Oscars 2020: Who's in the race?

Jark

Jark

PLUMP and RIPE
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As ever I'm obsessively following the Oscars hype to see who's in the race - you can find critics' predictions updated daily on Gold Derby.

Big stories of this season so far include The Irishman getting wild rave reviews (tied with Parasite as the year's best-scored film on Metacritic with 95), opening up the possibility of a Netflix original winning Best Pic. Parasite is doing great business at the specialist box office (biggest average per screen on opening weekend since La La Land) and I think it's already the biggest Korean grosser in the US. Judy has done great and Renee is arguably still the Best Actress frontrunner.

On the blockbuster side of things, Joker is headed to a billion dollars and an almost certain nomination for Joaquin Phoenix in Best Actor, and Jennifer Lopez still seems to have plenty of hype for Supporting Actress in Hustlers. Once Upon A Time in Hollywood is a lock for Picture/Director/Actor, Adam Driver and Scar Jo are critically adored in Marriage Story, and Moopy faves like Laura Dern and Annette Bening are in the Supporting Actress mix.

Sam Mendes' 1917 hasn't been screened yet and the Roger Ailes sexual harassment story Bombshell is still under embargo but both are considered Best Picture threats with Charlize Theron looking good for another Best Actress nomination.

SO please tell me what you want to do well, what you think will do well, share precursor awards/nominations, predict in each category if you like, and generally GEEK OUT about the never-ending drama of AWARDS SEASON :disco:
 
I vote for Uncut Gems which doesn’t stand a chance, but it’s so much better and more interesting than 2-3 star fare like The Irishman and A Beautiful Day In The Neighbourhood.

I genuinely haven’t seen a deserving Best Actor performance yet but again, it sounds crazy but Adam Sandler is seriously good here and does stand a chance of a nomination.
 
Here are my predictions for the big ones

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Al Pacino (The Irishman)
2. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
3. Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time...)
4. Willem Defoe (The Lighthouse)
5. Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
2. Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
3. Shuzhen Zhou (The Farewell)
4. Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
5. Florence Pugh (Little Women)

BEST ACTOR
1. Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
2. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
3. Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time...)
5. Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Renee Zellweger (Judy)
2. Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
3. Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
4. Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
5. Awkwafina (The Farewell)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
2. Sam Mendes (1917)
3. Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time...)
4. Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
5. Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)

BEST PICTURE
1. The Irishman
2. Marriage Story
3. Parasite
4. Once Upon a Time...
5. 1917
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Little Women
8. Bombshell
9. Joker
10. The Two Popes
 
That Bombshell film looks like fun :disco:

I saw The Farewell the other day and had no idea it was Awkwafina in the lead until the credits rolled. It's an interesting film but I wouldn't say she does anything special in it.
 
The reviews have been mixed, but I think the strong box office performance for Harriet makes Cynthia Erivo a real threat for Best Actress.

Hoping Antonio Banderas can sneak his first nomination for Pain & Glory too, there seems to be a lot of goodwill towards him right now.

The Farewell I haven't seen yet but it kind of feels like maybe it peaked too soon?
 
Christian Bale In Le Mans 66 is his best performance yet IMO, but I can’t decide whether it’s Lead or Supporting, which means the Academy will likely ignore it altogether.
 
He looks like absolute shit in the trailer. All that dramatic weight gain and loss over the years has aged him horribly.
 
Jark said:
Here are my predictions for the big ones

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Al Pacino (The Irishman)
2. Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
3. Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time...)
4. Willem Defoe (The Lighthouse)
5. Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
2. Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers)
3. Shuzhen Zhou (The Farewell)
4. Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
5. Florence Pugh (Little Women)

BEST ACTOR
1. Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
2. Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
3. Robert De Niro (The Irishman)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time...)
5. Eddie Murphy (Dolemite is My Name)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Renee Zellweger (Judy)
2. Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
3. Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
4. Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
5. Awkwafina (The Farewell)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
2. Sam Mendes (1917)
3. Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time...)
4. Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
5. Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story)

BEST PICTURE
1. The Irishman
2. Marriage Story
3. Parasite
4. Once Upon a Time...
5. 1917
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Little Women
8. Bombshell
9. Joker
10. The Two Popes
Click to expand...

Tom Hanks can’t be supporting, it’s a biopic and he’s playing the lead. The Lighthouse is just too alienating to get anything.

1917 looks like every other dreary world war 2 movie (i seriously hate the genre) and I also did not like Jojo.

