US Election Week Results 2020

[Penelope]

Poor @Penelope has had to staple his eyelids to his forehead in an effort to watch to the very end.

Don't be silly darling. Obviously I'm on meth

 

[ButterTart]

The 300,000 votes are from all over the country. As each state has different rules for when votes must be received, it's likely many will be rejected.

I thought it was just in Georgia?

 

[Penelope]

A polling error? Girl. The margins by which Trump has won each state, and the slim margins Biden will take the swing states by, demonstrate a clear pattern of either massively underestimating Republican turnout or decided voters deceiving pollsters about their intentions. Literally everywhere. Of course that has happened, just as it was always going to.

Yes Jark. Thank you for your glittering insight into what the massive polling industry post mortem after this is going to find based on reading the internet for two weeks. I can tell Nate Silver is just waiting by the phone with bated breath to hear your expertise.

 

[Penelope]

FYI - a pollster underestimating Republican turnout is not a "shy Republican" phenomenon. It's a pollster underestimating how many Republicans are likely to turn out, not voters hiding from pollsters that they're going to vote Republican.

 

[Nancy]

TO BE HONEST, I FORGOT THIS WAS HAPPENING

 

[Jark]

Yes Jark. Thank you for your glittering insight into what the massive polling industry post mortem after this is going to find based on reading the internet for two weeks. I can tell Nate Silver is just waiting by the phone with bated breath to hear your expertise.

your refusal to admit that your supreme confidence going into yesterday was misguided, or that factors you dismissed (with your own expertise) actually did come into play, is almost endearing.

I do agree with you though - Nate Silver should probably remove himself from his bubble and then get a new job after this is over, or at least admit that he's actually just putting in guesswork as much as any of us at this point.

 

[funky]

The USPS is run by a Trump appointee. It feels like a clear case of voter suppression and there's possibly nothing that can be done about it.

meanwhile elsewhere Donald Trump is calling fraud for people counting legitimate votes in a legitimate process

hypocrisy is too soft a word for him at this point.

 

[AlgoAlex]

TO BE HONEST, I FORGOT THIS WAS HAPPENING

LUCKY YOU

 

[Penelope]

your refusal to admit that your supreme confidence going into yesterday was misguided, or that factors you dismissed (with your own expertise) actually did come into play, is almost endearing.

I do agree with you though - Nate Silver should probably remove himself from his bubble and then get a new job after this is over, or at least admit that he's actually just putting in guesswork as much as any of us at this point.

I admitted it this morning if you cared to read!

I do agree with you though - Nate Silver should probably remove himself from his bubble and then get a new job after this is over, or at least admit that he's actually just putting in guesswork as much as any of us at this point.

If you knew anything about polling beyond whatever info you've half-interpreted in line with your initial gut feeling, you'd know Nate Silver is one of the few people in the industry to have come out of this pretty well based on his projections. But then, I bet you thought he "called it wrong" last time because he "only" gave Donald Trump a 29% chance of winning.

 

[win_the_game]

I thought it was just in Georgia?

Nope - the undelivered ballots are from all over the place - over 7000 in Michigan, 11000 in Pennsylvania.

 

[Penelope]

But also, put it this way - that "guesswork" is the reason most people knew the Biden victory that is happening was likely going into this. What exactly was your prediction Trump would win based on?

 

[ButterTart]

Bit of movement in Georgia, the gap's started to shrink.

 

[SDF]

Huns you realise we are on the same team here, right?

 

[Jark]

If you knew anything about polling beyond whatever info you've half-interpreted in line with your initial gut feeling, you'd know Nate Silver is one of the few people in the industry to have come out of this pretty well based on his projections. But then, I bet you thought he "called it wrong" last time because he "only" gave Donald Trump a 29% chance of winning.

I don't think anyone in the polling industry has come well out of this election or the last one, primarily because they refuse to recognise that their methods no longer work in a time when every four years the factors at play have changed radically and there's not enough previous data to incorporate into their methods.

This is not about gut feeling, it's actually just common sense. Nate Silver (who I actually like btw) says "well we gave Biden a 90% chance of winning - if he doesn't win it's not that we got it wrong, it's that this time was the one time in ten he doesn't win". Putting aside the convenience of that get-out clause for his own reputation, that inability to accurately adjust polling to the social climate that is new and unique to this election cycle renders polling irrelevant as a "political science", which is what 538 does its best to be. It makes pre election polling no more accurate or trustworthy than a snap exit poll. And if polling is only accurate in very broad strokes - if Texas is deemed a toss-up or Trump+1 and ends up Trump+8 - for what reason are people like Silver and the pollsters themselves considered experts? They're just analysing 2020 data through a 2016 lens. It's no good.

