UK General Election 2024 - Results Day

Sky gives Labour 46% chance of taking Lee Anderson’s Ashfield, and ‘Other’ 44%. I think the Other might be the Ashfield Independents and not Reform UK.
 
ZenGiraffe said:
I mean, I didn't mean to be patronising, it literally is just maths. The more the vote is split the lower the percentage you need to win a seat. As mentioned, Labour are on course to split the difference between the 2017 and 2019 vote shares, but the geography of those votes and the Tories losing a chunk of their vote share means FPTP gives you insane majorities
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Thanks. But isn't the point that the polls were predicting the same massive majority before Reform ate into the %s? I guess I understand the geographical point, as it probably depends on the seat as to who Reform are taking the share from... which isn't as clear in early polling
 
funky said:
Someone explain this to me. The clever poll man at the BBC is saying that to look deeper at the results, the landslide isn't necessarily because Labour have taken the Tory vote, but because Reform has, and Labour have benefited from it.

Which does make sense in isolation, but Labour were polling HIGHER 2 months ago pre-Farage when Reform were barely scratching the surface. So how can that be true?

Surely they're downplaying Labour's impact here. They haven't ACCIDENTALLY taken power.
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As I understand it, traditionally for Labour to win a majority they've needed a much larger vote share and swing than the Tories would ever need. The collapse of the Tory vote to Reform has helped negate that somewhat, putting loads of Tory seats into play. The circumstances in this election have hugely benefited Labour.

I don't think many in Labour would have expected after 2019 that they'd be in this position. Initially a lot of the talk post-2019 was to aim for some progress in this election and win in 2029 or beyond.
 
Having a cup of tea to pace myself
Still no seats declared
Will be back on the bevvies in a minute
 
funky said:
Thanks. But isn't the point that the polls were predicting the same massive majority before Reform ate into the %s? I guess I understand the geographical point, as it probably depends on the seat as to who Reform are taking the share from... which isn't as clear in early polling
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The exit poll is on the more conservative friendly side of things. Without reform you'd probably have seen Tories up another 30 or 40 seats
 
jesus Laura K was SO rude to Daisy Lib Dem then :D contempt not even barely veiled!!!
 
Also while FTPT has been a problem in the past I still support it in this country because it prevents extreme parties turning share into seats. I think FPTP only really impacts the transition from share into seats, and doesn't impact the overall winner, so I think it's a sacrifice worth making.
 
funky said:
Also while FTPT has been a problem in the past I still support it in this country because it prevents extreme parties turning share into seats. I think FPTP only really impacts the transition from share into seats, and doesn't impact the overall winner, so I think it's a sacrifice worth making.
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:nononono:
 
Why do reform have so many plants on channel 4? Yeah I didn’t vote Labour and chose reform because Labour were gonna tax old people and working people (which were lies from the tories lol)
 
Wes Streeting looks like a vat of mechanically reclaimed ham made a wish to be a real boy.
 
Ill Advised said:
Why do reform have so many plants on channel 4? Yeah I didn’t vote Labour and chose reform because Labour were gonna tax old people and working people (which were lies from the tories lol)
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I just thought this, when did c4 turn so RIGHT WING
 
Moopy has helpfully distracted me from Wes Streeting being on my screen.

Thank you moopy.
 
Exit Poll vs (Reality) 2019

Conservatives: 368 (365)
Labour: 191 (202)
Liberal Democrats: 13 (11)
SNP: 55 (48)

Exit Poll vs Reality 2017

Conservatives: 314 (317)
Labour: 266 (262)
Liberal Democrats: 14 (12)
SNP: 34 (35)

Exit Poll vs Reality 2015

Conservatives: 316 (330)
Labour: 239 (232)
Liberal Democrats: 14 (57)
SNP: 10 (8)
 
ZenGiraffe said:
:nononono:
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Speaking of Emily, where is our great lady tonight? I want election high camp and memes.


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funky said:
Do you disagree with the point or disagree with the ethics of it?
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PR is a good thing even if reform gets seats. One, frankly they deserve them if they get the votes. Two, they would be balanced by the left wing parties getting more seats too. Three, it makes compromise more transparent as it would happen between parties rather than within then (which is what have us Brexit, since the Tories had to settle an internal argument rather than being formed of two separate parties)
 
ZenGiraffe said:
PR is a good thing even if reform gets seats. One, frankly they deserve them if they get the votes. Two, they would be balanced by the left wing parties getting more seats too. Three, it makes compromise more transparent as it would happen between parties rather than within then (which is what have us Brexit, since the Tories had to settle an internal argument rather than being formed of two separate parties)
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Fair enough.
 
Kate said:
Reform have a spokesperson with the surname HABIB? SEND HIM BACK!
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It’s ok, he runs a commercial property investment and fund management company, which I think means he’s a slum landlord. Very much their sort of people.
 
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