US Election Week Results 2020

Make your final predictions...

  • I predict Trump will win comfortably

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I predict Trump will win narrowly

    Votes: 10 25.0%

  • I predict a tie

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I predict Biden will win narrowly

    Votes: 16 40.0%

  • I predict Biden will win comfortably

    Votes: 11 27.5%

  • ---

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I predict the Democrats will win the Senate

    Votes: 22 55.0%

  • I predict the Republicans will win the Senate

    Votes: 8 20.0%

  • ---

    Votes: 1 2.5%

  • I predict the Democrats will win the House

    Votes: 26 65.0%

  • I predict the Republicans will win the house

    Votes: 1 2.5%

  • ---

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I predict Florida will go to Trump

    Votes: 19 47.5%

  • I predict Florida will go to Biden

    Votes: 10 25.0%

  • ---

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I predict Texas will go to Trump

    Votes: 26 65.0%

  • I predict Texas will go to Biden

    Votes: 3 7.5%

  • ---

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • I predict Donald Trump will concede on election night

    Votes: 2 5.0%

  • I predict Donald Trump will declare victory on election night

    Votes: 22 55.0%

  • ---

    Votes: 1 2.5%

  • I predict Donald Trump will steal the election via the Supreme Court

    Votes: 2 5.0%

  • I predict a riot

    Votes: 25 62.5%
  • Total voters
    40
I'll be switching between BBC and CNN (inbetween topping up on copious amounts of vodka to calm the old nerves).
 
I just want somewhere like Florida or Michigan + Wisconsin to be called for Biden relatively early on so I can calm down somewhat.
 
Who knows when this is likely to start properly, as in when they can start speculating about results?

I’m not tuning in at 10pm just for three hours of explaining the electoral map
 
Jark said:
I think it is widely considered that in States with significant early voting a majority of on-the-day voters (65%+) will be Republican. outlets like NYT have been reporting that as fact anyway and pollsters have consistently found significantly more on-the-day voter intention for Republicans.
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The theory makes sense, I just don't think we can really predict it given the novelty of the situation. And as @dmlaw pointed out, most Florida voters are old AF, tend to be republican leaning and early voting regardless. If we get similar data on other swing states' early mail in votes, then I will be more concerned.
 
funky said:
Who knows when this is likely to start properly, as in when they can start speculating about results?

I’m not tuning in at 10pm just for three hours of explaining the electoral map
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I'd say the results show won't really heat up until 1 am UK time. That is when many of the swing states in the East will start calculating. There might be some hot exit poll action in the few hours leading up to it, but nothing really concrete until 1 am/8pm EST
 
Oh I want some exit poll juice for sure

but I can reply on moopy for that :)
 
The doom-saying started around midnight, the first results trickled in around 1am and by 3am I rolled into bed hoping to wake up to a miracle.

AND FOUR YEARS LATER, THIS IS WHERE WE ARE. :(
 
I think MOST of the polls close at 7 in Florida with them all closing by 8, so we could have a SNEAK PEEK at certain swing state results early here, plus Georgia closes at 7 as well.
 
And also the Senate/House races are worth following. We’ll want the Dems winning them if Biden has a chance of passing any legislation (should he win).
 
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I like going to sleep too much to stay up. That first Twitter check at whatever a.m. should be interesting
 
I was thinking of having an early night aiming to wake up at 3am or something, but if the result is not good I will just be in a foul mood and stupidly tired all of tomorrow.
 
