UK General Election 2024 - Results Day

VoR said:
They keep asking Steve Baker if he's going to run for leader of the Conservatives - can he do that if he loses his seat?
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Maybe he’ll stand in the Richmond by-election.
 
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ZenGiraffe said:
View attachment 27922
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Reminds me of this child's drawing from better times:

EvkUK7BWgAMaJOY
 
I want numbers, although the way this prosecco is slipping down, I may end up on C4
 
Always a good time to quote my favourite post about Krishnan.

HerSereneHighnessAnniFrid said:
Absolutely love Krishnan. I imagine he’s really hairy and has great tits. He’s very funny when mansplaining, would offer you a bump when the kids are in bed, obviously prefers LOL gay/femme activities like failing at Bake Off AND helps refugees out of the sea mid-news report :disco:
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Someone explain this to me. The clever poll man at the BBC is saying that to look deeper at the results, the landslide isn't necessarily because Labour have taken the Tory vote, but because Reform has, and Labour have benefited from it.

Which does make sense in isolation, but Labour were polling HIGHER 2 months ago pre-Farage when Reform were barely scratching the surface. So how can that be true?

Surely they're downplaying Labour's impact here. They haven't ACCIDENTALLY taken power.
 
funky said:
Someone explain this to me. The clever poll man at the BBC is saying that to look deeper at the results, the landslide isn't necessarily because Labour have taken the Tory vote, but because Reform has, and Labour have benefited from it.

Which does make sense in isolation, but Labour were polling HIGHER 2 months ago pre-Farage when Reform were barely scratching the surface. So how can that be true?

Surely they're downplaying Labour's impact here. They haven't ACCIDENTALLY taken power.
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Maths, dear Funky, Maths.
 
I think Reform getting some traction is going to make the tories think they’ve gone “soft”, but actually that makes absolutely no sense because ultimately Labour’s landslide to me suggests the country wants to move further towards the left?
 
funky said:
Someone explain this to me. The clever poll man at the BBC is saying that to look deeper at the results, the landslide isn't necessarily because Labour have taken the Tory vote, but because Reform has, and Labour have benefited from it.

Which does make sense in isolation, but Labour were polling HIGHER 2 months ago pre-Farage when Reform were barely scratching the surface. So how can that be true?

Surely they're downplaying Labour's impact here. They haven't ACCIDENTALLY taken power.
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Essentially, if Labour were going to get 35% of the vote in a safe Tory constituency and the Tories were going to get 45%, but Reform leached away half of that, the Tories would get 22.5%, Reform would get 22.5% and Labour would win the seat whilst getting the same number of votes that they would have pre-Reform.
 
I really hope after tonight I can finally start to let go of the fact that Suella Braverman exists
 
untilted said:
I think Reform getting some traction is going to make the tories think they’ve gone “soft”, but actually that makes absolutely no sense because ultimately Labour’s landslide to me suggests the country wants to move further towards the left?
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Or have they convinced the public to vote for them precisely because they have shifted right?
 
funky said:
Don't be so fucking patronising. That doesn't answer the clear point I made.
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I mean, I didn't mean to be patronising, it literally is just maths. The more the vote is split the lower the percentage you need to win a seat. As mentioned, Labour are on course to split the difference between the 2017 and 2019 vote shares, but the geography of those votes and the Tories losing a chunk of their vote share means FPTP gives you insane majorities
 
lolly said:
Or have they convinced the public to vote for them precisely because they have shifted right?
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Perhaps…

I know not everybody enjoys openly discussing politics but I’ve noticed some colleagues shifting away from the topic entirely this week and I couldn’t help but immediately think “oh god, you’re voting for reform aren’t you?”
 
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