The Israel-Gaza war and wider Middle-East tensions (4 Viewers)

It seems like the world is at the edge of its seat with this 2-week Trump decision. I don't think he'll actually do it in the end. Foreign policy and avoiding "forever wars" is the one thing that's proven capable of fracturing his base because it's such a core part of his promise. And his base is the only thing he's got left.

But regime change in Iran does seem within the realm of possibility now. Within just a couple of years, Iran has been severely weakened and humiliated, both at home and across the ME. If the rest of the West can continue to weaken it with sanctions and undermine the theocracy's rule, then the Iranis (who are already bubbling with revolutionary fervor) may move to finally topple their awful theocracy. A nuclear weapon in the hands of such a barbaric regime would turn Iran into North Korea 2.0 and the region will be become rife with their awful proxies again. And they have the nerve to accuse others of "aggression".
 
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Nothing could be more certain to keep the theocracy in power for the next 20 years plus than a joint US/Israel attack. Which, given that Netanyahu probably likes having this specific enemy around to distract from his own atrocities and they actually look vulnerable for the first time in an age, may be the whole point.
 
Yeah I think if the US gets involved, it will be all the confirmation the regime needs to legitimize itself. It'll embolden their bullshit theocracy and they'll continue to wheel out their usual slogans "Death to Israel" and "Death to America" blah blah blah.

I don't think Israel looks "vulnerable" right now though. They look very capable. They've absolutely mopped the floor with Iran. They've crippled their nuclear program, plucked their top officials, completely decapitated their proxy Hizbullah, and basically bulldozed right through Hamas. That pager attack was particularly crafty. And in return they've lost effectively no lives (unless you count the Oct 7th attack) and some infrastructure because some of their defense systems were overwhelmed. That's been the extent of Israel's vulnerabilities - not accounting for internal vulnerabilities like the political divide in the Knesset.

Cruel, merciless, and unhinged, definitely. But not vulnerable. But in geopolitical warfare, anything is better than weakness or indecisiveness.
 
I meant that the Iranian regime looked vulnerable, not Israel. There’s been genuine growing internal dissent, which they have been too weak to stamp out. I don’t think that Netanyahu wants the ayatollahs to fall because they are too handy as a pariah to shore up Israel’s own support with the US. It wouldn’t surprise me if he wants them to stay in power but too weak to threaten Israel, rather than a new, more progressive Iranian government rehabilitating itself with the west.
 
dmlaw said:
It wouldn’t surprise me if he wants them to stay in power but too weak to threaten Israel,
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Like they have a choice. If there's a regime change and USA doesn't learn from the last time and MIND ITS BUSINESS, it'll be catastrophic to them.
 
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Because of course he couldn't resist it. I wonder what Iraq will do? I wonder what Starmer will do as well apart from cower in a corner while saying that the US and Israel can do whatever they like but no-one else can.
 
Lot's of reports that Iran are or will be sending missiles targeted at American interests in Qatar.
 
They'll probably get some of their proxies to do some of the dirty work. The Houthis are still at full power.
 
Missiles apparently coming to Iraq, Bahrain and Kuwait as well. UAE closing it's airspace.
 
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I heard about this at the Free Palestine demo in Glasgow this evening. I paused for a bit on my way home from work to listen to one of the speakers. As I headed away, they announced the attack in Doha.
 
One of my colleague's mother was stuck in Doha for nearly two days awaiting a connecting flight. Thankfully she got a flight out this morning.
 
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