The War in Ukraine

the pleasure principal said:
negotiation, how else? india and china seem to be capable of doing it.

the fact we're even in this situation is a complete failure of leadership on all sides.

this is worth a read: https://truthout.org/articles/noam-chomsky-a-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine-could-unleash-untold-violence/
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Of course it would. That's why it's not implemented (the problem wouldn't stop at the declaration, since you would have to defend its violation, and that would result to a generic escalation). But the discussion about it, serves as a diplomatic weapon. It's on the same level of bluff as is the invader's mention of nukes. Would they resort to a nuclear war? Of course they wouldn't. But having talked about it, keeps everyone's military out. Did the bluff work? Of course it did. Sometimes bluffs are involved in the process and sometimes you have to negotiate with it. So do I think Zelenskyy really wants this or expects that it will be done? No I don't. But I understand he needs to have something to pressure with on the negotiation table, even if this is ultimately a bluff. What's more, I was watching him yesterday saying that he is ready to go into negotiations and compromises. Now speaking of compromises especially when you are invaded takes a lot of political courage. He added that these compromises cannot be sth that would signify betrayal or treason to his country, which of course is understandable politically but kind of signals that the will is real, the intention is serious and tries to make a consensus on understanding some things will be acceptable and some things will not. And in my opinion it's on everyone's interest that any compromises made are somewhat limited and in a sense logical, cause if they are not it sets a bad precedent in general where everyone can ask anything from anyone. Maybe I am simplistic in the way I see it, I don't know, but that's just my view. Also I have to say that I agree with what you've implied about the flaws of our democracies but as has been said over and over, nothing is perfect, and when it's not, one tries to live with the least worse choices.
 
I don't think anyone in here disputes the reasons why Putin *chose* to go to war. But there's a difference between reasons given and justification. There's no justification for an invasion of a sovereign state and the slaughter of it's people.

Yes, we know America is meddling and I hate that too. Yes, we know NATO expansion has riled up Putin, but NATO remains a defensive organisation not an attack one (and it's not like Putin doesn't have his equivalent in CSTO). Yes, we know there are elements of far right such as the Azov regiment, and generally that's not fucking okay either. None of these are justifications for what followed.

But one truth remains, and that Ukraine as an independent nation decided in which direction they wanted to take their country. That direction was democratic values, it was fair elections. That was demonstrated in the revolutions of 2014 and in the last presidential election when Zelenskyy won almost every single ward in the second round voting of the last election.

To state that Putin's reasons are justification enough are frankly, victim shaming. Apologies for the crude reductiveness, but it's like saying women should be raped because they wore a short skirt on a night out.

It's not goodies versus baddies and I'm not entirely comfortable with idolising Zelenskyy because he does have his flaws, but he has done exactly what he should be doing in the last couple of weeks in standing up for his country and fighting a war which is not justifiable.

This war will probably end up being settled in negotiation. Probably, after a long protracted fight. I fucking hope it ends sooner, but equally I wouldn't want to see Putin's shambolic reasons for invading being given any credibility either. Ukraine can join NATO if it wants to (even though it wasn't on the table), Ukraine can maintain a military presence if it wants to (because what, Ukraine agrees to demilitarise and then Putin rolls in again five years later and Ukraine can't defend itself? LOL) and Ukraine can be best friends with the US if it wants to, and all because Ukraine is an independent, sovereign nation which can make it's own fucking decisions as long as it's not attacking anyone.
 


The Foreign office twitter had to delete one of the edgy graphics about oligarchs sanctioned was not a picture of Dmitri Lebedev, but former Russian President Dmitri Medvedev :manson:

 
So someone told me that Abramovich had stated (before sanctions) that he planned to write off the debt to Chelsea sale and hand over 1.5b to UKraine aid... now I don't know at all what is true, but if he really is tied financially and strategically to the Russian Government as has been claimed, there's no way he would publically state that about Ukraine aid? I'm confused...
 
funky said:
So someone told me that Abramovich had stated (before sanctions) that he planned to write off the debt to Chelsea sale and hand over 1.5b to UKraine aid... now I don't know at all what is true, but if he really is tied financially and strategically to the Russian Government as has been claimed, there's no way he would publically state that about Ukraine aid? I'm confused...
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Suspect he may have been trying to distance himself before it was too late?
 
