The War in Ukraine

On an economic tip, how long can Putin force the Russian stock exchange to remain closed and what are the ramifications the longer he does it?
 
Kratz said:
I’m no expert, but I agree. I don’t see how it gets any easier for Russia from here on without a massive multiplication of forces - and that may not even be possible. Taking Kyiv may only get harder and suspect it may never be achieved.
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Russia’s financial reserves are depleting rapidly, they’re not far from the point where they won’t be able to pay their troops. If they take and occupy Ukraine, the sanctions against them will never be lifted and fighting against an entire country will be a constant drain on the economy. The second they reduce their military presence, the Ukrainians will take it back since they’ve got an entire planet’s worth of aid being shipped in. Russia can’t rely on any significant foreign support, since China has distanced itself which I don’t think Putin counted on, and China gains nothing from changing its position now.

Basically what I’m trying to say is that this is already unwinnable for Russia under any circumstances.
 
Germany should be ashamed of itself. And should have been for facilitating this for years with their weirdo relationship with Russia.
I know we like to piss on the UK here and I'm not being a flag shagger at all but perspective and all that.
'The West' includes all of us in this scenario.
 
I've never got "Welcome To Chechnya" out of my head since watching it. Horrifying.

The things the LGBTQ community have been through there. And of course Zelim Bakaev's story.

letterboxd.com

Welcome to Chechnya (2020)

This searing investigative work shadows a group of activists risking unimaginable peril to confront the ongoing anti-LGBTQ program raging in the repressive and closed Russian republic. Unfettered access and a remarkable approach to protecting anonymity exposes this under-reported atrocity–and an...
letterboxd.com letterboxd.com
 
The Western alliance must apply pressure on all other non-China governments to close their borders to Russians. They are still flying to Thailand on holiday FFS. India, Israel, ASEAN, etc. need to get with the programme.
 
Rachey said:
I saw a video today of a Russian soldier who surrendered, phoning his mum on a Ukrainians phone and crying. The Ukranian people were giving him tea and a sandwich and comforting him.

I'm not sure how legit it is, but I want it to be real :(
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I saw that too, his mom was shocked he was there, and scared and you could hear her agony and despair and it devastated me. And the contrast of that humane moment and that inhumane announcement last night, made me think how quickly and easy it is to lose principle and morality in a situation of war. It's devastating. But they're having ceasefire talks today, let's hope something good will come out of it.
 
Just an FYI on the footage of Russian Prisoners phoning their parents etc.

That's probably a breach of the Geneva Convention and you may want to consider that before onward sharing it. I had no idea until I saw Owen Jones tweeting about it yesterday.


 
VoR said:
On an economic tip, how long can Putin force the Russian stock exchange to remain closed and what are the ramifications the longer he does it?
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I guess it means that institutions/family offices and some individuals will have money tied up in stock which is illiquid and therefore can't be sold for cash. It also means that Russian companies listed on the exchange can't raise money by issuing shares to institutions or the public, and are therefore likely to need to raise funds by bank debt which costs them interest (and we know the base interest rate is now very high). If they can't afford the interest, they'll either become static as they can't raise funds to undertake big projects, or fold if they aren't able to "keep the lights on". Or take government funding, I guess. Not a problem for cash rich companies, but most companies need to raise money from time to time.

The fear is that as soon as the stock exchange opens, shares will get dumped cheap, driving down share prices and therefore the market capital of listed Russian companies.
 
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PercyPig said:
Possibly a stupid question but there’s a lot of talk about if you restrict money then war becomes too expensive but if you’re a corrupt government like Putin can you not essentially just print as much money as you want to fund that war?
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Yes but it stops being worth anything.
 
Vladimir Putin has accused Ukrainian forces of using civilians as “human shields”.

The Russian leader is speaking live now, where he has described Russian soldiers who are “acting bravely” as “real heroes”.

The “success” of the Russian army in Ukraineare examples of that “heroism”, Putin claims.

He says Ukrainians and Russians are “one people” but that Ukrainians are “threatened and brainwashed”.
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Evil piece of shit
 
Sure Jan GIF
 
I just heard someone buying Cream Crackers speaking Russian in my local Tesco so stabbed it

#makesallthedifference

#doingmybit
 
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