Moldova: Presidential Election and EU Referendum

[auretz]

Moldova is holding an EU membership referendum today, as well as a Presidential election (to see if their incumbent, who is pro-Europe, is re-elected). Things seem more likely to go well there than in Georgia, who have a vote imminently that is de facto a vote on pivoting towards Russia or Europe.

Moldova and Georgia: Two pivotal votes on their future in Europe

Both states have felt the shadow of alleged Russian interference, and both are former Soviet republics.

www.bbc.com

 

[Tisch]

Moldova is holding an EU membership referendum today, as well as a Presidential election (to see if their incumbent, who is pro-Europe, is re-elected). Things seem more likely to go well there than in Georgia, who have a vote imminently that is de facto a vote on pivoting towards Russia or Europe.

Moldova and Georgia: Two pivotal votes on their future in Europe

Both states have felt the shadow of alleged Russian interference, and both are former Soviet republics.

www.bbc.com

Seems they rejected EU membership domestically, but the diaspora vote overwhelmingly voted pro-EU and it's a "Da" overall. The incumbent pro-EU candidate has meanwhile won the first round of the presidential election.

Surprisingly 37.5% of Transnistria voted Yes to EU Membership. Thought it'd be closer to 0! I had thought the rest of Moldova was much more pro-EU than anti so the results are somewhat surprising.

 

[auretz]

It was only 5% "Da" in Gagauzia - Gagauzia and Transnistria single-handedly skewed the overall result (although I'm somewhat surprised they even had the vote in Transnistria). Naturally these two regions are the ones most heavily influenced by Russia (election monitors witnessed people voting and then asking where to get their payment ) - all polling suggests acutal support in Moldova is around 70% pro. I'm sure this result will not lead to any problems whatsoever

 

[Tisch]

It was only 5% "Da" in Gagauzia - Gagauzia and Transnistria single-handedly skewed the overall result (although I'm somewhat surprised they even had the vote in Transnistria). Naturally these two regions are the ones most heavily influenced by Russia (election monitors witnessed people voting and then asking where to get their payment ) - all polling suggests acutal support in Moldova is around 70% pro. I'm sure this result will not lead to any problems whatsoever

Even so, 37% Yes in Transnistria and barely scraping 50% overall does suggest a significant No vote in Moldova proper, which has surprised me. (Gagauzia, while strong ties to Russia is surely too small fry to make massive waves in the overall result, no?)

Seems like there is a significant portion of the population happy with their current president, not looking to rely too much on Russia, but also rejecting lengthening their arms out into Europe, which is pretty mich everything against what the President stands for. I wonder if she'll have a rethink of her policy to avoid an unpleasant domestic situation.

 

[VoR]

Yes has now taken the lead by a razor-thin margin with 98% counted.

 

[auretz]

There are suggestions that upwards of 100,000 voters in Moldova proper may have been bought too, although it’s unclear at the moment what this number is based on. Maia Sandu has also done worse than anticipated in the Presidential vote and may even lose the run-off Even if 'Yes' wins overall, anything less than a clear result makes it very easy for Russia to rip the whole thing apart

 

[Tisch]

What are they calling their version of Brexit but the opposite? Mold-in?

MOLD-IN MEANS MOLD-IN

 

[VoR]

 

[big ron]

And we thought Brexit was divisive!

 

[Dark Carnival]

Poor tiny Moldova not justifying a new topic

 

[VoR]

News outlets now reporting that the pro-EU vote has won

Moldova votes yes to joining EU by tiny margin

This is a “defeat for Russia,” said key European lawmaker after nail-biting referendum.

www.politico.eu

 

[Kratz]

I bet Natalia Barbu is behind this.

 

[auretz]

It definitely wasn't expected to be anywhere near this close, but if even half of the rumours about vote buying are true then it's actually quite impressive that the 'Yes' vote still prevailed (even if only just!). I fear that the story won't end quite here though.

There's also a significant election in Georgia on Saturday which will almost certainly go badly (as in, the pro-Russia, anti-LGBT/west incumbents getting a continued mandate and the possibility of even a full slide towards being another Belarus). It's incredible given how Georgia was always one of the most anti-Russian republics within the USSR even, let alone before what happened in 2008.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

What do they even do with that? I mean Brexit was at least DIFFERENT PERCENTAGES.

 

[Tisch]

What do they even do with that? I mean Brexit was at least DIFFERENT PERCENTAGES.

I sense mess. Both sides claiming both a win and vote meddling.

If the president wins the presidential election, I've no idea what her stance will be though. They have 2030 as an aimed accession date, will she still push for that of half the population don't want it?

Re: the presidential election, can we expect a resurgence ala France where the populice get scared of the pro-Russian candidate in the final round?

It was risky putting the two votes on the same time, I imagine she's regretting it now.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

that of half the population don't want it?

Bold of you to take these election results as a true and accurate reflection of the population's will.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

What was the result expected to be? Is there polling from before the election?

 

[VoR]

Given the extent of the Russian tampering, I think the fact that it passed at all is a strong indication of Moldovan public sentiment. If the President makes it through the second round, I expect they'll press on with relatively minimal pushback.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

What was the result expected to be? Is there polling from before the election?

60% support for joining the EU is referenced in this article.

Moldovans back joining the EU by razor-thin majority | Moldova | The Guardian

Result after nearly 99% of votes counted shows 50.18% back enshrining path toward EU in constitution

amp.theguardian.com

 

[Tisch]

Bold of you to take these election results as a true and accurate reflection of the population's will.

Sorry, I'll add the word "supposed" in there next time.

My point still stands that the President has to decide what to do next with that result.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

Sorry, I'll add the word "supposed" in there next time.

My point still stands that the President has to decide what to do next with that result.

With the proviso that I know absolutely nothing about Moldovan Politics...

If she wins the presidential election, I think she'll want to do as much as possible to secure EU membership. I imagine she perceives Russia as the biggest threat to Moldova, and the EU is the best 'weapon' against that.

I mean, they are interfering to stop it from happening for a reason.

 

[VoR]

 

[funky]

The irony of the country that used to own you convincing/corrupting half of your country to remain independent.

 

[VoR]

 

[Marina Salty]

 

[AGinAg (37)]

I'm not surprised it was close because a) Russia definitely dipped their toes in b) the impression we got was a lot of pro-EU city dwellers protesting, but that ignores all the rest who took one look at pro-gay Europe remembered the good old days and happily put a cross next to AGAINST.

 

[VoR]

It’s bum-clenchingly close but it looks as though Maia Sandu is going to prevail over the paper Putin candidate in the second round presidential…

 

[VoR]

She did it

 

[Finn]

Most pleasing

 

[Soldi]

Let’s CELEBRATE

 

[VoR]

Let’s CELEBRATE

Moldova really said: