General Election 2019

[big ron]

The Brexit Party/Conservative pact won't happen. Far too many egos.

300,000 young people have just registered to vote, generally speaking they don't vote en mass for the tories.

Conservatives will lose votes to Brexit Party & Lib Dem, and Labour will lose votes. There will be no clear majority, but lets be clear here, the Tories have more to lose, because if they don't clearly win, then they've lost. Labour can't lose something they don't have, but they can then form a majority with other parties.

 

[VoR]

I fear the Lib Dem/Labour split is going to be really fucking nasty in a lot of potentially marginal seats.

 

[Indie]

These kinda numbers would give a them a well over 100 majority. Now Farage is basically pulling out I'd say, without something drastic, it's all over until May 2024.

Farage isn't pulling out. As Ron says, Tories won't pull out of any seats, which means that Brexit party will stand everywhere. This is good news. (Unless they change their mind)

 

[AGinAg (37)]

In a perverse twist I guess here's hoping Farage smashes it!

 

[big ron]

Farage has said he won't work with Johnson unless he scraps the WAB. If he does that to appease Farage, he's opening himself up to an absolute beasting.

 

[octophone]

Farage wants to be a coalition partner - that's his one route into the political mainstream and into some sort of power.

What he envisages is the Tories once again coming up short of a majority but The Brexit Party taking enough seats to be in the kind of position the DUP are in now. Hence targeting Labour seats in "Leave" areas. Tories come up, say, 12 short - he has 15-20 seats taken from Labour, he becomes the kingmaker.

I hope to absolutely fuck that doesn't happen and he falls flat on his arse.

 

[Indie]

Farage has said he won't work with Johnson unless he scraps the WAB. If he does that to appease Farage, he's opening himself up to an absolute beasting.

Especially given the trump endorsement of that move too. Just imagine Johnson doing something because Trump said so. That would be electoral gold.

 

[big ron]

Farage wants to be a coalition partner - that's his one route into the political mainstream and into some sort of power.

What he envisages is the Tories once again coming up short of a majority but The Brexit Party taking enough seats to be in the kind of position the DUP are in now. Hence targeting Labour seats in "Leave" areas. Tories come up, say, 12 short - he has 15-20 seats taken from Labour, he becomes the kingmaker.

I hope to absolutely fuck that doesn't happen and he falls flat on his arse.

I don't think that would happen to be honest. As much as politics is wild at the minute, these battles are still fought on a local level as well as national. It would be unprecedented for a new party to come in and win 10-15 seats on a single issue.

 

[VoR]

Another thing worth considering is that, having let so many former Tory MPs into the fold now, assuming those MPs mostly retain their seats, it's really going to be almost impossible for Jo Swinson to strike any kind of pact that puts Corbyn in No 10 even if she herself could be persuaded...

 

[octophone]

True, but this is the closest we've had in my lifetime to a single issue election.

 

[Shirley]

assuming those MPs mostly retain their seats

GOOD LUCK WITH THAT HUNS

 

[AGinAg (37)]

Farage won't get any seats. The pact would be electoral withdrawal in return for a slice of the power I presume. Even if the Brexit Party only get 7% of the vote that could swing the election from a huge majority to another minority government. It wouldn't entirely surprise me if Johnson agrees to something.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

This already feels like a dirty messy soul destroying election campaign.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

What's the news in Scotland. Tory wipeout on the cards?

 

[big ron]

What about Labour and SNP working together? I saw Corbyn saying a second ref on Scotland wouldn't happen immediately but he'd consider it.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

What about Labour and SNP working together? I saw Corbyn saying a second ref on Scotland wouldn't happen immediately but he'd consider it.

SNP own Scotland. The only time Labour and SNP would convene would be Westminster (in my dreams).

