UK General Election 2024 - July 4th

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How are you likely to vote?

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I do suspect there's a desire to make Labour and their supporters lazy. Make it look as if it's more 'in the bag' than it really is. Whilst this won't lead to a Tory win, it'll lead to less of a landslide and a stronger base from which to rebuild themselves.
 
The methodology is shonky. It has Labour winning bizarre seats like Hazel Grove.

www.bestforbritain.org

MRP Polling: Spring 2024 - Best for Britain

The first major seat-level MRP poll under new constituency boundaries suggests Labour are set for a 140+ seat majority with 470 seats.
www.bestforbritain.org www.bestforbritain.org
 
I just wish they'd call the fucking thing. Come on, it's not too late, go for June 20th, give us a summer.
 
GNL said:
We are not having an election on my birthday TYVM.
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Look, it's perfect! Go out on the lash, look for the exit poll at 10pm and if it's looking good, stay out for a bit and get home about 1-2am, in time for Tories to start falling like skittles. If it's not looking good, stay out and commiserate while you wonder how you'll explain Britain's last ever general election to the next generation.
 
Reform UK leader Richard Tice defending the quality of his candidates. A lot to unpack here, but ”What is wrong with earning money legally as fortune teller?” absolutely cracked me up. :D

 
Enjoying how MRP models are just completely contradictory over Scotland.

Where is SIR JOHN CURTICE when you need him?
 
Madíson said:
Another MRP poll. This one feels a bit less crazy:

yougov.co.uk

YouGov MRP – Labour now projected to win over 400 seats

Our latest UK general election 2024 MRP projects a 154 seat majority for Labour
yougov.co.uk yougov.co.uk
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The difference is in the way YouGov reallocate ‘Don’t Knows’, they assume a larger percentage will revert to previous voting behaviour, which helps the Tories. They also assume a larger percentage of tactical voting, which helps the Lib Dems. Essentially they’re anticipating changes in voting behaviour before polling day, and Survation are not.

Honestly there are a lot of variables, the Reform vote may be crucial or not at all, for example. A sub-100 seat wipeout seems unlikely due to what we’ve seen of the Conservative Party in the past, but the raw data suggests it is an entirely plausible, even a LIKELY, outcome.
 
I think it’s a lot of wishful thinking too, but has a major party ever given the public FEWER reasons to vote for them, before this?

No hope, no vision, no leadership. The things they’re campaigning on are all things they’ve already manifestly failed to deliver on.

It really is going to be a test of how many Tory till I die folks there are left on this rotted island.
 
GinAg (39) said:
The Yougov polls are WILD

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Gulp.

The economy is (albeit marginally) turning a corner. Many economic indicators are looking positive (particularly compared to much of the rest of Europe). Any recovery is going to come far too late for Rishi though.

I only recently learned that despite that 15% poll rating, Reform is only standing in 20% of council seats for May. That’s weird when Greens and LDs are at 60% and the two main parties at 90%. Suspect they’ll be able to get a decent slate of candidates in the GE though.
 
Given the quality of their candidate MPs so far (racist, professional fortune teller, DEAD) I can only imagine the a slate of absolute freaks and reprobates that must be packing their local council ballots :D
 
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Flyde’s been a safe Conservative seat forever so it’ll be interesting to see where it goes.
 
Funky said:
Call me cynical but I firmly believe that if Rishi was replaced by a white leader before the election, Tory polling would go back up to about 30%.
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I'm not sure about that.

I mean, I'm sure some of their target voters hold some deeply unpleasant racist views, but surely most of those will have defected to Reform anyway.

There are also the optics....a FOURTH leader(3rd unelected in one term) just looks terrible, and piss off an already fed up and angry voter base


I think the biggest worry going into the next GE is some type of pact between CON and Reform.
Would it be enough to prevent a Labour win? No, I don't think so, but it may be enough to really limit them and take the wind out of their sails, making it much easier to come back again in 5 years(and be much more extreme than they already are).
 
I can't quite believe they aren't even trying to get rid of him, to at least try and have a better starting position for the election after the next one. At this rate it's going to be a bloodbath- HOORAY!

I guess no one wants to step up.
 
Sheena said:
I can't quite believe they aren't even trying to get rid of him, to at least try and have a better starting position for the election after the next one. At this rate it's going to be a bloodbath- HOORAY!

I guess no one wants to step up.
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I suspect because they can't agree on someone who could actually do better/limit the damage.

Maybe Mordaunt?? But there's no way the far right of the party are going to go for that.

That leaves you with crazies(Patel, Braveman, Badenoch) and I suspect even quite a few in the Tory party know that going in that direction would most likely result in an even WORSE result.

Basically, they're stuck with him until after the GE
 
bypass said:
I suspect because they can't agree on someone who could actually do better/limit the damage.

Maybe Mordaunt?? But there's no way the far right of the party are going to go for that.

That leaves you with crazies(Patel, Braveman, Badenoch) and I suspect even quite a few in the Tory party know that going in that direction would most likely result in an even WORSE result.

Basically, they're stuck with him until after the GE
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Mordaunt is surely the only one right now and her seat is far from safe...
 
If it's going to happen before the next General, it'll be after the local elections in two weeks, which are surely going to be absolutely brutal.
 
The European Research Group are the worst of the Tory Party and that's one hell of a "Worst". They speared Mordaunt and the result was a miniature supply teacher who the actual party members rejected in favour of a lump of plasticine injected with some of Thatcher's DNA. They can't ditch Sunak now - no-one would take the job.

There are rumours this morning that they're going to take the council elections on the chin and go to the polls at the end of June to coincide with both the end of college/uni term and Glastonbury in the hope that this has a sufficient impact on Labour's vote to make a difference in marginals.
 
Funky said:
Call me cynical but I firmly believe that if Rishi was replaced by a white leader before the election, Tory polling would go back up to about 30%.
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Too late - I think if Mordaunt had been elected instead of him, you'd be right but not at this stage. No-one will touch the job right now.
 
octophone said:
The European Research Group are the worst of the Tory Party and that's one hell of a "Worst". They speared Mordaunt and the result was a miniature supply teacher who the actual party members rejected in favour of a lump of plasticine injected with some of Thatcher's DNA. They can't ditch Sunak now - no-one would take the job.

There are rumours this morning that they're going to take the council elections on the chin and go to the polls at the end of June to coincide with both the end of college/uni term and Glastonbury in the hope that this has a sufficient impact on Labour's vote to make a difference in marginals.
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I think they underestimate how much people want them gone.
 
Of the credible (:eyes:) options they have left, Penny Mordaunt strikes me as their best chance of clawing anything back. Not enough to change the overall result, though. So, in that regard, I'd quite happily watch them swap her in now to crash and burn in a GE. If they had any common sense (again :eyes:) it wouldn't even cross their mind (and certainly not hers) to do that, though.
 
Funky said:
Call me cynical but I firmly believe that if Rishi was replaced by a white leader before the election, Tory polling would go back up to about 30%.
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There’s very little evidence to back that up. He was wildly popular when an (allegedly) competent Chancellor. He just happens to be in the seat when the party had already entered its death spiral.
 
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I've always felt that Truss won because she was the white candidate. Her Thatcher cosplay was very deliberate but I think she wouldn't have won against, for example Ben Wallace, a bland oaf of a man but he can string a sentence together.
 
octophone said:
I've always felt that Truss won because she was the white candidate. Her Thatcher cosplay was very deliberate but I think she wouldn't have won against, for example Ben Wallace, a bland oaf of a man but he can string a sentence together.
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Oh in terms of the party members(who voted in Truss), race absolutely was a factor
 
STILL 89 TOO MANY

(I kinda want Suella to stay in just for the LOLs)
 
GinAg (39) said:
Hoping and praying Rees Mogg loses his seat. That's the jackpot, that's the Portillo moment, that's the money shot.
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