funky said:
So someone told me that Abramovich had stated (before sanctions) that he planned to write off the debt to Chelsea sale and hand over 1.5b to UKraine aid... now I don't know at all what is true, but if he really is tied financially and strategically to the Russian Government as has been claimed, there's no way he would publically state that about Ukraine aid? I'm confused...
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Used for the benefit of ALL victims of the war
 
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:D

589D6DF7-652E-4C7E-A324-2F3DF357FB21.jpeg
 
God can you imagine what would happen if, say, France invaded the UK. Instant triumph! “We shot a few plastic bullets into the ground and the nancies went running into the wood” IN FRENCH OBVIOUSLY
 
Indie said:
I don't think anyone in here disputes the reasons why Putin *chose* to go to war. But there's a difference between reasons given and justification. There's no justification for an invasion of a sovereign state and the slaughter of it's people.

Yes, we know America is meddling and I hate that too. Yes, we know NATO expansion has riled up Putin, but NATO remains a defensive organisation not an attack one (and it's not like Putin doesn't have his equivalent in CSTO). Yes, we know there are elements of far right such as the Azov regiment, and generally that's not fucking okay either. None of these are justifications for what followed.

But one truth remains, and that Ukraine as an independent nation decided in which direction they wanted to take their country. That direction was democratic values, it was fair elections. That was demonstrated in the revolutions of 2014 and in the last presidential election when Zelenskyy won almost every single ward in the second round voting of the last election.

To state that Putin's reasons are justification enough are frankly, victim shaming. Apologies for the crude reductiveness, but it's like saying women should be raped because they wore a short skirt on a night out.

It's not goodies versus baddies and I'm not entirely comfortable with idolising Zelenskyy because he does have his flaws, but he has done exactly what he should be doing in the last couple of weeks in standing up for his country and fighting a war which is not justifiable.

This war will probably end up being settled in negotiation. Probably, after a long protracted fight. I fucking hope it ends sooner, but equally I wouldn't want to see Putin's shambolic reasons for invading being given any credibility either. Ukraine can join NATO if it wants to (even though it wasn't on the table), Ukraine can maintain a military presence if it wants to (because what, Ukraine agrees to demilitarise and then Putin rolls in again five years later and Ukraine can't defend itself? LOL) and Ukraine can be best friends with the US if it wants to, and all because Ukraine is an independent, sovereign nation which can make it's own fucking decisions as long as it's not attacking anyone.
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i genuinely admire your conviction, indie, do israel and palestine next.

speaking of crude reductiveness, i'll have one more go. you believe short skirts do not mean consent but there's this guy on the other side of the world who does not agree - to him the concept that they are not an invitation for sex is ridiculous. you are so convinced that he is wrong and you are right that you make it your mission to go there and get him to change his mind, in violent fashion if necessary. this is what you still don't get about the world, it is not in your image and people with opposite convictions are just as sure they are right in theirs.

to me your solution reads like the ending of an avengers movie, which is not to say i wouldn't get on board with it, but fat chance.

i think some of russia's grievances (nato and the violence in eastern ukraine) have to be addressed in good faith before escalating this conflict any further. take nato off the table and give ukraine neutrality (akin to austria after the world war ii - yannis varoufakis was suggesting this, if i recall correctly) or put it on a path to eu membership if its people want to go west*. put peacekeeping troops in eastern ukraine if the government is unable/unwilling to deal with far-right militias and russian separatists there.

nato is dominated by the usa and is openly adversarial towards russia. it needs to be reformed and reframed if it's to have credibility as anything other than a covert instrument of us hegemony. want to talk about nato's "illegal but legitimate" actions if you hold the word of international law above all else? i live a hundred kilometers away from places nato bombed with its "defense" missiles just over 20 years ago.