The Farewell is an excellent movie but probably for screenplay which seems to be A24’s forte.

I would love it if the rich mother from Parasite managed a supporting actress nomination (everyone in the cast deserves a nomination).

Little Women has been well received so I’m hoping a director nomination for Greta.
 
Phoenix said:
Tom Hanks can’t be supporting, it’s a biopic and he’s playing the lead. The Lighthouse is just too alienating to get anything.
Click to expand...
Haven't seen it but everything I've read suggests Matthew Rhys is lead and has much more screen time...
 
I have seen it and Tom Hanks is very much a supporting role. It’s not a biopic at all and another dull Father/Son story about “My DAD DIDN’T LOVE ME” under the guise of a Mr. Rogers story. Has very little to do with him at all.
 
I'm not exactly sure how someone is elegible for a nomination, but don't they try sometimes an actor with a lead role for the supporting one, because they have a better chance? I read about this somewhere but I'm not sure how that works.
 
The studios submit as they see fit and there has been many instances where they submit a lead actor or actress in supporting for a guarantee or a better chance in winning (happens a lot with actresses because lead actress is usually stacked).
 
Phoenix said:
The studios submit as they see fit and there has been many instances where they submit a lead actor or actress in supporting for a guarantee or a better chance in winning (happens a lot with actresses because lead actress is usually stacked).
Click to expand...
Absolute worst example of that was Jamie Foxx being submitted and nominated in Supporting for Collateral despite being the clear lead who is in every single scene. He never stood a chance anyway as he was clearly winning lead for Ray in the same year.
 
VoR said:
He looks like absolute shit in the trailer. All that dramatic weight gain and loss over the years has aged him horribly.
Click to expand...

I assume you mean he LOOKS like shit, rather than his performance looks like shit. Love him or hate him, he's an extraordinarily talented actor in everything he ever does.
 
Antonio Banderas just got a significant boost with a win for Best Actor at the New York Critic's Circle Awards. Lupita Nyong'o also won Best Actress for Us. Laura Dern and Joe Pesci won the supporting awards.
 
I think Lupita’s best bet is a nomination but she won’t win.

It seems that The Irishman is collecting all the Best Picture awards. I think it’s between it and Once Upon A Time.
 
I’m hoping Timmy might scrape a supporting nod for Little Women since all the reviews are picking him out. :disco:
 
Golden Globe movie nominations

Best Motion Picture - Drama

The Irishman
Marriage Story
1917
Joker
The Two Popes

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

Dolemite Is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman

Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

Christian Bale - Ford vs Ferrari/Le Mans '66
Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory
Adam Driver - Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes

Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

Daniel Craig - Knives Out
Roman Griffin Davis - Jojo Rabbit
Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton - Rocketman
Eddie Murphy - Dolemite Is My Name

Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

Cynthia Erivo - Harriet
Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
Charlize Theron - Bombshell
Renée Zellweger - Judy

Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

Awkwafina - The Farewell
Ana de Armas - Knives Out
Beanie Feldstein - Booksmart
Emma Thompson - Late Night
Cate Blanchett - Where'd You Go, Bernadette?

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks -A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes
Al Pacino - The Irishman
Joe Pesci - The Irishman
Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell
Annette Bening - The Report
Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers (:disco:)
Margot Robbie - Bombshell

Best Director

Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time In Hollywood
Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
Sam Mendes - 1917
Todd Phillips - Joker

Best Screenplay

The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite
The Two Popes
Once Upon A Time In Hollywood

Best Original Song

Beautiful Ghosts - Cats (Taylor Swift)
(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again - Rocketman (Elton John)
Spirit - The Lion King (Beyonce)
Stand Up - Harriet (Cynthia Erivo)
Into the Unknown - Frozen II (Idina Menzel)

Best Original Score
Daniel Pemberton - Motherless Brooklyn
Alexandre Desplat - Little Women
Hildur Guðnadóttir - Joker
Thomas Newman - 1917
Randy Newman - Marriage Story

Best Animated Feature

Frozen II
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
The Lion King
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
 
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Most noms:

6: Marriage Story
5: The Irishman, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood
4: Joker, The Two Popes
3: Knives Out, Rocketman, 1917
2: Bombshell, Dolemite Is My Name, Jojo Rabbit, Harriet, Parasite, Frozen II, Little Women

Notable snubs

Robert DeNiro - The Irishman (Looks like that one's all about Pesci vs Pacino for the supporting nomination)
Greta Gerwig - Little Women, Marielle Heller - A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood (All-male Best Director lineup again...)
Adam Sandler - Uncut Gems
Aladdin - Speechless in best song (Good, it was crap)

Little Women kind of got screwed overall with only two nominations, one of those being score.

