Labour MPs have said for weeks that the outcome they most feared at the Gorton and Denton byelection was a Green party victory. On Friday morning, those fears were realised.
The Greens’ convincing win in the Manchester seat ... gives progressive voters a clear signal that they do not have to vote Labour to beat Reform – a signal that could prove catastrophic for the government in some of its strongest heartlands over the next few years.
“What makes this loss so consequential to Labour is not just the scale of the defeat but the message it sends to voters about future contests,” said the pollster Luke Tryl. “One of Labour’s ace cards had been the hope that, however frustrated or disillusioned progressive voters might be with the Starmer government, the threat of Reform would be enough to bring them back into the fold and reunite the left – a similar approach to President Macron’s re-election against Marine Le Pen [in France].
“But that argument risks collapsing following last night’s result.”