Coronavirus

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Are you worried about contracting coronavirus?

  • Yes, I am absolutely terrified

    Votes: 12 15.6%

  • Yes, I am slightly concerned

    Votes: 35 45.5%

  • I am neither concerned or unconcerned

    Votes: 7 9.1%

  • No, I am slightly unconcerned

    Votes: 6 7.8%

  • No, I am totally unconcerned

    Votes: 6 7.8%

  • Bring back the old poll

    Votes: 3 3.9%

  • Charlotte Awbrey tits out doing the Macarena

    Votes: 2 2.6%

  • I believe VoR is evil

    Votes: 11 14.3%
  • Total voters
    77
Here's an encouraging stat for all you worriers (like me).

Where I live (Sefton) is one of the 4 under-servaillance areas for being an Indian-variant hotspot. Along with Bolton, Blackburn and somewhere else. Two breakouts linked to schools and some local schools and gyms were closed. Cases doubled last week. This week, they have halved again. Now not saying Sefton is out of the woods, but that would never have happened before now - cases to go DOWN again so quickly. It's likely that not only are people who are diagnosed not spreading it as much, but they're recovering quicker. Even with the variant, the R number can't get high enough to become a factor. If that really is the case, that's the sort of thing that gets us out of this mess in the future.
 
Beer festival in SEPTEMBER cancelled, surprise surprise.
I have said over and over on the Reddit (which I'm now banned from) that nothing will happen this year, always got downvoted to oblivion for being a doomer. It's going to be a long time before any events happen- we need like a year of certainty that it's no longer a threat, then planning time. 2022 at the absolute earliest, more likely 23-24
 
Events cancelling is purely down to their being no viable insurance to protect against cancellation.

If they can’t get covered they can’t proceed to plough on and hope it’s allowed to go ahead, it’s far to big a financial risk so they cancel now.
 
Cloud said:
Beer festival in SEPTEMBER cancelled, surprise surprise.
I have said over and over on the Reddit (which I'm now banned from) that nothing will happen this year, always got downvoted to oblivion for being a doomer. It's going to be a long time before any events happen- we need like a year of certainty that it's no longer a threat, then planning time. 2022 at the absolute earliest, more likely 23-24
Click to expand...

No word on York beer festival in the same month.

The twitter account and Facebook page are offline, so I'm doubting it.
 
The food and drink festival better not be cancelled this year. That's something I missed last year.

Although Chelmsford have started one and they've got Sophie Ellis Bextor :disco:
 
I'm on Day 4 of my self-isolation / quarantine following my arrival from France.

My experience of the Test & Trace experience has been a daily call, at almost exactly the same time, where a call centre drone reads you the instructions that you should have booked a Day Two and Eight test (which is mandatory to fill out the Passenger Locator Form 48h prior to travel - it won't let you complete it otherwise).

The caller has no record of your test results (I got a negative test on Day Two, and my Day Three caller said he had no access to this).

The caller has no idea of whether you are doing Test to Release on Day 5.

There have been no home visits.

Make of that what you will, and then ask yourself why the Indian variant is loose.
 
BBC News:

There is "increasing confidence" that Covid-19 vaccines are effective against all variants, including the Indian one, Boris Johnson has said.

At Prime Minister's Questions, he said fresh data had been reviewed earlier on Wednesday.
 
So I have a minor operation on Monday and have to get tested on Friday (meh) and self isolate along with the parents Fri-Sun (ugh!)

Kind of wondering about getting away without shutting myself indoors all weekend. What bothers me is if I use the NHS app to check in somewhere as requested and they find out somehow and turn me away. I think it's more private than that, but am having doubts!

Just seems pointless when I'm vaccinated (which I know isn't 100%) AND prevalence around here is basically nil.
 
Cloud said:
So I have a minor operation on Monday and have to get tested on Friday (meh) and self isolate along with the parents Fri-Sun (ugh!)

Kind of wondering about getting away without shutting myself indoors all weekend. What bothers me is if I use the NHS app to check in somewhere as requested and they find out somehow and turn me away. I think it's more private than that, but am having doubts!

Just seems pointless when I'm vaccinated (which I know isn't 100%) AND prevalence around here is basically nil.
Click to expand...

It's 3 days right? So yeah...isolate.
 
Glasgow now the only area of Scotland under level 3 restrictions - Moray has been moved to level 2, and East Renfrewshire is remaining in level 2 despite having a higher Covid rate than Glasgow (but fewer cases).
 
