The USA: The Trump Years 2.0

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RJN said:
I can’t even begin to guess what would happen if we tried to invade Greenland. Surely the US would win in a war, but would that end NATO?
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the way it's going NATO as we know it now won't exist in a year's time
 
I can’t imagine it would lead to all out war between Europe and the US, but at the very least there’d be crippling trade sanctions between the US and the EU?
 
Sounds like a bad situation for everyone, but I guess that is the story of Trump
 
Only Congress can authorize sustained military action like an "invasion" and even WITH the current Congress, that's very unlikely. And unlike the courts, Congress can actually shut it down if he tries it.

The sneakiest thing he could try is deploy troops nearby and attempt some kind of coercive diplomacy.
 
Surely crashing the US economy would crash European economies as well? Or no?
 
ZenGiraffe said:
It's not like Europe has many options and it is one of the only levers they have that could influence US decision making.
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That is true, but is it worth it it? I wish I had some sort of geopolitical expert to ask, because I just don’t understand much about this
 
RJN said:
That is true, but is it worth it it? I wish I had some sort of geopolitical expert to ask, because I just don’t understand much about this
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Maybe we’re just not asking Soldi the right questions
 
The European Central Bank could push to internationalise the Euro as a rival global reserve currency to the US dollar.

I think EU countries are also some of the largest owners of US treasury securities/bonds alongside China, Japan and UK. When Trump introduced tariffs last year, there was an initial sell-off driven by China (in retaliation), and Japan. A large sell-off has potential to drive up the US government's borrowing costs when the US debt ceiling is already unsustainable, and weaken the currency. Then there's the likely negative impact on the stock market, which could see Americans watch their pensions decrease in value.

I mean it would probably hurt Europe's economy somewhat, but it would probably hurt RJN more, who'll end up old and penniless.
 
RJN said:
That is true, but is it worth it it? I wish I had some sort of geopolitical expert to ask, because I just don’t understand much about this
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Is it worth it?

Yes I think the EU will take whatever action it can to protect the territory of its members whether it hurts Europe’s economy or not.
 
Lucille said:
Is it worth it?

Yes I think the EU will take whatever action it can to protect the territory of its members whether it hurts Europe’s economy or not.
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I would like to think this is true, but the EU is also notoriously slow at taking decisive action of any kind on anything. Trump can change the game in an hour and the EU needs five business days to put out a statement.
 
this reminds me of that twitter account "is EU concerned?" that highlights every expression of concern from an EU member state

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If this was the traitors Trump would be Fiona and China is Rachel. Trump’s playing a high risk game hoping his friend’s will stick by him and follow his lead, but ultimately he’s going to take himself out of the competition in a spectacular fashion and long-term his former allies will side with Rachel/China
 
Of course Rachel/China can’t be trusted either but it’s still a much safer bet than agent of chaos Fiona!
 
win_the_game said:
The European Central Bank could push to internationalise the Euro as a rival global reserve currency to the US dollar.

I think EU countries are also some of the largest owners of US treasury securities/bonds alongside China, Japan and UK. When Trump introduced tariffs last year, there was an initial sell-off driven by China (in retaliation), and Japan. A large sell-off has potential to drive up the US government's borrowing costs when the US debt ceiling is already unsustainable, and weaken the currency. Then there's the likely negative impact on the stock market, which could see Americans watch their pensions decrease in value.

I mean it would probably hurt Europe's economy somewhat, but it would probably hurt RJN more, who'll end up old and penniless.
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Which would create even more pressure internally on Trump, pull the lever. I can eat instant ramen for a bit
 
to do anything that would hurt the EU economy would also be a gift to every populist or hard right party in Europe. is it worth it? "we suffer a bit for the greater good" won't really wash in these times.
 
A bunch of European states, including the UK and Denmark, have made their national security dependent on humping America's star-spangled trouser leg for a very long time, so I don't think Europe would ever fight back, even if cornered.

At the same time the messaging from the White House and the American right for the last few years has increasingly been that EUROPE HAS FALLEN, FREE SPEECH IS UNDER SIEGE, and LONDON IS UNDER SHARIA LAW, which does rather hint that we probably shouldn't take the White House's threats as bluster.
 
I believe the French do in fact care much more strongly about having their 55 national holidays a year than about the security of Greenland
 
I think without the UK the EU would be much more likely to respond, it isn't quite so reliant on the US as the UK is, especially with France.

They only need to do enough damage to get Trump to stop/be impeached, and I don't think Greenland is going to cause a US Rally Around the Flag in any way.
 
win_the_game said:
I mean it would probably hurt Europe's economy somewhat, but it would probably hurt RJN more, who'll end up old and penniless.
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:D

I’m so glad I’ll have Europe to blame for my inevitable poor financial planning
 
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