The Israel-Gaza war and wider Middle-East tensions

Fucking hell.

This is what Gaza has to contend with. The US President is pissed because he sent some food aid and didn’t get a thank you.




To those who still think he’s funny and camp. No. Just no.
 
Fucking hell they are beyond tone deaf. Who recognises a country based on a THREAT?
 
Fuck Starmer and fuck Labour, stick SpLiTtInG tHe LeFt up your arse.
 
It's pretty distasteful, but - assuming Labour don't move the goalposts between now and September - it's really a bargaining chip in name only. There's no realistic way Israel will agree to the requirements they've set out that would prevent this from happening.

We have now had at least four versions of what these conditions are (in the cabinet readout at 4.48pm, the Starmer statement at 5.37pm, the Downing Street statement, and the David Lammy speech at 5.20pm). In each the wording is slightly different, but there at least four requirements of Israel.

Two of them could conceivably happen before September: Israel taking “substantive steps” to end the appalling situation in Gaza, and agreeing a ceasefire. But it is much harder to imagine the Benjamin Netanyahu government committing to the two-state solution, which it no longer backs, or ruling out annexation of the West Bank, which is the de fact ambition of some of his far-right supporters in the Knesset.
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This does now also make it more likely that other countries follow suit. I’d particularly be looking at Canada and Australia.

Obviously Macron deserves more credit than Starmer for opening the door, but the way Labour have framed it as putting the onus on Israel to make material commitments to end the violence and re-open the discussion of a two-state solution (which they almost certainly won’t do) does give other hesitant governments a bit more cover.
 
I do admire Starmer’s diplomacy at times but there are also times (usually when it matters) when his diplomacy is so watered down and pointless he may as well have stayed in bed.
 
in reality what does a large number of western nations endorsing Palestine as a state actually... do? what is a possible/likely outcome of this? does it open the door in some way to new discussions about a two state solution or is it just words?
 
It’s obviously limited in terms of practical differences to people on the ground right now, but the majority of the Western powers have prevaricated over this for decades, and once done it’s very difficult to un-do. There’s a reason Netanyahu is furious about this.

In practical terms, the UK recognising a Palestinian state opens formal diplomatic channels with a recognised Palestinian government - though what shape that would take in the current circumstances is far from clear. It also means a Palestinian embassy would likely open in the UK in the near future.

In a broader sense, legally and practically it is much easier for Israel to achieve their goal of effectively erasing the Palestinian state if (as now) a big chunk of the Western powers don’t formally recognise that such a state exists in the first place.

Kosovo is an example of a disputed state that most countries *do* recognise, and while they’re still cut off from a lot of the benefits of full statehood by Serbia and Russia blocking them, at this point they are in virtually all practical and logistical senses a de facto independent country. Palestine’s situation is obviously a lot more difficult for a variety of reasons, but the more diplomatically isolated Isreal is in recognising their right to exist, the more feasible it becomes for them to operate as a somewhat functioning sovereign nation when the war ends, assuming they can assemble some kind of stable post-Hamas government.
 
I just don't think they give a fuck unless the US recognises Palestine. And MAGA has no interest in doing that. That would require them to do something honorable.
 
funky said:
I just don't think they give a fuck unless the US recognises Palestine. And MAGA has no interest in doing that. That would require them to do something honorable.
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Well, in the sense that they're likely to back off from their current approach of mass murder and starvation, no I don't think they do give a fuck. Clearly what's needed are actual sanctions.

It's more of a long-term investment in establishing a Palestinian state that a lot of countries have held off on before now.

To put it another way, let's say there was no change to global recognition, and at some point, the war did grind to a halt, as it must eventually. Most likely, Palestine would then find itself stuck in some version of the same limbo-state it's been stuck in for decades. With formal recognition from a majority of the G7 plus other major economies - even if that doesn't include the USA - that puts them in a much stronger position to establish something like sovereignty.

For what it's worth, I think next time the Democrats get in, they *might* be more inclined to pull the trigger on recognition if the alternative is being the only outlier rather than one of many. Especially given by the time they do have a chance to return to power, the thorny issue of whether or not international law has been broken by Israel and to what extent, will likely be a lot more legally settled and difficult to kick down the road.
 
I just don't get why the UK's conditions are all about treating Palestinian statehood as a threat to Israel when the French and Canadian conditions are about Palestine agreeing to function as a democratic, peaceful state (as they should be, in my opinion).

Did we pull the short straw and have to be the diplomatic bad cop or something?
 
It's important to remember that international recognition is a completely useless tool unless actually enforced. 'Nationhood' is an abstract social construct, not some kind of universal law. Spain, Ireland and Norway all "recognized" Palestinian statehood more than a year ago but have done nothing to actually bring it to reality. They haven't imposed any sanctions or pressure on Israel - in fact they continued all their diplomatic and economic ties with Israel (as far as I know). They've just been "vocal" about it. Which all amasses to nothing but moral grandstanding.

The West has done this before. Apartheid South Africa was "condemned" for decades but real pressure didn't happen until 1990. Kosovo recognized by 100+ countries for 15+ years now but no real aid to their sovereignty has been given - they still haven't even been given proper UN membership. Spain itself is still the weakest contributor to NATO, despite the Cold War and the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Not saying it's the West's obligation to pour resources into defending foreign statehood, but these public gestures of "recognition" are often lip-service with no real cost or sacrifice made to bring about real change. Recognition is used just as much for political ends like satisfying domestic constituencies and aligning with other foreign powers as much it is to express concern for the Palestinian people. I know y'all want to believe that governments are just out for justice, but "recognition" is still very much contingent on whether the nation in question fits with the INTERESTS of the pre-existing world. And even WHEN it's given, it still means nothing unless acted upon.

