How many seats will Reform win next week?

[Jark]

Farage's Nazis have made massive momentum gains in the last months and weeks. how many seats will they take next week?

 

[Jark]

I've said 16-24, 18 if I had to guess, but I also would not be surprised if it's much worse than that.

 

[GNL]

 

[rhythmbandit]

I suspect 50+ but wouldn't be surprised if it was near 100.

 

[GNL]

I suspect they will actually win a very small handful of seats BUT be the second biggest party in terms of vote share.

 

[Jark]

I'm thinking there must be a massive "shy Reform" vote the polls haven't successfully accounted for, like the shy Tory vote before everyone turned on them, but potentially even more under-estimated because the media (rightly) portrays Reform as so explicitly racist/hard right and the Karens won't want it known

 

[Tisch]

I'm thinking a similarly all talk and no trousers result when UKIP/Brexit parties were making bones about doing well. Still SOMETHING though. 3 seats roundabout?

 

[octophone]

I suspect they will actually win a very small handful of seats BUT be the second biggest party in terms of vote share.

I think they'll be 3rd in votes and have 1, maybe 2 seats and the right wing will suddenly be VERY interested in Proportional Representation.

Which means we can tall Farage that we've had a referendum, we can't possibly have another one and he lost, get over it.

 

[VoR]

Very much hope to have egg on my face come next week, but a combination of what's happening in Europe and the fact that they're dominating the headlines in the face of two candidates that nobody very much likes or feels enthused to vote for gives me the fear that they're going to be the *big* shock upset of this election.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

I don't see them getting more than a handful. The vote is so widespread over multiple constituencies.

The left/ centre vote is much stronger than the right vote this time.

 

[cwej]

I'm thinking there must be a massive "shy Reform" vote the polls haven't successfully accounted for, like the shy Tory vote before everyone turned on them, but potentially even more under-estimated because the media (rightly) portrays Reform as so explicitly racist/hard right and the Karens won't want it known

There’s also a bunch of people who won’t vote for a party they think won’t win the election - that’s why the greens don’t pick up more votes, despite their politics speaking to more than 4% of the population.

I think those things will balance out so they do not pick up all those votes from the ‘shy voters’.

As much as I hate to say it though, if they do get close to 15% of the vote and end up with less than 5 seats it really speak to a very very broken voting system.