Most surprising nomination is probably Cate Blanchett in Where'd You Go Bernadette, a film nobody saw. It wasn't even reviewed well.
 
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god what a VERY BORING season this is going to be
 
The Farewell in Foreign is a big :manson:

It seems like Little Women is not going to make a dent, good reactions but not stellar and women can’t be awarded for being just good.

Where’d You Go Bernadette was alright, the globes always go for something obscure.
 
I loved that comedy Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, especially the bit where Brad Pitt smashed a woman's face against a marble fireplace. It was HILARIOUS.

Not a vintage selection although I'm here for that glorified TV movie that is Bombshell. Marriage Story looks like one of those terribly earnest and deep down terribly conservative late 70s / early 80s American films like Kramer VS Kramer and Ordinary People, even the lightning in the film suggests they're going for that.
 
Tbh in such an uninspiring year Parasite and Pain And Glory should REALLY be getting a lot more noms despite being foreign language (was Burning a 2019 film? That should have won EVERY AWARD GOING!)

At least Bombshell looks FUN!
 
There is a VERY OBVIOUS OMISSION for Best Supporting Actress :angry::disco:

Untitled.jpg
 
Screen Actors Guild Award Nominations

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
CHRISTIAN BALE / Ken Miles – “FORD v FERRARI”
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / Rick Dalton -- “ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD”
ADAM DRIVER / Charlie Barber – “MARRIAGE STORY”
TARON EGERTON / Elton John – “ROCKETMAN”
JOAQUIN PHOENIX / Arthur Fleck – “JOKER”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
CYNTHIA ERIVO / Harriet/Minty – “HARRIET”
SCARLETT JOHANSSON / Nicole Barber – “MARRIAGE STORY”
LUPITA NYONG’O / Adelaide Wilson/Red – “US”
CHARLIZE THERON / Megyn Kelly – “BOMBSHELL”
RENÉE ZELLWEGER / Judy Garland – “JUDY”

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
JAMIE FOXX / Walter McMillian – “JUST MERCY”
TOM HANKS / Fred Rogers – “A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD”
AL PACINO / Jimmy Hoffa – “THE IRISHMAN”
JOE PESCI / Russell Bufalino – “THE IRISHMAN”
BRAD PITT / Cliff Booth – “ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
LAURA DERN / Nora Fanshaw – “MARRIAGE STORY”
SCARLETT JOHANSSON / Rosie – “JOJO RABBIT
NICOLE KIDMAN / Gretchen Carlson – “BOMBSHELL”
JENNIFER LOPEZ / Ramona – “HUSTLERS”
MARGOT ROBBIE / Kayla Pospisil – “BOMBSHELL”

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
BOMBSHELL
CONNIE BRITTON / Beth Ailes
ALLISON JANNEY / Susan Estrich
NICOLE KIDMAN / Gretchen Carlson
JOHN LITHGOW / Roger Ailes
MALCOLM McDOWELL / Rupert Murdoch
KATE McKINNON / Jess Carr
MARGOT ROBBIE / Kayla Pospisil
CHARLIZE THERON / Megyn Kelly

THE IRISHMAN
BOBBY CANNAVALE / Skinny Razor
ROBERT DE NIRO / Frank Sheeran
STEPHEN GRAHAM / Anthony “Tony Pro” Provenzano
HARVEY KEITEL / Angelo Bruno
AL PACINO / Jimmy Hoffa
ANNA PAQUIN / Older Peggy Sheeran
JOE PESCI / Russell Bufalino
RAY ROMANO / Bill Bufalino

JOJO RABBIT
ALFIE ALLEN / Finkel
ROMAN GRIFFIN DAVIS / Jojo
SCARLETT JOHANSSON / Rosie
THOMASIN McKENZIE / Elsa
STEPHEN MERCHANT / Deertz
SAM ROCKWELL / Capt. Klenzendorf
TAIKA WAITITI / Adolf
REBEL WILSON / Fraulein Rahm