Figures about 700 more than last Friday. Definitely starting to shoot up, let's just keep our fingers crossed it doesn't go full batshit to the point of hospitalisation problems (I.e. hope the Indian variant is 30% more transmissible or
less)
 
This is really looking good. The vaccines apparently combat the Indian variant and things getting back to normal have never looked so positive. I have a bit of a hangover today, but thinking of the future has made me feel quite GIDDY.
 
Don't believe the hype.

While it's good the vaccines have some hold over the newer variants, it's not a done deal. AZ is 30% effective against symptomatic Covid after one dose, and 60% after two doses. Pfizer is better, up to 81% after two doses. This shows the new variant has more vaccine escape than the B.117 variant.

The studies suggest that the new variant is also more transmissible by 50-60%. Taken as an average with some vaccine escape, and with all restrictions lifted, we would be looking at a significant new wave in September, with a peak higher than January and an addition 40,000+ deaths.

The June 21st easing needs to be postponed as we get more vaccinated, with potential boosters in September to combat the latest variant.
 
It's also maddening that the gov/PHE leaked the 'good' part of the study to the FT on Friday to get good headlines, then dumped the rest of the study with the more concerning data late on Saturday night. These fuckers are trying to take us for fools.
 
As disappointing as it is I thank the posters like yourself @gggggg and @Cloud @ZenGiraffe for relaying the info on here that the media seem to conveniently miss out on, as I honestly would not have a clue about A LOT of it if it wasn’t for you guys. It is NOT the news that we want to hear, but I would so much rather hear it now than thinking everything is going back to normal then come September...BANG.
 
gggggg said:
Don't believe the hype.

While it's good the vaccines have some hold over the newer variants, it's not a done deal. AZ is 30% effective against symptomatic Covid after one dose, and 60% after two doses. Pfizer is better, up to 81% after two doses. This shows the new variant has more vaccine escape than the B.117 variant.

The studies suggest that the new variant is also more transmissible by 50-60%. Taken as an average with some vaccine escape, and with all restrictions lifted, we would be looking at a significant new wave in September, with a peak higher than January and an addition 40,000+ deaths.

The June 21st easing needs to be postponed as we get more vaccinated, with potential boosters in September to combat the latest variant.
Click to expand...
Don't believe the doom mongering about AZ either.

"Public Health England (PHE) said the difference in effectiveness between the vaccines after two doses might be explained by the fact that rollout of second doses of AstraZeneca was later than for the Pfizer vaccine, which was approved first.

Other data shows it takes longer to reach maximum effectiveness with the AstraZeneca vaccine, PHE said."

source BBC News

We also don't know the increased transmissibility yet. If it was 50%+ I think we'd already know about it, but we should have an indication in the coming week or two.

Lets not panic just yet they're jabbing like crazy and we should be in a better position vaccination wise by then. Probably worst case they have to delay the final date a little bit.
 
Cloud said:
Don't believe the doom mongering about AZ either.

"Public Health England (PHE) said the difference in effectiveness between the vaccines after two doses might be explained by the fact that rollout of second doses of AstraZeneca was later than for the Pfizer vaccine, which was approved first.

Other data shows it takes longer to reach maximum effectiveness with the AstraZeneca vaccine, PHE said."

source BBC News

We also don't know the increased transmissibility yet. If it was 50%+ I think we'd already know about it, but we should have an indication in the coming week or two.

Lets not panic just yet they're jabbing like crazy and we should be in a better position vaccination wise by then. Probably worst case they have to delay the final date a little bit.
Click to expand...

You're right - there's still a lot to be hopeful for.

I just saw some particularly gloomy modelling this morning that set me off a bit!
 
I've seen some pretty negative stuff on Reddit from a particular user who keeps bringing up some modelling from Warwick and doing some pretty gloomy calculations with them (where they just blew past the 60% worst case scenario and are claiming it's 79% more transmissible?!) but... I don't know... the user always seems to post very pessimistic stuff and it's one person putting this out with whatever assumptions they're making.

For at least the sake of my own sanity I'm taking a "wait and see" approach and following my instinct that if it was that severe the total number of infections would've shot up by now. It's clearly very good at out-competing the Kent variant but so far seems to have simply displaced it rather than dwarfing it.
 
