The War in Ukraine

Putin wants nothing more than for us to go to war with Russia, it's the only way he can save himself really. He's baiting the West into an attack. If the US or any other NATO country were to bite, he could use the conflict to rally his people and threaten conventional and nuclear attacks against NATO. This would make him a hero at home, and Ukraine would be yesterday's news.
 
The majority of the stocks that are passing by below on the screen seem to be earning out of this.

Edit: Which doesn't make sense, I googled it and the stock market is suspended for like 4 days now.
 
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ButterTart said:
Russia’s financial reserves are depleting rapidly, they’re not far from the point where they won’t be able to pay their troops. If they take and occupy Ukraine, the sanctions against them will never be lifted and fighting against an entire country will be a constant drain on the economy. The second they reduce their military presence, the Ukrainians will take it back since they’ve got an entire planet’s worth of aid being shipped in. Russia can’t rely on any significant foreign support, since China has distanced itself which I don’t think Putin counted on, and China gains nothing from changing its position now.
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Putin giving the Chinese PM a quick call


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I know it's awful watching helplessly and we'll have a LOT of making up to do to Ukraine for what basically amounts to "thank you for your sacrifice" (which we can hopefully minimise through humanitarian efforts). But I really don't think engaging is the answer when it's just so likely to result in billions dead and the end of human civilisation. It's that awful "trolley problem" dilemma no one wanted to face.

There is of course still a risk that he threatens or uses the nukes when desperate and cornered in terms of sanctions, but if we go to hot war then that escalation just seems so much more likely.

If we get out of the other side of all this alive, we really need to all simultaneously do away with weapons that can destroy humanity, sooner rather than later.

What would be really nice would be if all the Russian troops were to have some kind of wave of conscience go through all of them, an idea spreading like a meme, one of "I'm not going to do this, it isn't right, I'm going to lay down my weapons and refuse to fight". Imagine if this idea spread among them. What's Putin gonna achieve with an army of pacifists?
One can dream...
 
Cloud said:
What would be really nice would be if all the Russian troops were to have some kind of wave of conscience go through all of them
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Wait until Putin can't pay their wages. It'll be amazing how quickly they go from 'we don't want to be here' to 'fuck this, I'm off'. Morale is reportedly in the gutter as it is among the invasion force, fighting a war for literally nothing will be the tipping point.
 
ButterTart said:
Wait until Putin can't pay their wages. It'll be amazing how quickly they go from 'we don't want to be here' to 'fuck this, I'm off'. Morale is reportedly in the gutter as it is among the invasion force, fighting a war for literally nothing will be the tipping point.
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Nobody needs wages when they're on the battlefield. I don't think that's going to be an issue.

Afterwards, sure. But it'll be done by then.
 
Indie said:
Nobody needs wages when they're on the battlefield. I don't think that's going to be an issue.

Afterwards, sure. But it'll be done by then.
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I don't believe there's the conviction (or even the basic training) there for them to overlook it, if I'm honest. A lot of these men aren't soldiers, they don't believe in what they're doing and without incentive, what reason do they have to continue?
 
ButterTart said:
Wait until Putin can't pay their wages. It'll be amazing how quickly they go from 'we don't want to be here' to 'fuck this, I'm off'. Morale is reportedly in the gutter as it is among the invasion force, fighting a war for literally nothing will be the tipping point.
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Judging by the captured soldiers' ages and statements of having no idea what's going on, I think they were just ordinary youngsters on their mandatory military duty.
The ones that were queuing up in that 40km long queue could be real army with a wage though.
 
Queen of the Bay said:
Judging by the captured soldiers' ages and statements of having no idea what's going on, I think they were just ordinary youngsters on their mandatory military duty.
The ones that were queuing up in that 40km long queue could be real army with a wage though.
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It's more the reports of Russia's dwindling reserves I'm thinking about. They're facing a financial crisis that will only deepen the longer this goes on, so they either fund the military and let the country rot or stop paying wages for their pointless invasion force.
 
ButterTart said:
I don't believe there's the conviction (or even the basic training) there for them to overlook it, if I'm honest. A lot of these men aren't soldiers, they don't believe in what they're doing and without incentive, what reason do they have to continue?
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Jail, it's punishable not to serve, it's just mandatory and not doing so could lead to imprisonment.
 
ButterTart said:
I don't believe there's the conviction (or even the basic training) there for them to overlook it, if I'm honest. A lot of these men aren't soldiers, they don't believe in what they're doing and without incentive, what reason do they have to continue?
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The risk of a 7 year jail sentence for desertion back in Russia.
 
Queen of the Bay said:
Judging by the captured soldiers' ages and statements of having no idea what's going on, I think they were just ordinary youngsters on their mandatory military duty.
The ones that were queuing up in that 40km long queue could be real army with a wage though.
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I’ve watched some of the interviews with captured Russian soldiers and they were clearly lied to. I mean they might just be saying that because they’re being interviewed by Ukrainians but my liedar is quite good and I think they’re definitely NOT lying

NICE GOVERNMENT THEY HAVE OVER THERE :)
 
The culture of dedovshchina is also pretty powerful I think. It's one of the main reasons for low morale in the Russian military but keeps many conscripts in their place through risk/fear of reprisal.

The Russian military is notorious for bullying, physical and psychological abuse of young soldiers.
 
Queen of the Bay said:
Jail, it's punishable not to serve, it's just mandatory and not doing so could lead to imprisonment.
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win_the_game said:
The risk of a 7 year jail sentence for desertion back in Russia.
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Indie said:
Who needs a reason when you have generations of people doing what they're told by a dictator under threat of imprisonment.
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Does desertion carry the risk of jail or not? Why can nobody give a straight answer around here?
 
EDIT. Double post there. Was getting my nails did :disco:

PUT IT TOWARDS YOUR BOOB OP FUND SVETS. YOU’LL BE LOBODA ONE DAY :disco:
 
ButterTart said:
I don't know if this is verified but it's what I read. I mean, you couldn't even take the family for two courses at the Harvester on that.
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I saw that as well. Except it’s in roubles, so it’ll be less than £80 by tomorrow.
 
Queen of the Bay said:
How do you know this stuff?
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I remember it started to receive international attention around the end of the Chechen wars, which was when I first heard about it.

This article from the The Atlantic is a bit old but a good example of what a conscripts life is apparently like. I doubt much has changed since 2006. A quick look at Wikipedia suggest there were 51,000 human rights violations and nearly 10,000 sexual assaults in 2019. And those figures are from the Russian military prosecution office.

A Russian Soldier’s Story

Two years in the life of Kiril Bobrov—a parable of the once-proud, now-rotting Russian army
www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com
 
Indie said:
Sure, but how is a Russian Solider, currently in battle, who has had their phone confiscated supposed even know that?
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Soldiers get breaks from active service even during war, don't they?

Anyway, at the point they can't pay soldiers effectively anymore, mutiny probably wouldn't be far off. Reckon it'd probably take at least a year or two to get to that point though.
 
win_the_game said:
I remember it started to receive international attention around the end of the Chechen wars, which was when I first heard about it.

This article from the The Atlantic is a bit old but a good example of what a conscripts life is apparently like. I doubt much has changed since 2006. A quick look at Wikipedia suggest there were 51,000 human rights violations and nearly 10,000 sexual assaults in 2019. And those figures are from the Russian military prosecution office.

A Russian Soldier’s Story

Two years in the life of Kiril Bobrov—a parable of the once-proud, now-rotting Russian army
www.theatlantic.com www.theatlantic.com
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This brought back memories of my own service, not the cruelty bits but everything else.
 
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