The United Kingdom: The Liz Truss CRASHING THE PORK MARKET WEEKS πŸ·πŸ–πŸ“‰πŸ“…πŸ₯¬

Is Penny Mordaunt going to lose to her AGAIN? How much more can she take?
 
I can feel it comin'
Oh, my heartbeat's out of my hands
Don't know what it is, but, oh
Just imagine

:disco: :disco: :disco:
 
The problem with narcissists is that they just never know when to FUCK OFF.

I can't see her getting back in so I'm happy for her to come and infect the party this time. That said she should be in PRISON for the damage she's done.
 
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Penny most likely won't hold her seat - unfortunately Liz almost certainly will.

She is still ahead in the polls in Portsmouth North and is actually fairly popular locally with the electorate there with her "local girl made good" narrative. Portsmouth North is fairly deprived and is a chasm away from Portsmouth South (in our joyous little red bubble) economically and politically. I also don't see a strong Labour candidate there, but I agree it's a possibility. And I would absolutely fucking love it!
 
She is still ahead in the polls in Portsmouth North and is actually fairly popular locally with the electorate there with her "local girl made good" narrative. Portsmouth North is fairly deprived and is a chasm away from Portsmouth South (in our joyous little red bubble) economically and politically. I also don't see a strong Labour candidate there, but I agree it's a possibility. And I would absolutely fucking love it!
Agreed. There’s definitely a personal vote for Penny (and her increased national profile probably helps also) - on a uniform swing she should be toast but she could pull through.
 
All of which leads to me what, if any, our Portillo moment is going to be. Rees Mogg seems a reasonable bet and I wouldn’t rule out Braverman (considering she is a new seat) - depends how bad things get.

Edit: Hunt and Gove of course
 
All of which leads to me what, if any, our Portillo moment is going to be. Rees Mogg seems a reasonable bet and I wouldn’t rule out Braverman (considering she is a new seat) - depends how bad things get.

Edit: Hunt and Gove of course

Braverman's new seat has only consolidated her lead, though.

It's only her ABSOLUTELY BATSHIT NONSENSE that will give us that moment- and how DELICIOUS it would be.
 
Notable Tories current likelihood of holding their seats based on the latest polling.

85% Mark Francois
82% Gavin Williamson
80% Kemi Badenoch
76% Michael Gove
73% Theresa May
72% Liz Truss
72% Suella Braverman
70% Priti Patel
65% Jeremy Hunt
63% Oliver Dowden
59% Thérèse Coffey
57% Rishi Sunak
46% Esther McVey
35% Jacob Rees-Mogg
35% Penny Mordaunt
24% Grant Shapps
22% Lee Anderson
22% Johnny Mercer
10% Steve Baker
10% Andrea Jenkyns
7% Jonathan Gullis
7% Iain Duncan Smith
 
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Notable Tories current likelihood of holding their seats based on the latest polling.

85% Mark Francois
82% Gavin Williamson
80% Kemi Badenoch
76% Michael Gove
73% Theresa May
72% Liz Truss
72% Suella Braverman
70% Priti Patel
65% Jeremy Hunt
63% Oliver Dowden
59% Thérèse Coffey
57% Rishi Sunak
46% Esther McVey
35% Jacob Rees-Mogg
35% Penny Mordaunt
24% Grant Shapps
22% Lee Anderson
22% Johnny Mercer
10% Steve Baker
10% Andrea Jenkyns
7% Jonathan Gullis
Those are some strange percentages. Sunak is sitting on a 30k majority and is PM. He seems far less likely to lose then, say, Hunt in SW Surrey (albeit it is being re-drawn).
 
I am desperate for my former school β€˜pal’ Simon Clarke to lose in Middlesbrough (and hopefully he will).
 
I dont trust Electoral Calculus’s individual seat forecasts. They must use a very simplistic uniform swing model and give bizarre results particularly when third parties are involved. In Cheadle (2019: Con 46%, LD 40%, Lab 14%) they have it as basically a three way marginal. Labour haven’t got more than 20% since the 1950s, but are given better odds than the Lib Dems.
 
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The highlight of her tiny speech was "Let's stop taxing and banning things".
 
Notable Tories current likelihood of holding their seats based on the latest polling.

85% Mark Francois
82% Gavin Williamson
80% Kemi Badenoch
76% Michael Gove
73% Theresa May
72% Liz Truss
72% Suella Braverman
70% Priti Patel
65% Jeremy Hunt
63% Oliver Dowden
59% Thérèse Coffey
57% Rishi Sunak
46% Esther McVey
35% Jacob Rees-Mogg
35% Penny Mordaunt
24% Grant Shapps
22% Lee Anderson
22% Johnny Mercer
10% Steve Baker
10% Andrea Jenkyns
7% Jonathan Gullis
7% Iain Duncan Smith
Oh I recently used to live in IDS’s seat, this is fun!
It’ll be way closer than that though. It’s ULEZ land and the Labour candidate is a Corbynista, she rubs the white van men right up the wrong way :ken:
 
Pretty sure that’s the room where I registered at my graduation.

THE GLAMOUR :disco:
 
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I'm really fascinated to see how the imminent HS2 cancellation announcement will impact the polls. it feels like it could be a big turning point in terms of what this country is willing to put up with. a high speed line running from fucking Old Oak Common terminating at Birmingham Curzon Street for god knows how close to 100 billion is a joke too far.

it would be GRAND if Labour could come out and commit to completing the northern leg, if elected. so of course it will be absent from their manifesto too.
 
also Truss's speech at the conference was embarrassing. she remains a TRAGIC orator, constantly stumbling over her words, and she doesn't look even SLIGHTLY convinced by her own argument that lower business tax fuels growth. and yet the number of MPs backing her bullshit apparently jumped to 60 today :D who ARE these lunatics?

fucking hideous eyebrows too.
 
it would be GRAND if Labour could come out and commit to completing the northern leg, if elected. so of course it will be absent from their manifesto too.
It feels like Labour's manifesto will be a post-it with the words "go on, please, it's been ages xx" given what a policy-free zone they are at the moment.
 
also Truss's speech at the conference was embarrassing. she remains a TRAGIC orator, constantly stumbling over her words, and she doesn't look even SLIGHTLY convinced by her own argument that lower business tax fuels growth. and yet the number of MPs backing her bullshit apparently jumped to 60 today :D who ARE these lunatics?

fucking hideous eyebrows too.

I'm absolutely here for the Tories's self harm era, I just wish they were doing it on the opposition benches.
 
I'm really fascinated to see how the imminent HS2 cancellation announcement will impact the polls. it feels like it could be a big turning point in terms of what this country is willing to put up with. a high speed line running from fucking Old Oak Common terminating at Birmingham Curzon Street for god knows how close to 100 billion is a joke too far.

it would be GRAND if Labour could come out and commit to completing the northern leg, if elected. so of course it will be absent from their manifesto too.
It's laughable and tragic. If the Tories stand the second leg down then it will increasingly hard and expensive for Labour to pick it up.

At last count, I think the first leg is still scheduled to run its full route (despite all the speculation), but let's see....
 
They know exactly what they are doing. Cancel the northern leg, Labour make it a manifesto pledge to reinstate, Labour get in, costs double thanks to paying off broken contracts and being forced to make new ones.

Then they can beat Labour about the head in the Mail and Telegraph about the cost even though its their fault.
 
Liz's team hard at work on that alternative budget


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