 

[Kate]

Trump will be demanding a recount in Wisconsin. Obviously.

 

[AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaAAaaaA]

Trump demanding a recount in Wisconsin, which is probably the hold up in it getting officially announced.

Babe, I'm fairly sure you're not going to find a discrepancy of 20,000+ VOTES!

 

[Kate]

The woman on CNN just said they have to wait 10 days to formally request it though. And they can (and will) do it for anywhere where the margin is <1%.

 

[AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaAAaaaA]

I WISH Arizona would be officially called, it really could be the plot twist that fucks everything up...

 

[Kate]

Some FUSS on Twitter about voters in Arizona being given Sharpies which can apparently mean the ballot is rejected.

 

[RS]

Does Biden still need Michigan and Pennsylvania if he’s already taken Wisconsin and Arizona?

 

[Jark]

he needs Michigan in almost every scenario unless he's gonna win Wisconsin, Penn and 2 of Nevada/Penn/Georgia

 

[AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAaAAaaaA]

Does Biden still need Michigan and Pennsylvania if he’s already taken Wisconsin and Arizona?

He gets to 270 if he wins Michigan, and he's confirmed as winning 1 EC in Nebraska, Nevada tomorrow and Arizona.
It's not completely clear what's going on in Arizona RIGHT NOW, it was called Biden, then it was revealed there has been some voting % fuck up and now it feels like it really was called TOO EARLY.

 

[vespertine]

Does Biden still need Michigan and Pennsylvania if he’s already taken Wisconsin and Arizona?

No, if he gets Nevada and Michigan he wins.

 

[Eddie]

Bloomberg seem to have called Arizona for Biden, but CNN haven't. :emoji_thinking:

Bloomberg called it 8 hours ago!

 

[Dark Carnival]

 

[Jark]

@RaspberrySwirl

Biden has 227 electoral college votes atm (without Arizona). He needs 43 more (270)

Arizona - 11 votes
Georgia - 16 votes
Michigan - 16 votes
Nevada - 6 votes
Pennsylvania - 20 votes
Wisconsin - 10 votes

 

[ButterTart]

He gets to 270 if he wins Michigan, and he's confirmed as winning 1 EC in Nebraska, Nevada tomorrow and Arizona.
It's not completely clear what's going on in Arizona RIGHT NOW, it was called Biden, then it was revealed there has been some voting % fuck up and now it feels like it really was called TOO EARLY.

Officials in Arizona have confirmed votes made with Sharpies will be counted, so it's all good.

 

[Kate]

Bloomberg called it 8 hours ago!

I see that now. I was STILL ASLEEP.

 

[POP!]

Biden’s lead in Michigan appears to be widening a bit with 94% in....

 

[RJN]

@RaspberrySwirl

Biden has 227 electoral college votes atm (without Arizona). He needs 43 more (270)

Arizona - 11 votes
Georgia - 16 votes
Michigan - 16 votes
Nevada - 6 votes
Pennsylvania - 20 votes
Wisconsin - 10 votes

So basically I think it comes down to Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada (which all seem safe), just 1 more.

 

[Suomi]

I thought he already won Michigan and Wisconsin

 

[jivafox]

That piece of shit Susan Collins has been re-elected in Maine

 

[RJN]

He probably has, but they haven't been called yet.

 

[POP!]

Michigan and Wisconsin are going to be counted by end of day but I’m sure that won’t be the end of it unless Biden exceeds the 1% margin.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

The snails pace voting may been nerve racking, but three times bigger topic than 2016

And 50 members and guests viewing STILL!

What a thriller. They've really taken from the Netflix school of cliffhangers for this one.

 

[ZenGiraffe]

I've skimmed the contributions fresh from my nap. just to say @Jark I think you've massively misunderstood how polling works and that yeah, 538 have done a reasonable job in predicting this election, and more widely we are seeing the most talked about scenario that we were likely to see going into this election. None of what happened has been a MASSIVE surprise. There is definitely district level swing weirdness that will need to be investigated, but it's not been enough to really justify throwing out polls and polling.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

I must say, I'm quite agog at how CLOSE it is in so many states. Polarisation is such a bad state of affairs.

 

[Eddie]

The snails pace voting may been nerve racking, but three times bigger topic than 2016

And 50 members and guests viewing STILL!

What a thriller. They've really taken from the Netflix school of cliffhangers for this one.

A cliffhanger that sends you to sleep?

 

[RJN]

Trump's lead in Georgia is 87,000 and there are still 200,000 votes to be counted, almost all from Atlanta. Its a toss up at this point.

 

[AGinAg (37)]

A cliffhanger that sends you to sleep?

We all came back didn't we?