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Interestingly, the modelling I saw (based on 55% more transmissibility) saw the peak almost completely squashed when factoring in potential vaccines for teenagers (along with keeping restrictions as they are after 21st June)... I hadn't seen there that wrinkle anywhere else
 
Nobody seems to be talking about the fact that the vast majority of new cases are people who are not vaccinated or asymptomatic vaccinated cases. Which is exactly what you want to a vaccination program to do. If that works it doesn’t really matter how transmittable the variants are. Imagine if you did a transmission study for seasonal flu or norovirus in any December. The numbers would be staggering.

the question should no longer be about positive cases, because they’re not going away, but about hospitalisations and deaths. And - he says with all fingers and toes crossed - that is very very encouraging.

Another thing that they’re not talking about much is the length of infection, which seems to have been severely reduced (which is also great). Putting poor Bolton aside, the other smaller outbreaks have disappeared as quick as they started. As I said earlier, that wouldn’t have happened a few months ago.
 
Yep absolutely right, in fairness to myself I was only referring to the study as released, which obviously only had 21 days of reference - so is limited.

the thing is, where are those three months going to come from? We’re still on track to unlock completely on June 21st and most people won’t get their second dose until well after July. With a potentially highly transmissible variant capable of some vaccine escape in the community - it feels like we need to buy some time, and I can’t see that forthcoming 🤷‍♂️
 
I definitely think they need to delay the unlock date. June is too soon. But Boris and his poll numbers... every move is a PR move for Bojo and it’ll be another case of act now and (don’t) apologise later
 
To be fair life is "close to good enough" at this stage, we can go to pubs and restaurants and socialise in groups of 6 there... or as I've noticed, clusters of 6 who can still interact with each other well enough if there are more of you.

Would love the full release as then pubs won't be in this "half open" state where they shut early, can't have a crowd in and don't run things like quizzes or live music. And events will feel safe to resume rather than even more
Being cancelled. But I'm sure we can wait a little longer and hopefully the businesses will survive it. It's whether Tim Martin will put pressure on the government to minimise the impact on the millions he rakes in, if they do talk about delaying. But things are good enough now that at least it's no longer an isolated Hell where you can only be close to your employer.
 
I wore a mask for 4 hours in total today, which is the longest I will ever wear a mask. And I fucking hated it.

I feel sorry for those who have to do it in their jobs.
 
Yeah I wear one all day and it’s literally NO ISSUE AT ALL. I’m very bemused by people who claim it’s INSUFFERABLE
 
Yeah, I've been wearing one all day for just under a year - you do get used to it pretty quickly.
 
Some of my cloth ones are hard work but those clinical ones they hand out at the hospital (they told me to swap my cloth one out for one)? Quite baggy and very easy to breathe in, could wear all day without issue
 
So today's crazy thing is they have restricted travel in and out of Bolton, Blackburn, Burnley, Bedford, Kirklees, Leicester, Hounslow and North Tyneside. No announcement, no local officials contacted... just popped on the website in the dead of night. Any posters from these areas?

I usually say we get the governments we deserve... but we really don't with this absolute shower of cretins
 
gggggg said:
So today's crazy thing is they have restricted travel in and out of Bolton, Blackburn, Burnley, Bedford, Kirklees, Leicester, Hounslow and North Tyneside. No announcement, no local officials contacted... just popped on the website in the dead of night. Any posters from these areas?

I usually say we get the governments we deserve... but we really don't with this absolute shower of cretins
Click to expand...
I just saw this. It means I can’t go to my mum this weekend as she’s in the borough of Hounslow, despite being in a bubble. Just called her but she had no idea.
 
Hope things are feeling better there.

in Osaka we are in week 5 of the second state of emergency which was supposed to end next week but will likely be extended another 2 or 3 weeks. Feeling quite bleak about it, not because of the numbers, because they have been fairly low throughout this whole thing (Osaka peaked around 1000 cases a day and that was the highest in Japan at that time)

but it just feels endless here. Vaccinations started in February and they’re only on 5% with one dose, it’s really pitifully slow
 
Ag said:
Do you think the Olympics will happen?
Click to expand...
I think they’re happening come hell or high water. Though every single news story about the virus also has a comment on how long until the Olympics, like THAT is the key story, really pissing me off.

and every other story is “such and such group demands Olympics cancellation”. The numbers of cases are small, even at the peak. It’s comparable to the UK now, and most of that is focused on big cities.

it’s more about people’s perception of the virus than the data, especially when they have an axe to grind about the government/Olympics regardless
 
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