The USA: The Trump Years 2.0 (1 Viewer)

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Very much in line with the current Republican foreign policy "Neo-Monroe" doctrine. But they don't realize that "America First" or Western-primacy policy goals don't happen with these short-term stunts. These abrupt coercion tactics they love using (Venezuelan political decapitation, Chinese trade bans, Irani bunker buster attack etc) aren't going to achieve what they think it will.

They'll net some short-term leverage, but it's a huge long-term gamble because all of this is a double-edged sword. USA will make new enemies because they're removing leaders and causing disorder faster than they can build order; it's eroding norms the US will certainly need to invoke in the future; AND its rivals (which it just so happens to have LOTS of right now) are just going to JUMP at the opportunity of adopting similar justifications.

The 'international law' thing is non-issue. Appealing to any law that cannot be physically enforced is the equivalent of a dislike button. We saw the same thing with the International Criminal Court/Putin etc.
 
For a self-proclaimed fan of international law, what a SPINELESS TOSSER

The idea that Trump gives a shit about the will of the Venuzuelan people.
 
It's the podcasters, I feel for, having to work at the weekend with a hangover.

Emily Maitlis looked like she was mid sesh.
 
Glad some people are benefitting from it. It'll be a shortlived celebration I suspect.

www.cbs19news.com

Venezuelans in Florida rejoice over Maduro's fall, fret over future

Venezuelans who loathed President Nicolas Maduro and for years dreamed of his ouster hugged, sang and cried with joy Saturday over his seizure in a stunning nighttime US military raid.
www.cbs19news.com www.cbs19news.com


Chants celebrating Maduro's capture were heard on the streets of capital cities in Latin America and in Spain, where Venezuelans gathered to share their joy - and wonder what the future could hold.
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Where do we think Sir Cuck would draw the line? Would it have to be a NATO country before he'd speak out? Or would he duck even that?
 
I think Starmer has a messaging issue because his rhetoric definitely comes off as obedient/simpy. But ultimately I'm not sure how much different another British PM's decisions could've been. Because no matter which way you slice it, exercising radical geopolitical independence from the US is not in the UK's interest. The intelligence sharing, trade ties, joint operations, and mutual defense between the two goes back decades. That structural relationship is the backbone of NATO and other interests.

I know people understandably want to see their leaders stand up to Trump's thoughtless foreign policy but it's almost a waste of breath, and it would just give Trump more fuel. I don't think Starmer is choosing capitulation to appease Trump, but more so aiming for political upkeep DESPITE Trump, so that the relationship is still intact by the next President...he's just doing that with really cringey messaging.
 
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K.C. said:
I think Starmer has a messaging issue because his rhetoric definitely comes off as obedient/simpy. But ultimately I'm not sure how much different another British PM's decisions could've been. Because no matter which way you slice it, exercising radical geopolitical independence from the US is not in the UK's interest. The intelligence sharing, trade ties, joint operations, and mutual defense between the two goes back decades. That structural relationship is the backbone of NATO and other interests.

I know people understandably want to see their leaders stand up to Trump's thoughtless foreign policy but it's almost a waste of breath, and it would just give Trump more fuel. I don't think Starmer is choosing capitulation to appease Trump, but more so aiming for political upkeep DESPITE Trump, so that the relationship is still intact by the next President...he's just doing that with really cringey messaging.
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Whilst this does make sense, it's also all hinging on the assumption that this is temporary behaviour from the US, and things will return to normality once Trump's term is done.

In reality, Trump has plenty of time to completely FUCK everything before then. And every time they suffer NO consequences for this shit, it emboldens Trump and his successors, and we make it more likely that the next President is also an imperialistic nutcase. Of course we know our influence is rather LIMITED, but I do think silence means Greenland is very much the next logical step once Trump feels assured the West won't all side with Denmark for the sake of "special relationships".

Let's not be surprised if Trump declares the UK should be an American state in a couple of years.
 
I think Greenland and Canada are distractions and super unlikely to happen. I wouldn’t be surprised if we attach Cuba or another Latin American country
 
Shoat said:
Whilst this does make sense, it's also all hinging on the assumption that this is temporary behaviour from the US, and things will return to normality once Trump's term is done.

In reality, Trump has plenty of time to completely FUCK everything before then. And every time they suffer NO consequences for this shit, it emboldens Trump and his successors, and we make it more likely that the next President is also an imperialistic nutcase. Of course we know our influence is rather LIMITED, but I do think silence means Greenland is very much the next logical step once Trump feels assured the West won't all side with Denmark for the sake of "special relationships".

Let's not be surprised if Trump declares the UK should be an American state in a couple of years.
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I don't think I disagree with any of this, but none of it changes that Starmer's current course of action is still probably the best one - or rather, the most acceptable one. Trying to reason with a clown will only make him a clown too because Trump will stoop to any level. And risking the US/UK geopolitical relationship over someone like that is foolish and pointless (not to mention political suicide for Starmer himself). I'm not trying to paint Starmer as some kind of cunning mastermind, but his approach of toeing the line with MOR pleasantries is probably what's needed (for now), EVEN IF the optics look bogus.

Whether this is "temporary behavior" or not IS an issue, but that's something to PLAN for, not act on right now. What a post-Trump foreign policy will look like is HEAVILY speculative territory and I don't think it's in citizens' interests that their PM takes decisive political action based on very unknown future variables.

There's a lot on the line for the UK and Europe right now. I don't follow how well Starmer is doing with domestic policy (I'd love to but I can only invest in so much politics before I go STRAIGHT MAD), but at least in this fight give the guy a break. The options just aren't there.
 
RJN said:
I think Greenland and Canada are distractions and super unlikely to happen.
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Maybe not now, but I wouldn’t rule him out trying to do something after the World Cup in America.
 
I read something really interesting today on LinkedIn by someone in the oil trade. Apparently Venezuela's oil is voluminous but proper wank, and there will be little appetite for the massive infrastructure investment needed to actually refine it into something the world needs. This is coupled with the fact that there is an oversupply of 3.8 million barrels a day!

The author said Trump probably isn't aware of this and just thinks oil = rich USA USA USA
 
Returning Venezuela’s crude production to 3m barrels of oil a day would require 16 years of work and investment totalling $185bn (£137bn)
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When we have a 3m barrel surplus today, and oil demand is decreasing, this seems like a terrible bet
 
I'll be furious if Trump has another 16 weeks, let alone years. He only cares about how he looks in the moment and nothing else. He's a disgusting creature.
 
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