 

[Kala]

Labour have, I think, 7 MPs at the moment in Scotland, but they are predicted to lose all of them bar one in Edinburgh South, which they hold with a massive majority. I’m not sure why they still have a stronghold there and nowhere else. The Tories currently have 13 but are predicted to have between 3-5. Lib Dems have some right in the north and also Jo Swinson’s seat in East Dunbartonshire. They’re predicted to have around 5. This leaves the SNP with around 48-51 out of 59. They are massively helped by First past the post, but they’re still polling around 40% ish. They took a bit of a dip in 2017 but they’ve managed to regain most of that ground.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

Fuck this:
BBC News - General Election 2019: Government accused over 'political' Facebook ads
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50263197

 

[Broomhelga]

Another thing worth considering is that, having let so many former Tory MPs into the fold now, assuming those MPs mostly retain their seats, it's really going to be almost impossible for Jo Swinson to strike any kind of pact that puts Corbyn in No 10 even if she herself could be persuaded...

Are there any that can be expected to the retain their seats? Some of those constituencies had very low lib dem support at the last election.

 

[VoR]

I'm not sure. There are MPs that are genuinely very popular in their constituencies.

Probably not Tory ones, though.

 

[Tetris-Rock]

There are a lot of people out there who have abhorrent views on transgendered women, most of these are CIS women. They might not be as vocal as TERFs but they're out there online.

I’m really confused - how does the contingent of people you are talking about differ from other online TERFs?

Another thing worth considering is that, having let so many former Tory MPs into the fold now, assuming those MPs mostly retain their seats, it's really going to be almost impossible for Jo Swinson to strike any kind of pact that puts Corbyn in No 10 even if she herself could be persuaded...

Even without the influx of Tories into her party, Jo Swinson is basically a yellow Tory - albeit more in the Cameronite persuasion. What is politically separating her with someone like Ruth Davidson? Anyone that thinks there is a slightest chance that she would play kingmaker for Jeremy Corbyn to assemble an anti-Tory coalition hasn’t paid attention to the fact that she wasn’t even willing to support a vote of no confidence that would have made Corbyn Prime Minister TEMPORARILY.

I don’t want to break Cwej’s heart here but I think she’s FAR more likely to support the Tories back into power on the promise of a far more moderate Brexit. I was sad and foolish enough to CAMPAIGN for the Lib Dems in 2010 where I was told to assure voters on the doorstep literally days before the election that there was NO WAY we’d back a Tory Government in coalition. One would hope they’d have learned but they haven’t really suffered in the longer term and amid the posturing around principles it is easy to forget that political parties are ultimately in search of power and influence. I can see them justifying such a move to themselves through a mantra of “more we can do in Government than outside of it” much like before.

Also have I mentioned how much I fucking hate Jo Swinson and her insufferable Bearsden-tinged brand of smug brownie guide, supply teacher, white feminist girl boss energy?

 

[cwej]

The idea that the Lib Dems haven't suffered in the long term is ludicrous They had 59 seats 9 years ago - and they currently have less than half of that, even with more than 25% of their seats coming from people who weren't even elected as Liberal Democrats. They won't do it again. Not in this election at any rate, when their SOLE RAISON D'ETRE at the moment is stopping Brexit.

 

[cwej]

Theresa May actually comes across quite well in that video for literally the first time ever That little wink made me warm to her oddly...!!

 

[Tetris-Rock]

The idea that the Lib Dems haven't suffered in the long term is ludicrous They had 59 seats 9 years ago - and they currently have less than half of that, even with more than 25% of their seats coming from people who weren't even elected as Liberal Democrats.

So they had 59 seats up until 2015. Obviously lost most of those. However, they are now polling closely to or sometimes exceeding Labour and are set to do well in this election.

I take your point but I don’t think a couple of years in the dark counts as suffering in the long term.

 

[GNL]

Jo Swinson personally priced working people out of employment tribunals, leading to an 85% drop in the amount of SEX DISCRIMINATION cases brought to tribunal the following year, so I really can't get behind her "they won't invite me to the debates because I'm a ~girly swot~ Sign this petition so I can ~lean in~ and get a ~seat at the table~" nonsense.

Her feminism is empty rhetoric. Girl power! As long as you're not POOR or DISABLED.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

I don't like Jo Swinson and I don't especially love the Lib Dems these days but I will still be voting for them because the Tories SO much fucking worse.

 

[octophone]

Her feminism is empty rhetoric. Girl power! As long as you're not POOR or DISABLED.

She's a total charlatan. But this is typical of the kind of self-important delusion of adequacy that we in Scotland associate with Milngavie.