Jark said:


not the best news for Biden considering a big chunk of today's voters will be Republican
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Official party registration is not a perfect guide to voter intention (there are plenty of states in the South where most voters are registered as Democrats, for example, where the Democrats haven't won in ages. ditto, there'll be plenty of registered Republicans that haven't changed their registration but which have crossed the aisle in the last few years). But even that aside, it literally says in the tweet that there are 2 million votes *in addition* to those that aren't party registered that could be going en masse either way. Stop getting panicky over bits of information and saying they probably mean bad news when they really aren't solid indicators either way.
 
stop telling me what to think when you are not an expert anymore than I am
 
Penelope said:
Official party registration is not a perfect guide to voter intention (there are plenty of states in the South where most voters are registered as Democrats, for example, where the Democrats haven't won in ages. ditto, there'll be plenty of registered Republicans that haven't changed their registration but which have crossed the aisle in the last few years). But even that aside, it literally says in the tweet that there are 2 million votes *in addition* to those that aren't party registered that could be going en masse either way. Stop getting panicky over bits of information and saying they probably mean bad news when they really aren't solid indicators either way.
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given the absurd landslide you have predicted/manifested for Biden I'm not sure your amusing fanfic has any grounding in reality so don't mind if I keep on doing me
 
I hope I'm wrong dear. But I'm far more concerned that you are wrong.

THE NIGHT WILL TELL.
 
Jark said:
I hope I'm wrong dear. But I'm far more concerned that you are wrong.

THE NIGHT WILL TELL.
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I may be, but my exact point is that it won't be because of those indicators. THERE ARE LITERALLY 2 MILLION VOTES NOT LABELED EITHER WAY IN YOUR POST EVEN IF THE LABELS WERE 100% ACCURATE.
 
Penelope said:
I may be, but my exact point is that it won't be because of those indicators. THERE ARE LITERALLY 2 MILLION VOTES NOT LABELED EITHER WAY IN YOUR POST EVEN IF THE LABELS WERE 100% ACCURATE.
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You sound very pent up for somebody so sure of a positive outcome tonight. Pop a valium sweetie.

I understand that, however even if those 2m votes go 80% Dem (highly unlikely) that would leave a deficit of 1.7m votes that the Republicans can easily expect to make up at the polls today if all the widely considered data on the Dem/Rep early voting/voting day splits is taken into account. In a state like Florida a majority of Democratic voters will have come out already while Republicans are considerably more likely to vote on the day.
 
I think increased turnout is better for Biden and democrats than Trump. Most non-voters would if forced probably be left leaning, or at the very least anti-trump, which is why Republicans try and supress the vote so much. And so far turnout looks like it's going to be at a twenty year high so I'm choosing optimism at this point in time
 
Is there any good website that will show the votes per each little county as they come in? I want proper maps and stats to get paranoid to (but also very pleased because only assholes hate maps).
 
ZenGiraffe said:
I think increased turnout is better for Biden and democrats than Trump. Most non-voters would if forced probably be left leaning, or at the very least anti-trump, which is why Republicans try and supress the vote so much. And so far turnout looks like it's going to be at a twenty year high so I'm choosing optimism at this point in time
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I’m clinging on to stats like this one rather than false hope of Biden taking OKLAHOMA à la Poison Pen.
 
Jark said:
I understand that, however even if those 2m votes go 80% Dem (highly unlikely) that would leave a deficit of 1.7m votes that the Republicans can easily expect to make up at the polls today if all the widely considered data on the Dem/Rep early voting/voting day splits is taken into account. In a state like Florida a majority of Democratic voters will have come out already while Republicans are considerably more likely to vote on the day.
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Yes. Which is where the part about voter registration not being a perfect prologue for voting intention becomes relevant!

Jark said:
You sound very pent up for somebody so sure of a positive outcome tonight. Pop a valium sweetie.
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I'm entirely relaxed. I'll leave the pills for you to ward off a heart attack over some stray bit of trivia you've half-understood.
 
I really need to keep myself busy with something else until then. Usually I call my trusty bottoms :(
 
I’ll probably spend the next three hours deciding what to order for tea
 
Penelope said:
I'll be taking a beauty nap now and resurfacing, pint glass of half and half gin and bitter lemon idly cradled in hand, at 11. Bye girls! :tongueout:
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what’s different about this than any other night for you hun? :eyes:
 
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