happen.

But I don't think it's the right thing to do. And I don't think Germany and France are doing the right thing either.

It is an impossible situation really, as I agree with everything you said in the above post but I don’t think the restrictions currently imposed will do anything at all to curb the virus growing and getting stronger towards the end of the year, and in to next year. I think a lockdown will happen, and I really just wish they would get on with it now.

 

[Cerro de Casa]

It is an impossible situation really, as I agree with everything you said in the above post but I don’t think the restrictions currently imposed will do anything at all to curb the virus growing and getting stronger towards the end of the year, and in to next year. I think a lockdown will happen, and I really just wish they would get on with it now.

That I agree with. They might as well just do it now rather than keep delaying it but, true to form, they'll just fuck it up like everything else. It's like groundhog day with this lot I swear...

 

[Dark Carnival]

I really think that at this point the focus should be on hospital admissions and deaths rather than total number of infections.

They’re literally directly related.

 

[Nancy]

ON THE PLUS SIDE, @lolly’S AWAY DAY IN NOVEMBER TAKES ANOTHER STEP TOWARDS LIKELY CANCELLATION

 

[lolly]

ON THE PLUS SIDE, @lolly’S AWAY DAY IN NOVEMBER TAKES ANOTHER STEP TOWARDS LIKELY CANCELLATION

Currently sounding out being a CONSCIENTIOUS OBJECTOR

 

[Cerro de Casa]

They’re literally directly related.

I'm not disputing that; but the hospital bed occupancy and mortality are more pertinent for healthcare service capacity.

 

[Apoca]

Oh, of course we will be heading towards lockdown. @Sheena predicted months ago and I kept thinking it won't happen.

But I don't think it's the right thing to do. Not at this point anymore. And I don't think Germany and France are doing the right thing either.

We went into lockdown too late the first time and came out too early. This won't fix it.

Our test, track and trace system has arguably been one of the better ones in Europe so far but we’ve gone from months of being in (low) triple digits to 15,000 a day within weeks.

I agree the main focus should be hospital admissions and ICU occupancy. The hospitalization rate has gone down from ~ 20% to 5% here between April and August because much greater care has been put in avoidIng risk for the vulnerable.

However, our have numbers went from 2,000 at the beginning of the month to 15,000 now. Our health officials are currently only able to track 25% of the infection chains, the other 75% are unclear. Our hospital admissions doubled in the past 10 days, out ICU occupancy doubled in the past 9 days. So we’re really only getting started and these number will get uglier within the next three weeks - even if we’re still far from running out of ventilators or ICU capacities. Reports of dozens of cases in care facilities and old people’s home are trickling in again, too.

I’d rather things are shut down in November, try and get the numbers back down to something that allows for proper tracking and tracing. Less infections during the second half of December = less of a chance to see a massive spike after the holidays. I really don’t like the idea where we’re headed in early 2021 if we’re at 30,000 cases per day in Mid-December. Many people’s resolves WILL get soft during the holidays, they will meet their families, parents, grandparents. And that’s a real corona powder keg.

sorry, that was a bit of a ramble.

 

[Rita]

You are SPOT ON @Apocalypt Flyer and I agree with every damn word of it.

 

[Cerro de Casa]

Our test, track and trace system has arguably been one of the better ones in Europe so far but we’ve gone from months of being in (low) triple digits to 15,000 a day within weeks.

But surely that means that your test, track and trace system isn't working - and that is my whole point. If you had a better system (i.e. if more money was invested into it by governments) then you may not have been in this situation.

Governments are panicking and they think 'circuit breaker' lockdowns are the way to go, but the minute you relax measures infections will go back up again. And without a good track and trace system that is inevitable.

The UK track and trace system is absolutely shambolic and actually shameful. And our government is starting their spin like lockdown is the way to go because it's the public's fault for breaking the rules which is just disgraceful.

 

[win_the_game]

I think we will be heading for a second lockdown now that France and Germany have both announced one. It may not be in the next week, but I would say a second lockdown is pretty inevitable. Our government follow, they do not lead.

I’m just glad I’ve got a lot of my Christmas shopping done already before we end up in some sort of inevitable Welsh style lockdown.

 

[HeLikedTurner]

The WHO said all along that lockdowns should only be used as a last resort to buy time for governments to build up infrastructure. In other words, to buy time to get a massive test & trace system in place, as well as build up the hospital capacity and PPE etc. The UK has failed in that regard. Ireland has failed. Many other countries failed to do that too.

 

[Kate]

Surely the best greatest bigliest test & trace system evah is still no good if people don't give a shit and do what they like?

 

[Cerro de Casa]

And (sorry for rambling) : the fact of the matter is that you can't really test, track and trace with tens of thousands of new infections.

The government (particularly in the UK) had one chance with the first national lockdown: they had the fear factor and, for better or worse, they had the electorate still behind them. And they fucked it up by going into lockdown too late and coming out too early. We had Matt Hancock telling us on TV a few weeks ago that infections were 'stable' only for a massive U-turn a week later. They dropped the ball with the first lockdown. We should have stayed in it for longer while they sorted out a better track & trace system and then appointed someone who actually knows about epidemiology and public health and not Dido fucking Harding. Then we could have had a chance.

At this point it is groundhog day all over again. And we'll have another lockdown that we'll enter too late (a few weeks after France and Germany) and no doubt we'll come out of it too early when new infections will 'only' be around 500-1000 but the government will paint it like some success story.

Honestly you couldn't make this shit up if you tried...

 

[Apoca]

But surely that means that your test, track and trace system isn't working - and that is my whole point. If you had a better system (i.e. if more money was invested into it by governments) then you may not have been in this situation.

Governments are panicking and they think 'circuit breaker' lockdowns are the way to go, but the minute you relax measures infections will go back up again. And without a good track and trace system that is inevitable.

The UK track and trace system is absolutely shambolic and actually shameful. And our government is starting their spin like lockdown is the way to go because it's the public's fault for breaking the rules which is just disgraceful.

Our (free) tests come back quickly, tracking and tracing has worked well as long as numbers were below 5,000 cases per day but due to the exponential increase in cases in recent weeks it’s exhausting and surpassing the (maybe still not properly equipped) public health departments.

In Germany’s case it really is a matter of trying to stop it from spiraling another 2 weeks so it gets back to a point where proven methods have worked over the summer. At least Mutti Merkel isn’t blaming the public, looks at it with her scientist brain and says “We didn’t want it to happen but we new there was a chance it would despite our best efforts.”

And when the best efforts aren’t enough, what else are you gonna do other than be firm with the hand brake? I agree it’s far from an ideal solution at it shows many countries are badly equipped for dealing with a pandemic. Some countries handled it better, others handled it far worse but pretty much all of Europe is in the thick of it again.

 

[Cerro de Casa]

Surely the best greatest bigliest test & trace system evah is still no good if people don't give a shit and do what they like?

It depends. If you have a good system and isolate everyone who tests positive quickly then it could work...

In 6-12 months if a vaccine becomes available then you could also combine it with vaccines (like when they used to go and give mumps and meningitis vaccines in uni halls..) and targeted restrictions.

But, as ever with this government, there is no nuance or attention to detail. Just react, react, react.

 

[Indie]

A national lockdown is possible, perhaps even probable.

I'm putting my money on "Tier 4" being implemented in November instead. Proper lockdowns on a regional level. Sure, there's still risk of spread, but Boris will do anything to keep London open for business (including ignoring actual infection rates there)