 

[big ron]

I really don't like the Lib Dem's campaigning style to be honest. Its really getting on my tits.

 

[SDF]

She's a total charlatan. But this is typical of the kind of self-important delusion of adequacy that we in Scotland associate with Milngavie.

!

 

[AGinAg (37)]

I suspect they thought they were a getting a Nicola Sturgeon type politician with Jo Swinson. Sadly she lacks any of the smirking joy of Nicola, and comes across as a rather sour unpleasant bitch frankly.

 

[Tetris-Rock]

I don't like Jo Swinson and I don't especially love the Lib Dems these days but I will still be voting for them because the Tories SO much fucking worse.

All of what I said above considered, I would obviously endorse a tactical Lib Dem vote in a clear Tory / Lib Dem marginal.

I don’t like Swinson but a Lib Dem is always preferable to someone who has joined the actual Conservative Party.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

If Labour or Green had a chance here, I wouldn't hesitate in changing my vote. The left really need to rally around the fact that STOPPING the TORIES is the name of the game in 2019. It really is THAT FUCKING SIMPLE.

 

[Shirley]

Also have I mentioned how much I fucking hate Jo Swinson and her insufferable Bearsden-tinged brand of smug brownie guide, supply teacher, white feminist girl boss energy?

TELL IT

 

[AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaAAaaaA]

Fracking in the UK officially BANNED.

It’s been all-but-dead for a while, but interesting time to announce a total ban on a hugely unpopular environmental issue

Regardless though, a genuinely positive thing for all.

 

[Sheena]

Why does everyone keep cheering the fracking "ban"?

When they've said quite clearly they only aren't doing anything unless "evidence is found". Which it will be because Boris is a massive advocate for it!

I DESPAIR!

 

[big ron]

Not banned, just suspended. A thin attempt at green washing.

 

[Sheena]

Not banned, just suspended. A thin attempt at green washing.

I don't know if it's because people want it more than anything but even my VERY LEFT WING FRIENDS are all trumpeting it on Facebook.

SOME PEOPLE ARE JUST THICK.

 

[big ron]

I saw someone defend it as a small win after a lot of fighting, which I kind of get. I imagine most people passionate about this sort of thing wouldn't vote Tory anyway.

 

[Kala]

I’m really confused - how does the contingent of people you are talking about differ from other online TERFs?

I suppose it depends what you define a TERF as. For example, There’s many women out there who say they would feel uncomfortable sharing a changing room at the gym with a trans woman. Absolute fucking guff, they’re not being mega vocal about it online. Does it mean that anyone who has some sort of views like this, and it varies on a scale of how strong the views are - is a TERF? I made the mistake of looking on Netmums when I was doing some research - the vast majority of women on there were very supporting of Joanna Cherry. It curdled my stomach, but someone saying something on an anonymous forum doesn’t necessarily make them a TERF. Or maybe it does. I’m not sure if there’s been any studies or polls done on this topic, but I think the figures of women who have some issues with trans women are higher than we think.

She's a total charlatan. But this is typical of the kind of self-important delusion of adequacy that we in Scotland associate with Milngavie.

She has become rather unsufferable since she became leader and she’s very blind sighted in her views. Almost cutting off her nose to spite her face, or however you say the idiom. She’s not all bad though, she’s been very supportive of LGBT rights in her voting record. But I’m not convinced they’re going to do that well
In the elections.

I suspect they thought they were a getting a Nicola Sturgeon type politician with Jo Swinson. Sadly she lacks any of the smirking joy of Nicola, and comes across as a rather sour unpleasant bitch frankly.

For all that Nicola has her problems at times, at least she comes across as pretty down to earth. She’s a working class woman who did well for herself and I think a lot of people in Scotland relate to her. Jo Swinson doesn’t appeal to people in the same way.

 

[cwej]

I don't think that would happen to be honest. As much as politics is wild at the minute, these battles are still fought on a local level as well as national. It would be unprecedented for a new party to come in and win 10-15 seats on a single issue.

I mean it literally did happen to the Labour party when they were formed. I don't know why everyone is so convinced that things will never change... Could totally see the Brexit party winning 15-20 seats if they push in the right areas.