*i have a thing or two to say about "self-determination" and the "one truth remaining" you speak of but this is getting tldr. who is to say what the ukrainian people really want? they've been groomed to believe they need to choose between the usa and russia by the usa and russia for decades. where was the outrage over ukraine sovereignty when us officials were picking its government? how many people are parroting "close the sky" without knowing what it actually calls for? is brexit really what the uk people wanted? did they fully understand the consequences of the choice they were making? did someone manipulate their choice? and the uk is a country with long democratic traditions.

ps i flagrantly reject the framing that i'm justifying russia's invasion. i do not so please refrain from impying it.
 
the pleasure principal said:
i genuinely admire your conviction, indie, do israel and palestine next.
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It is entirely possible to be angry about more than one thing, if that's the implication. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia have their own questions to answer about Palestine and Yemen respectively. But that's not the point here, so anyway.

speaking of crude reductiveness, i'll have one more go. you believe short skirts do not mean consent but there's this guy on the other side of the world who does not agree - to him the concept that they are not an invitation for sex is ridiculous. you are so convinced that he is wrong and you are right that you make it your mission to go there and get him to change his mind, in violent fashion if necessary. this is what you still don't get about the world, it is not in your image and people with opposite convictions are just as sure they are right in theirs.
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We are not going agree here. But for example if Belarus wants to be an autocratic Russian leaning state, then that's fine. If Armenia wants to be part of the Russian defensive alliance, also fine. If Cuba wants to be communist, great. If China wants to be a one party 'socialist' state, it can do what it wants. I have no problem with any of this and I am not in any way wanting to whitewash/democratise/change the world in my image.

Opposite convictions do not merit invasion.

I won't go into anymore replies than that because we've made our positions clear already. Although in terms of Brexit, yes, we voted for that. It is shit but doesn't mean i don't believe it.
 
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Indie said:
It is entirely possible to be angry about more than one thing, if that's the implication. Both Israel and Saudi Arabia have their own questions to answer about Palestine and Yemen respectively. But that's not the point here, so anyway.

We are not going agree here. But for example if Belarus wants to be an autocratic Russian leaning state, then that's fine. If Armenia wants to be part of the Russian defensive alliance, also fine. If Cuba wants to be communist, great. If China wants to be a one party 'socialist' state, it can do what it wants. I have no problem with any of this and I am not in any way wanting to whitewash/democratise/change the world in my image.

Opposite convictions do not merit invasion.

I won't go into anymore replies than that because we've made our positions clear already. Although in terms of Brexit, yes, we voted for that. It is shit but doesn't mean i don't believe it.
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thank you for your considered replies in this thread, indie, i think we are very close on most things.

i am firmly on the side of democracy - it's an existential choice for me as the other side often wants to deny my very right to exist. for example, i would like to see the people of belarus and china being afforded the same fundamental rights i have regardless of whose sphere of influence or regime they have found themselves under but i don't think nato is the answer.
 
Sometimes it feels like Putin has effectively already got what he wanted. He flexed his military muscles, annexed more land, warned the West, caused bloody chaos, and created an overwhelming refugee crisis.

Yes, the West and much of the world is united, but I doubt that will hold up if the West becomes weaker and power starts shifting.
 
KindaCool said:
Sometimes it feels like Putin has effectively already got what he wanted. He flexed his military muscles, annexed more land, warned the West, caused bloody chaos, and created an overwhelming refugee crisis.

Yes, the West and much of the world is united, but I doubt that will hold up if the West becomes weaker and power starts shifting.
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How will the West become weaker?
 
Ag said:
How will the West become weaker?
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Few ways I think.

The biggest factor will be the continuous spending on military aid. The West is pouring enormous amounts of money into this because there's so much on the line. USA just passed another bill dedicating $14 billion to Ukraine, and this number will contnue to rise. To cope with incurring costs, America will continue to print more money, which it's ALREADY been doing for years to cover its awful national debt and ongoing pandemic costs. Printing money to keep up with costs, especially ones brought on by large-scale military conflict, has contributed to the fall of many empires in the past.

I don't know Europe's spending patterns, but they cannot do this without America.

The sanctions are starting to make their mark now too. Gas prices are through the roof here. This will only highlight how terrible the wealth inequality is in America and cause more internal conflict between the rich and the poor. Check your favorite social media for the latest gas price memes!

Refugee crises in the recent past have caused conflict between Western nations before, and this one is one of the worst we've seen. 2 million refugees in 2 weeks is insane. I think this will put a lot of pressure on the union between Western nations. The UK is already making a mess of it.

And if China decides to respond by providing economic support to Russia, then it might be game over.
 
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This is an interesting thread on Russian influence in the UK including our very own PM and The Telegraph.

 
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