ONCE UPON A TIME…IN HOLLYWOOD
AUSTIN BUTLER / Tex
JULIA BUTTERS / Trudi
BRUCE DERN / George Spahn
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / Rick Dalton
DAKOTA FANNING / Squeaky Fromme
EMILE HIRSCH / Jay Sebring
DAMIAN LEWIS / Steve McQueen
MIKE MOH / Bruce Lee
TIMOTHY OLYPHANT / James Stacy
AL PACINO / Marvin Schwarz
LUKE PERRY / Wayne Maunder
BRAD PITT / Cliff Booth
MARGARET QUALLEY / Pussycat
MARGOT ROBBIE / Sharon Tate

PARASITE
HYAE JIN CHANG / Chung Sook
YEO JEONG CHO / Yeon Kyo
WOO SHIK CHOI / Ki Woo
HYEON JUN JUNG / Da Song
ZISO JUNG / Da Hye
JUNG EUN LEE / Moon Gwang
SUN KYUN LEE / Dong Ik
MYUNG HOON PARK / Geun Se
SO DAM PARK / Ki Jung
KANG HO SONG / Ki Taek
 
Another miss for De Niro, his campaign looks close to dead in the water.

Good day for Taron Egerton. SAG and Globe nominations make him a strong contender for a Rocketman nom. Which it seems may come at Antonio Banderas' expense.

Cynthia Erivo firmly in the Best Actress mix now. Lupita back in the race after her Golden Globes snub, Little Women shut out again. That could be the shock Oscar flop of the season the way things are going. Awkwafina may also miss out for The Farewell.

The Two Popes is the only notable shut-out in Supporting Actor. I haven't heard anything about that Jamie Foxx movie so it may be a SAG quirk. Pitt, Hanks, Pesci and Pacino look fairly nailed on, so there's just that one open slot to play for.

J.Lo and Laura Dern cement their frontrunner statuses for Best Supporting Actress. Margot Robbie facing a split with Nicole Kidman there, but maintains momentum for the Oscar nomination.
 
Is it a weak year? Also it’s not an awards movie, Hereditary had Toni and was more plausible and didn’t get in.
 
Pleased to see Lupita nominated - I think her performance was astonishing and I really love it when horror movies do well.
 
Current odds from GoldDerby

SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time
2. Al Pacino - The Irishman
3. Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood
4. Joe Pesci - The Irishman
5. Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Laura Dern - Marriage Story
2. Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers
3. Margot Robbie - Bombshell
4. Zhao Shuzhen - The Farewell
5. Florence Pugh - Little Women

BEST ACTOR
1. Joaquin Phoenix - Joker
2. Adam Driver - Marriage Story
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
4. Antonio Banderas - Pain & Glory
5. Robert De Niro - The Irishman

BEST ACTRESS
1. Charlize Theron - Bombshell
2. Renee Zellweger - Judy
3. Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story
4. Saoirse Ronan - Little Women
5. Awkwafina - The Farewell

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Martin Scorsese - The Irishman
2. Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Bong Joon Ho - Parasite
4. Sam Mendes - 1917
5. Noah Baumbach - Marriage Story

BEST PICTURE
1. The Irishman
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
3. Marriage Story
4. Parasite
5. 1917
6. Jojo Rabbit
7. Joker
8. Little Women
9. Ford v Ferrari
10. Bombshell

more here
 
National Society of Film Critics announced yesterday

Best Picture
Parasite (runners up Little Women, Once Upon...)

Best Screenplay
Parasite (runners up Little Women, Once Upon...)

Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt, Once Upon... (runners up Jo Pesci/Wesley Snipes/Song Kang Ho)

Supporting Actress
Laura Dern, Marriage Story (runners up J-Lo/Florence Pugh)

Best Actor
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory (runners up Adam Driver/Adam Sandler)

Best Actress
Mary Kay Place, Diane (runners up Florence Pugh/Zhao Tao)

Parasite is all momentum right now and I don't see it slowing down. It won't be nominated in acting categories but I think a win is perfectly possible in director, maybe even best pic at this rate.
 
Oh wow, it looks the first Oscar nomination for Banderas is a lock.
 
parasite is absolutely a-buzzing. i haven't seen it (or little women) yet but if the other competition is once upon a time or the irishman then brang it own.

i hope banderas gets the oscar. though driver was good too.
 
ugh, i forgot about phoenix.

yeah, yeah, banderas has no chance, i know.
 
Laura Dern just won the Golden Globe. I’d say that puts her down as a lock for the Oscar. The Golden Globes are notorious starfuckers, so if J.Lo can’t win that it’s over...
 
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