Maybe if the rest of Europe joins, real action will take place? Is anybody actually willing to eventually make Palestinian independence a major part of their foreign policy and spend billions on it?
 
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Hamas just declared that prospect of this Palestinian state is "one of the fruits of October 7"

these delusional Western leaders believing that giving the Palestinians a state is going to somehow deradicalize them and make them believe in peace with Israel is deranged
 
joanne said:
Hamas just declared that prospect of this Palestinian state is "one of the fruits of October 7"

these delusional Western leaders believing that giving the Palestinians a state is going to somehow deradicalize them and make them believe in peace with Israel is deranged
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FUCK OFF YOU GENOCIDAL LOON
 
Who believes Hamas can be deradicalised? A Palestinian state is dependent on a democratic government and that doesn’t include Hamas
 
joanne said:
Hamas just declared that prospect of this Palestinian state is "one of the fruits of October 7"

these delusional Western leaders believing that giving the Palestinians a state is going to somehow deradicalize them and make them believe in peace with Israel is deranged
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Bombing them, starving them and orphaning thousands on the other hand is guaranteed to deradicalise them :eyes:
 
AGinAg (37) said:
FUCK OFF YOU GENOCIDAL LOON
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?

funky said:
A Palestinian state is dependent on a democratic government and that doesn’t include Hamas
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a "democratic Palestinian government" is a Western delusion completely detached from the reality of the region

the PLO's main objective, just like Hamas, has always been eradicating the State of Israel. no more, no less
 
joanne said:
a "democratic Palestinian government" is a Western delusion completely detached from the reality of the region

the PLO's main objective, just like Hamas, has always been eradicating the State of Israel. no more, no less
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What's the alternative, the eradication of Palestine entirely?

If you support a two state solution, that necessitates the recognition of Palestine as a state!
 
joanne said:
?
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1000035130.jpg
 
I'll stop feeding the genocidal fascist troll now. It's all just pro-genocide propaganda. Get rid, in the fucking bin.
 
ZenGiraffe said:
What's the alternative, the eradication of Palestine entirely?

If you support a two state solution, that necessitates the recognition of Palestine as a state!
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I support a two state solution that entails Palestine following the denazification of Germany post-Hitler: education reform, media overhaul, public revoking, laws

but none of that is happening

it's just a symbolic recognition to punish Israel and unintentionally reward Hamas for Oct 7
 
joanne said:
erm... have i expressed a single "genocidal" opinion here?

do quote me.
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Every last one of your posts ignoring the genocide, but focusing on the details of how awful Hamas is, is clearly pro-Israel, therefore pro-genocide.

I'm sure you'll claim that the starvation of civilians is terrible WHEN PROMPTED, but no you come in complaining about a Palestinian state ignoring the actual horrors, because you're a heartless piece of right wing SHIT.
 
joanne said:
a "democratic Palestinian government" is a Western delusion completely detached from the reality of the region
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That’s HILARIOUS considering the West has largely fought for, campaigned for, bought and sold for, Israel for the last 60+ years. But when the West finally recognises that there’s two sides to this conflict, they’re ‘delusional’

Ok babes

joanne said:
the PLO's main objective, just like Hamas, has always been eradicating the State of Israel. no more, no less
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If we’re deciding whether a country has a right to exist based on whether they want to eradicate another state, that puts Israel in the bin before you have time to finish your nonsense sentence.

Try and make a bit more sense.
 
joanne said:
?



a "democratic Palestinian government" is a Western delusion completely detached from the reality of the region

the PLO's main objective, just like Hamas, has always been eradicating the State of Israel. no more, no less
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The Palestinian authority has recognized Israel in 1993. The current Palestinian authority in the West Bank has no project of eradicating Israel. Israel could have been dealing with a moderate authority in the Gaza as well but instead chose to support Hamas and I quote Natenyahu here, "Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas ... This is part of our strategy – to isolate the Palestinians in Gaza from the Palestinians in the West Bank."

The current Israeli regime needs as much denazification as Gaza.
 
If a two-state solution is to ever flourish or establish any traction in the area, both Netanyahu and antisemitic theocracies in the Middle East HAVE to go. That's the bare minimum prerequisite for an ideological reset in the area.
 
funky said:
That’s HILARIOUS considering the West has largely fought for, campaigned for, bought and sold for, Israel for the last 60+ years. But when the West finally recognises that there’s two sides to this conflict, they’re ‘delusional’

If we’re deciding whether a country has a right to exist based on whether they want to eradicate another state, that puts Israel in the bin before you have time to finish your nonsense sentence.

Try and make a bit more sense.
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Israel is a democratic country that grants its minorities (including Palestinians) equal rights, and has committed war crimes while fighting Hamas, just like the UK and the US have been committing war crimes in the Middle East for decades

Hamas is a literal terrorist organization, just like ISIS
 
AGinAg (37) said:
Every last one of your posts ignoring the genocide, but focusing on the details of how awful Hamas is, is clearly pro-Israel, therefore pro-genocide.

I'm sure you'll claim that the starvation of civilians is terrible WHEN PROMPTED, but no you come in complaining about a Palestinian state ignoring the actual horrors, because you're a heartless piece of right wing SHIT.
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there's no genocide going on in Gaza. the UN, which has demonstrated a consistent and disproportionate bias against Israel over the decades, has not declared it to be a genocide because here is no clear legal basis to label the Gaza war as genocide.. under the Genocide Convention, intent to destroy a group must be proven, not just civilian deaths or suffering. war crimes may have occurred, but genocide requires intent, not just impact. that burden of proof has not been met, no matter how much screeching and yapping is churned out on the streets and social media
 
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